Category 4 Songda Bears Down on Marianas

[Cyclone Runner]

For the second time in 2 weeks, the Northern Marianas are under the gun from a Category 4 Typhoon.

Emergency Management Office: Batten down the hatches

By John Ravelo
Reporter

Residents of Pagan, Alamagan and Agrihan took to underground shelters yesterday as Typhoon Songda's 120mph winds moved closer to the Northern Marianas. Saipan and Tinian began experiencing storm conditions late afternoon yesterday due to the typhoon's wide wind field.

Gov. Juan N. Babauta yesterday placed the three Northern Islands under typhoon condition 1 and upgraded his storm declaration for Saipan and Tinian to condition 1, which meant that typhoon and storm conditions would be felt on the islands within 12 hours.

As of 4pm yesterday, the Emergency Management Office said Songda was about 190 miles east-southeast of Alamagan, 205 miles east-southeast of Pagan, and 240 miles southeast of Agrihan. Some 33 persons reside on these islands.

The EMO said the typhoon was about 210 miles east-northeast of Saipan and 220 miles east-northeast of Tinian at this time, with Songda already packing 120mph winds with higher gusts, while moving west-northwest at a relatively slow pace of 12 miles per hour. The EMO said the typhoon would further intensify.

The EMO advised residents to closely monitor the track of the typhoon. While damaging winds were expected on Saipan and Tinian last night, the EMO said winds would turn to the west-southwest today, although the typhoon was expected to weaken by this time.

Based on yesterday afternoon's forecast, Songda would pass between Pagan and Alamagan early this morning, bringing to the islands typhoon-force winds of up to 125mph.

Intermittent gusts brought by Songda last night were almost of supertyphoon-strength. A typhoon is considered such when wind strength reaches at least 150mph.

The typhoon gained strength as it moved closer to the islands, with maximum sustained winds increasing from late Monday night's 85mph. As of 10pm Monday, the typhoon tracked west-northwest.

As of 7am yesterday, the National Weather Service said Songda was moving westerly at 16mph, threatening to move closer to Saipan and Tinian. At that time, the typhoon wielded 110mph-strong winds. The NWS located the typhoon about 295 miles east-northeast of Saipan, 305 miles east-northeast of Tinian, 305 miles east-southeast of Pagan, 290 miles east-southeast of Alamagan, and 335 miles east-southeast of Agrihan.

By 1pm yesterday, the NWS said the typhoon was moving west-northwest and would continue moving in that direction in the next 24 hours. Songda's wind strength increased to 120mph while slowing down its forward movement to 12mph.

By this time, the typhoon had moved closer to the islands, with the NWS locating Songda about 235 miles east-northeast of Saipan, 250 miles east-northeast of Tinian, 220 miles east-southeast of Alamagan, 240 miles east-southeast of Pagan, and 270 miles southeast of Agrihan.

Songda, named after a Vietnamese river, comes on the heels of Supertyphoon Chaba, which hit the CNMI directly on Aug. 23. The supertyphoon destroyed hundreds of homes and damage has been estimated at over a million.


APCEDI
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

[Cyclone Runner]

Typhoon to go north
By Katie Worth
Pacific Daily News; kworth@guampdn.com
Masako Watanabe/Pacific Daily News/mwatanabe@guampdn.com


Storage: Maria R. Ada, 78, of Toto shows how her family has kept yard items stored since then-Typhoon Chaba passed near Guam. Ada said the stored fencing normally is set out in the yard to protect plants.

Typhoon Songda does not appear to be headed for Guam or its northern neighbors. A meteorologist said storm activity in the Pacific should be a little quieter in September.

ON THE NET

National Weather Service: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/pr/guam

Joint Typhoon Warning Center: http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

It appears -- though one learns never to speak too soon about storms on Guam -- that the island and its Northern Mariana neighbors will be spared from Typhoon Songda. Meteorologists believe it will pass to the north.

National Weather Service meteorologist Mike Middlebrook said residents can heave a sigh of relief and take down their typhoon shutters for a few weeks because the weather systems likely will slow down through September.

Big storms, he explained, come in cycles, and the cycle that has created the crazy weather over the last few weeks -- including record-breaking rainfalls -- is slowing down. The next cycle will probably start up again in mid-October.

As of 8 p.m. yesterday, the National Weather Service reported that Songda was located 520 miles east-northeast of Guam, and was moving west-northwest at 17 mph.

At this rate, the typhoon is expected to touch only the most northern of the Northern Mariana Islands, most of which are uninhabited.

Nonetheless, many Guam residents yesterday said they are still prepared, especially after the run of storms and rain this summer.

Maite residents Jose Q. Ada, 81, and his wife, Maria Ada, 78, said they left most of their storm shutters closed after the last storm, in case Songda hit.

"The minute they say there's going to be a typhoon, we begin preparing: the food, the gas, the batteries, the water," Maria Ada said. "I always worry every time when we hear there's a typhoon because we never know what's going to happen."

Jose Ada said, to him, it seems as if the weather patterns are much different than they used to be.

"To tell the truth, the weather has changed a lot since before the war," he said. "Before, we always had a rainy season and a sunny season, but nowadays, it's unpredictable. We have more typhoons, we have more rain, and it's a constant rain. It's really unpredictable now. It bothers me what causes it, what's going on."

He's right for this year, anyway -- Guam's weather has been nothing if not strange.

Guam has had record-breaking weather: in June, for example, Guam received a mind-blowing 38.03 inches -- more than 500 percent higher than the average rainfall of 5.93 inches for that month, and nearly triple the previous June rainfall record of 13.33 inches, recorded in 1985.

And rainfall for this month, 37.12 inches as of Sunday night, is more than triple the average rainfall for August, typically the second wettest month of the year, next to September, according to Weather Service records. Both months approach the record rainfall ever recorded in one month -- 38.49 inches in August of 1997.

But Middlebrook said the inclement weather the island has seen this year doesn't appear to be related to global climate changes, but more likely has to do with just bad luck.

"You can't really say it's because of global warming or El NiÒo ... because the whole (Pacific) basin wasn't that wet, and if Guam was moved 100 miles in the right direction, it probably wouldn't have been bad at all. It just happened to dump on Guam almost every time," he said.

Middlebrooke said he expects September to be somewhat less drenched than in June and August because of what's called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. He said the MJO is a little-understood weather cycle that begins in the Indian Ocean and moves slowly across the Pacific, slowly weakening as it moves.

The cycle typically takes about 40 to 60 days, he said, which in this part of the Pacific means that about every other month there will be heightened storm activity.

This current oscillation seems to be dying out, and the next one is expected to affect this part of the Pacific in about mid-October.

"That's not to say that there won't be storms in September; it'll just be quieter than it has been," he said.