Tropical Cyclone TC23S (Kalunde)

[Aslkahuna]

is located 310 SE of Diego Garcia with winds of 40kt. It is moving WNW at 7kt and is expected to turn to the SW and intensify to 80kt over the next 48 hours. Satellite imagery indicates that the system is slightly sheared but does show banding features and is expected to become better organized.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

Tropical Cyclone TC23S (Kalunde) is located 305 SSE of Diego Garcia with winds of 50kt. The storm is moving WSW at 7 kt and and is expected to turn to the SW and intensify to 90kt over the next 48 hours. Latest satellite imagery shows the storm is winding up but that both outflow and convection are restricted in the eastern semicircle.

Steve

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Another development I missed! Time to do some tracking and watching now that the puter is runnin good again!

[Aslkahuna]

Tropical Cyclone TC23S (Kalunde) is located 370 SSW of Diego Garcia with winds of 115kt. It is moving WSW at 8kt and is expected to track SW as it intensifies to 140kt over the next 48 hours. Outflow conditions in the eastern semicircle which were restricted yesterday improved greatly overnight and the storm responded with rapid intensification and is now a very well developed system with a noticeable symmetric eye. However, the very latest satellite imagery shows an erosion of the convection on the west side of the storm due either to some shear or possible dry air intrusion. At face value this would suggest that the storm has peaked if this is not a temporary situation. The next several hours of imagery should establish a clear cut trend as to whether or not the forecast intensification is likely or not. In the meantime, the storm remains very compact with 34 kt winds extending only 115 miles from the center.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

Tropical Cyclone TC23S (Kalunde) has definitely established a clear cut intensity trend and the storm has bombed. It is located 395 SSW of Diego Garcia and in the past 6 hours has intensified from 115kt to 140kt. The earlier assymmetry in the storm beganu to disappear by 00Z and the latest satellite imagery on this system (which is posted on my SH Summary page on my homepage) is awesome. The storm is expected to further intensify to 160kt. Fortunately, there are no landmasses threatened by this system.

Steve

[vbhoutex]

Wow!! Glad this one isn't in our neck of the woods!!! IE the GOM!!!

Quick question, which I guess has an obvious answer, but I'm gonna ask anyway. I know this is the active season in the Indian Ocean, and I know that there is some influence to our season from what goes on during the IO season. From what I'm seeing I would expect that we may have a more active or volatile CV season than normal, which in fact might start up early. Am I way off base or what is the answer?

[Aslkahuna]

we are tracking storms in the Southern Indian Ocean and such systems have no connection with the CV storms. However, those waves that transit Africa originate in the Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Trough in the Summer. However, since this Trough is usually up over land during the Summer we don't see anywhere near as much activity in the NIO as we do in the SIO. To put what has been happening in the Southern Hemisphere in perspective, we ended January with Cyclone number 13 and now we are at 23. The total number of storms is running somewhat above average for the season and this may translate to more action across Africa when the Northern Hemisphere becomes active. What is unusual is that we don't normally see this kind of activity in the SIO when there is a Niño in progress.

Steve

[vbhoutex]

Thanks for the clarification Steve! Shows I still have a lot to learn!! I was wondering if an active El Nino had anything to do with what appeared to me to be more storms than I would expect.

[mf_dolphin]

Great information Steve! Thanks

[Aslkahuna]

Tropical Cyclone TC23S (Kalunde) is located near 15.4S 68.8E in the South Indian Ocean with winds of 120kt. The storm is moving SW at 7kt and is expected to turn south and weaken to 110kt as it approaches cooler water in 48 hours. Kalunde peaked yesterday at 140kt and has begun the long wind down of a mature cyclone. There has been a minor loss of symmetry with the system but it basically remains well organized and intense at this time.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

Tropical Cyclone TC23S (Kalunde) is located near 16.8S 67.0E with winds
of 100 kt. It is moving SW at 5kt and is expected to turn towards the South as weaken to 75kt as it gains latitude. Latest satellite imagery shows erosion of the eyewall and a general decrease in symmetry and organization as the storm is moving over cooler water and probably entraining somewhat drier air. Further weakening is expected as the storm encounters increasing shear as it gains latitude.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

Tropical Cyclone TC23S (Kalunde) is located near 18.0S 65.5E with winds of 100kt. The storm is moving SW at 4kt and is expected to continue moving SW as it weakens to 70kt over the next 48 hours. The storm has completed an eyewall replacement cycle and has reintensified slightly. It is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler water and encounters increasing shear as it gains latitude.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

Tropical Cyclone TC23S (Kalunde) is located near 19.0S 64.2E with winds of 105kt. The storm is moving SW at 3 kt and is expected to turn towards the south and weaken slowly to 90kt over the next 48 hours as it gains latitude.

Steve

[vbhoutex]

Gains latitude sounds weird to me when one is talking of going in a southerly direction. I guess that is because if you gain latitude in the Northern Hemisphere you go N to gain latitude.

BTW Steve, are all IO storms named Tropical Cyclones, typhoons or what?

[Aslkahuna]

tropical systems are referred to as Tropical Cyclones though in the IO (both sides) they may also be referred to as just Cyclones. The Aussies have a local term but basically nothing in the Southern Hemisphere has caught the popular fancy like the terms Hurricane or Typhoon.

I know it seems strange to use the term gaining latitude when referring to a southward track, but it's correct usage as the SH storm is heading for a higher latitude when it takes a poleward track to the south.

Steve

[chadtm80]

Thanks for the info!

[Aslkahuna]

Tropical Cyclone TC23S (Kalunde) is located near 20.6S 64.2E with winds of 75kt. The storm is moving SSE at 6kt and is expected to move generally southward as it begins to transition into an extratropical system. The storm has weakened markedly over the past 12 hours as drier air has entrained into the system. The pronounced eye has disappeared and the storm has lost much of its symmetery.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

Tropical Cyclone TC23S (Kalunde) is located near 23.2S 65.4E with winds
of 65kt. The storm is tracking SSE at 6kt and is expected to generally
track south and weaken to 35kt over the next 48 hours. The latest satellite imagery shows that the storm is entraining drier air and is encountering shear.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

Tropical Cyclone TC23S (Kalunde) is located near 26.4S 65.6E with winds of 40kt. The system is strongly sheared and rapidly becoming extratropical
It is expected to be fully extraopical within the next 12-24 hours. This will be my final update on TC23S

Steve