Second WPAC Storm of the Year Forms!

[Anonymous]

Both the GFS and NOGAPS are hinting at development in the SW WPAC. If development were to occur, it would be the first tropical storm in the northern hemisphere this year.

[Aslkahuna]

it would be the second named Tropical Storm in the Northern Hemisphere this year if it were to develop. The first being T.S. Yanyan which formed near Pohnpei and recurved east of Saipan as a 50kt TS during the period of 15-21 January.

Steve

[Anonymous]

Oops....typo.

[Anonymous]

the disturbance is now an INVEST.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home

[Anonymous]

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

[ColdFront77]

Wonderful, more activity to monitor, not being reported on television. For two reason -- War coverage and these systems rarely are mentioned on TV news here in the United States.

[Anonymous]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert


WTPN21 PGTW 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 082151ZAPR2003//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.8N2 154.4E4 TO 2.9N1 161.0E8
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
081800Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 2.9N1
159.6E1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.7N9 159.5E0 IS
RELOCATED NEAR 2.9N1 159.6E1, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF POHNPEI ISLAND. A 081924Z4 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE
TO THE EAST OF A REGION OF TROUGHING. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WEAK TO MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092200Z3.
4. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//

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[Anonymous]

WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082151ZAPR2003//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 3.3N6 159.5E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 3.3N6 159.5E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 3.9N2 159.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 4.9N3 158.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 5.9N4 158.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 7.4N1 157.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 8.8N6 155.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 3.5N8 159.4E9.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
082330Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS.
ANIMATED VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE, WITH RADIAL DEEP CONVECTION NOW
TURNING TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 13 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL
SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 082151ZAPR2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 082200). NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8, 091500Z5, 092100Z2
AND 100300Z4. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//

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