Better Organized...

[MWatkins]

It appears there is enough deep convection and plenty of well-defined bands to lift the system to TS Earl at 5pm. Models and t-numbers will be out within the hour.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

MW

[NorthGaWeather]

Aren't T-numbers up to 2.5

[Swimdude]

Well, I dont think anyone's really too surprised about this report. In fact, I was expecting it to occur earlier. Anyone know where this might go if it passes south of Cuba? Or is that high pressure in the middle of the US not going anywhere?

[jlauderdal]

Well, I dont think anyone's really too surprised about this report. In fact, I was expecting it to occur earlier. Anyone know where this might go if it passes south of Cuba? Or is that high pressure in the middle of the US not going anywhere?

Miami NWs likes the gfs/ukmet solution right now...

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. PWAT'S NEAR 2 INCHES THIS
MORNING WILL DROP A LITTLE OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. POPS
WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO SUN AND MON. BY TUE...A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASE IN POPS. AFTER THE
WAVE GOES BY...POPS DROP AGAIN. BUT BY THU...MOISTURE INCREASES
FAIRLY WELL IN SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL ENTITY
IN THE CARRIBEAN WHICH IS CURRENTLY T.D. #5.

[Weatherboy1]

At this point, it seems to me like TD#5/soon-to-be Earl will follow a Charley-type path, but not recurve in the NW Caribbean like he did. That's because it doesn't look like there will be a strong front dipping south far enough to scoop him up. This is probably a GOMEX or Mexico concern longer-term. It could always plow into the Northern Caribbean islands or head through the FL straits, but given its low latitude starting point and other factors, I think a track south of Cuba near Jamaica and then into the Gulf or Yucatan is more likely.

[Guest]

there are several ensembles from 12z gfs 500mb that are within the realm of every possible scenerio. which one do you want to believe...well I say more trough and less ridge for the east, based on the trend this summer and the models probably biasing.

[MWatkins]

Yes...indeed we have tropical storm Earl at 5PM.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR.0408141859

MW

[southerngale]

Here we go...

[rbaker]

taking a very similar track, but I prefer to wait until 3 days out instead of 5. But, trough has been pretty consistant in gom, is it strong enough to pull another cane further north like Charley? Well see. I don't see anything in front Earl for it not to be a hurricane down the line into the Caribbean.