It appears there is enough deep convection and plenty of well-defined bands to lift the system to TS Earl at 5pm. Models and t-numbers will be out within the hour.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
MW
Better Organized...
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6771
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Swimdude wrote:Well, I dont think anyone's really too surprised about this report. In fact, I was expecting it to occur earlier. Anyone know where this might go if it passes south of Cuba? Or is that high pressure in the middle of the US not going anywhere?
Miami NWs likes the gfs/ukmet solution right now...
SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. PWAT'S NEAR 2 INCHES THIS
MORNING WILL DROP A LITTLE OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. POPS
WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO SUN AND MON. BY TUE...A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME INCREASE IN POPS. AFTER THE
WAVE GOES BY...POPS DROP AGAIN. BUT BY THU...MOISTURE INCREASES
FAIRLY WELL IN SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL ENTITY
IN THE CARRIBEAN WHICH IS CURRENTLY T.D. #5.
0 likes
- Weatherboy1
- Category 5
- Posts: 1167
- Age: 48
- Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
- Location: Jupiter, FL
my guess: Charley scenario without the recurve
At this point, it seems to me like TD#5/soon-to-be Earl will follow a Charley-type path, but not recurve in the NW Caribbean like he did. That's because it doesn't look like there will be a strong front dipping south far enough to scoop him up. This is probably a GOMEX or Mexico concern longer-term. It could always plow into the Northern Caribbean islands or head through the FL straits, but given its low latitude starting point and other factors, I think a track south of Cuba near Jamaica and then into the Gulf or Yucatan is more likely.
0 likes
Yes...indeed we have tropical storm Earl at 5PM.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR.0408141859
MW
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR.0408141859
MW
0 likes
Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
- southerngale
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 27420
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
taking a very similar track, but I prefer to wait until 3 days out instead of 5. But, trough has been pretty consistant in gom, is it strong enough to pull another cane further north like Charley? Well see. I don't see anything in front Earl for it not to be a hurricane down the line into the Caribbean.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: bird, cajungal, ElectricStorm, Google Adsense [Bot], KirbyDude25 and 84 guests