Dr Grays april forecast calls for an active season 12/8/3

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 9:06 am

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... /april2003

I thought he was going to raise by 1 the numbers but I think he has done the right thing because no big changes haved been seen in the factors to merit a big jump in the numbers but he remains in the thinking that this season will be an active one.

Steve H. · #2 Postby **Steve H.** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 11:14 am

Thanks for the update Luis. When he stays with the same number its a sign it will be an active season. He's gonna wait for other data to come in before June to see if he needs to raise his numbers. Not enough data to support raising them yet. When his numbers are unchanged he's playing it conservative, and with all things (influencing factors) being equal, we'll look to the Pacific to see if numbers go up. If he thought there would be more inhibiting factors he'd have lowered his numbers in this April outlook. Bottom line IMO, is that his numbers will be the same in June or go up, they will more than likely not go down. It would take something quite unexpected to drive them down. This is his forecast refinement time. May have some exciting tracking this year. Cheers!! 8)

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 11:29 am

No steve I dont think that he will go down this season as he did last year because no (big) factors that may inhibit developments are there.

chadtm80 · #4 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 2:37 pm

Site is back up
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... /april2003

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 2:38 pm

OK after some problems in the site of Colorado University it is now working so now you can see what is the base for Dr Gray to see an active season.

I saw that he barely mentioned the QBO winds factor and that is interesting to note because that is one of the factors to look for.

chadtm80 · #6 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 2:41 pm

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 68% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 48% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 38% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 3:01 pm

#4 is what I am worried about here in Puerto Rico Chad.Let's see how the cape verde season pans out and affects the caribbean with systems comming from that part of the world.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 4:25 pm

Not surprised by his forecast. There hasn't been much change with the factors since December. Still looks like a relatively dangerous season ahead.

Kevin_Wx · #9 Postby **Kevin_Wx** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 4:36 pm

Yeah, real dangerous.

This ISN'T a copy of his December forecast. If anyone has time, I'd invite you to read the entire forecast, and read it very carefully. There is clearly some very bad signs in there. Focus on the discussion parts.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 4:43 pm

Yes agree SC and Kevin that this season will be more dangerous because of the factors that Dr Gray mentions in the report but you have to read the report and see what we are talking about.

What concerns me because to my location in the caribbean is the enfasis from him that above average major canes will affect the caribbean but let's wait and see how the cape verde season pans out in terms of systems threatening the caribbean.

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 6:22 pm

I hate probabilites.

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 6:26 pm

Jason If I can ask why you hate probabilities?

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 6:58 pm

Giving probabilities really isn't a forecast. By giving your probabilities, you're saying that there is a chance of something happening. In my opinion, some actual numbers should be forecasted instead. Thats what we will be doing this season.

Stormsfury · #14 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 7:17 pm

I have to agree with Supercane ... I'm not surprised that the forecast numbers aren't changed due to the fact that since December, not much as changed to think otherwise ...

Jason, you bring up a good point about probabilities.

Kevin_Wx · #15 Postby **Kevin_Wx** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 7:22 pm

Yeah, everybody on our team seems to hate probabilities. Our forecast will show you more details! Until May 25th, you will have to wait.

How many years has it been since Gray has been tacking the East Coast with the typical 68% of a major hurricane making landfall? I think he's been using the same probability since 2001. Has the East Coast been hit yet?

Stormsfury · #16 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 7:29 pm

Very true, Kevin ...

How about 2000 and 2001? ... how many hurricanes hit the U.S. in those years? ... None. These were very active years in regards to number of named storms in both years.

Derek Ortt · #17 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 9:37 pm

As goes the SAL, goes the CV season. SAL cannot be forecasted far in advance and is not even entirely understood

Kevin_Wx · #18 Postby **Kevin_Wx** » Fri Apr 04, 2003 10:35 pm

I don't think that the SAL would totally shut down this Cape Verde Season. If the outbreaks are numerous and large, we would see significantly reduced levels of CV activity.

But then again, I don't know how likely it is to have back-to-back CV seasons with the SAL being a huge inhibiting factor.

Not trying to hype anything, but for the sake of the East Coast, we'd better hope that there is a lot of SAL outbreaks this season. My reasoning? The Azores High is showing signs that it may be at normal strength by the peak of the hurricane season, unlike 2001-2002.

#19 Postby **wx247** » Sat Apr 05, 2003 10:51 am

Great insight everyone!

Anonymous · #20 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Apr 05, 2003 3:59 pm

Originally posted by Derek Ortt:
As goes the SAL, goes the CV season. SAL cannot be forecasted far in advance and is not even entirely understood

The SAL is not the only factor that determines how active the CV season is. You are correct about its difficulty to forecast though.

Dr Grays april forecast calls for an active season 12/8/3

Dr Grays april forecast calls for an active season 12/8/3

No Changes From Dr. Gray eh?

Who is online