Time for an April SSTA comparison--dating back to 1995.

[Kevin_Wx]

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 1.2003.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 2.2002.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 2.2001.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 4.2000.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 3.1999.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/c ... 4.1998.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/c ... 1.1997.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... nomaly.gif

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... nomaly.gif

1. Notice the similarity to 1995--in the NINO regions.
2. This year is experiencing the warmest SSTA's of those 8 years.
3. If this can hold...not good.

What do ya'll think?

[cycloneye]

Yes we have to wait for more data but if those ssta's hold then we will see more activity.But dont expect a 1995 season with 19 named systems but 2003 will be active.

[chadtm80]

Well im gearing up for an active season here Thanks for the taking the time to show us the comparisinos Kevin.

But dont expect a 1995 season with 19 named systems but 2003 will be active.

so what are the differences between the factors in 95 and the factors now in 2003?

[cycloneye]

Chad in 1995 all the factors were in favor for a very active season and now in 2003 some factors are favorable and others not so in other words it is a mix bag but the most important one enso will be favorable but the question is how much of the other factors will cancel the enso one.

[Stormsfury]

I second that Cycloneye. 2003 looking to be active, but not the 19 storms we had in 1995.

[chadtm80]

Gotcha cyc... Can someone take a second to explain to everyone what different factors there are to be considerd other than the ssta's for the tropical season..

[cycloneye]

Chad here are the factors

Factors that makes a hurricane season active or not.

1-ENSO=El nino or la nina

2-SSTA'S=Temps deep below the surface of water

3-SST'S=Temps in the surface of water

4-SPLA=(SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY)

5-TUTT=Semipermanent trough in atlantic

6- Azores High=High pressure located in the north atlantic

7- African rainfall=This factor is considered not much because of the little observations in africa.

8-QBO winds=Winds way up in the atmosphere.

[ColdFront77]

It looks like with this information we will have more named storms than 2001 and 2002, but a fewew than 1995. Sounds interesting.

[Kevin_Wx]

BTW, I wasn't suggesting that 2003 will activity levels similar to 1995. Rather, I was comparing the tongue of SSTA's in the NINO region. This Nina looks like it could be similar to 1995. But not a 1995 in terms of activity...

Now for a factor rundown this season:
1. ENSO...favorable/neutral
2. SSTA's...favorable
3. SST's...favorable
4. SLPA...slight negative/neutral
5. African rainfall...We also have doing research on this...but I won't comment on this.
6. QBO...easterly this year, which is considered to be somewhat unfavorable for intense hurricane development. There may be factors to counteract this factor, so stay tuned.

Based on the above, expect an above average (perhaps even significantly) hurricane season.

[Anonymous]

Orginally posted by Cycloneye:
2-SSTA'S=Temps deep below the surface of water

Whoa, I don't think so Cycloneye. SSTAs = Temp anomalies at the surface of the ocean.

BTW you left out a few factors too, such as:
1)equatorial trough
2)madden-julian oscillation
3)saharan air layer
4)and NAO

Originally posted by ColdFront77:
It looks like with this information we will have more named storms than in 2001 and 2002, but less than in 1995.

We could see more named storms than in 2002, but not 2001. In 2001 we saw 15 named storms (that is A LOT, especially considering nearly half occurred in the high latitudes). I don't see us getting any more than 15 this year unless we get neutral ENSO conditions.

[Kevin_Wx]

Note: SSTA's, I believe, are based off of the SST's in a certain area and their measurements in relation to normal.

[Steve H.]

SSTA simply refers to sea surface temp anomalies. The temps at depths (for our purposes) are those diffs at different depths in the pacific that can lead to the easterly moving kelvin waves. Also, shallow SSTAs in the atlantic lead to concerns of upwelling, negative effects of cooler water on cyclones. Of Note on the 2003/1995 comparison, in 1995 the SSTAs run solid clear across the Atlantic to Africa. 2003 shows cool anomalies in the central Atlantic. Lets watch to see how quickly these fill. Also, Nino region 3/4 still warm. In 1995 they disappeared quickly. Notice though the similarity of the cool anomaly running up along west coast of S. America then west along the equator. That area looks quite similar. Should be busy season. 13/9/3 for me as of this date. May up one in each cat in June if trends continue and El Nino wanes. Cheers!!

[Steve]

What's up y'all?

The one thing that is very interesting to me in the comparisons is the warm water off the NE Coast of the US. That played a major roll in last season's avenue through the North Central Gulf, but it was coupled with drought conditions in the Mid-Atlantic states. That drought is long gone, busted by the 2002 season as well as a vastly different winter circumstance & outcome from the 2001-2002 winter.

Cool site.

Steve

[vbhoutex]

STEVE!! Welcome to Storm2k!! Thanks for the compliments on the site. We feel we have a great one and it is getting better with each new member!!

Nice analysis on the differences this year from last. What do you think the changes from last years pattern will do to this season?

[Steve]

What's up vb? Yeah, it is cool. I'm glad to be here. I love the list of administrators as well. It's a who's-who of people with hurricane reputations on the web.

I don't have enough of a handle yet on this year. I did pretty good overall last year laying the challenges at the pros (Gray/Gray/JoeB), but I'm not sure about 2003. I have to do a lot more research. At first glance, I like Dr. Gray's 4/03 prediction of 12/8/3. The difference from last year, which of course was an AWESOME season for South Louisiana, would be the reversed ratio of hurricanes to named storms vs. 2002's high ratio of tropical storms to named storms (12/4/2). One of 2002's lessons was that there is sometimes a correlation in high landfalling years and years with a higher ratio of tropical storms to total named storms. Another thing about 2002 was the trend of several storms forming west of 70 degrees (though we saw a couple of storms come across the Atl.). So another big key concerning US impact will be where the storms get cranking this season. If they form further east (which probability is much more likely) in 2003, I would look for more fish spinners, less landfalls, and a higher threat area to the NE Gulf and East Coast that what we saw last year.

But I'm not putting down anything official until we get closer to the season.

Steve[/img]

[Anonymous]

Welcome to Storm2k! Louisiana never had a year similar to 2002 in a while. But the truth is that SE LA never got hit by a hurricane yet!

[vbhoutex]

Welcome to Storm2k! Louisiana never had a year similar to 2002 in a while. But the truth is that SE LA never got hit by a hurricane yet!

What was Betsy? I may incorrect if we are talking tracking right over the top of NO or something like that, but we had friends who had a 2x4 blown through their front window which was covered by 3/4" plywood during that storm!!

[Steve]

Right vb. But I think what he was saying was that we haven't seen an actual hurricane here in a long time, though areas WSW in Vermillion/Iberville/Lafayette/Acadia/Evangeline Parishes saw hurricane conditions with Lili last year. But we in the GNO had a ton of threats and saw feeder bands from several different storms & remnants of storms (Eduard & Pacific tropical moisture). And for all that action (6 or 7 total events), the highest gusts in the City were probably in the low 50's.

Steve

[Anonymous]

What was Betsy? I may incorrect if we are talking tracking right over the top of NO or something like that, but we had friends who had a 2x4 blown through their front window which was covered by 3/4" plywood during that storm!!What was Betsy? I may incorrect if we are talking tracking right over the top of NO or something like that, but we had friends who had a 2x4 blown through their front window which was covered by 3/4" plywood during that storm!!

I was talking about the 2002 season.

[photopete]

This latest blast of cold air for this time of the year will certainly cool the surface of the GOM the next couple of days. Biloxi set a all time low high today. Not to worry though, SST will be plenty warm come this June 1st.