Dr Gray Upgrades numbers =13/7/3

[cycloneye]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... april2005/

Really no surprise the upgrade.Read the whole report and if you want to comment about it go ahead.What I dont like is what he says about the Caribbean having a high risk of having a major landfalling cane.

Below is the abstract.

ABSTRACT
Information obtained through March 2005 indicates that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one. We estimate that 2005 will have about 7 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 13 named storms (average is 9.6), 65 named storm days (average is 49), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 3 intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 7 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2005 to be about 135 percent of the long-term average. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect this year to continue the past-decade trend of above-average hurricane seasons.

This early April forecast is based on a newly devised extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 52 years of past global reanalysis data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We have increased our forecast from our early December prediction due to a continued Atlantic Ocean warming and a belief that significant El Niño conditions for this summer/fall are now less likely. If the next few months verify this supposition, it is probable that we will be further raising our 31 May and 5 August seasonal forecast numbers. Conditions in the Atlantic are very favorable for an active hurricane season.


Read the rest at link above.

[Hurricanehink]

Ooh, that's interesting. Hopefully it won't be a bad season. I'm sure you all could use a break.

[canegrl04]

Well I'm ready to rock n roll

[P.K.]

Not a surprise it has been upgraded as you say. I'll read it through in the morning.

Will be interesting to see the TSR figures on the 5th April.

[senorpepr]

Interesting... a few weeks ago I predicted 13/7/3... hmmmm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=59313



It shall be an interesting season. Let's hope it's a safe one.

[depotoo]

however you got it cycloneye! congrats and thanks for sharing!!!!

[cycloneye]

however you got it cycloneye! congrats and thanks for sharing!!!!

Thank you.The important thing regardless on how I got it is that the April update is posted and the doc increased his forecast numbers.

[Scorpion]

Yes! Bring it on! I thought he was going to upgrade the amount of majors, but I guess 3 is ok.

[sunny]

however you got it cycloneye! congrats and thanks for sharing!!!!

ditto!

[Doc Seminole]

Well..... I told the guys at work to head home and board up.... now that Terry Schiabo is gone.

God does rule in the affairs of men.... and men reap what they sow, more than they sow, long after they sow.

Doc

[Javlin]

Well let's all be safe and lets see how bad the insurance company's stick us.

[cycloneye]

The most important thing for all regardless how the season turns out is to be prepared,have your kits ready and hope for the best.

[James]

Good advice there.

[MWatkins]

I'm not sure if anyone's had much of a chance to look at the analog years...but here are the highlights of those seasons:

1952: Hurricane Baker makes landfall in SC as a long-track Cpae Verde storm right in the heart of the season. All other Cape Verde storms recurve before 75W

1959: Only one system makes it out of the MDR and that system doesn't make it to TS strength. Lots of Gulf activity at the bottom end of fronts it appears (from looking at the map).

1995: Come on now, do I really have to get into 1995?

2003: Very active MDR season but all except 2 turn out to sea...Isabel and Claudette.

Also...interesting that in all of these seasons except 1952 there was a July Hurricane or were active early (1995 was a notorious early starter with 4 named storms in July, although Erin didnt become a hurricane until August).

Looking at the analogs, I would expect activity closer to 1995 and 2003, as 1952 and 1959 were both higher lattitude seasons whereas 2005 seems like another Mean Development Region favored season with all of the warm water out there.

MW

[Steve H.]

I need a rest!!! Still waiting for shingles to be delivered Hope they get here before the season starts

[beenthru6]

I need a rest!!! Still waiting for shingles to be delivered Hope they get here before the season starts

I hope all of the unlucky Fla residents affected by last years hurricanes can get their repairs done before this season brings more destruction (or hopefully No destruction for them)

[vacanechaser]

I'm not sure if anyone's had much of a chance to look at the analog years...but here are the highlights of those seasons:

1952: Hurricane Baker makes landfall in SC as a long-track Cpae Verde storm right in the heart of the season. All other Cape Verde storms recurve before 75W

1959: Only one system makes it out of the MDR and that system doesn't make it to TS strength. Lots of Gulf activity at the bottom end of fronts it appears (from looking at the map).

1995: Come on now, do I really have to get into 1995?

2003: Very active MDR season but all except 2 turn out to sea...Isabel and Claudette.

Also...interesting that in all of these seasons except 1952 there was a July Hurricane or were active early (1995 was a notorious early starter with 4 named storms in July, although Erin didnt become a hurricane until August).

Looking at the analogs, I would expect activity closer to 1995 and 2003, as 1952 and 1959 were both higher lattitude seasons whereas 2005 seems like another Mean Development Region favored season with all of the warm water out there.

MW

Not to mention Mike, Florida escaped the wrath in most if not all of the analogs. Pretty interesting. I am sure some of you in Florida may be interested in that little tid bit. LOL..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[MWatkins]

I'm not sure if anyone's had much of a chance to look at the analog years...but here are the highlights of those seasons:

1952: Hurricane Baker makes landfall in SC as a long-track Cpae Verde storm right in the heart of the season. All other Cape Verde storms recurve before 75W

1959: Only one system makes it out of the MDR and that system doesn't make it to TS strength. Lots of Gulf activity at the bottom end of fronts it appears (from looking at the map).

1995: Come on now, do I really have to get into 1995?

2003: Very active MDR season but all except 2 turn out to sea...Isabel and Claudette.

Also...interesting that in all of these seasons except 1952 there was a July Hurricane or were active early (1995 was a notorious early starter with 4 named storms in July, although Erin didnt become a hurricane until August).

Looking at the analogs, I would expect activity closer to 1995 and 2003, as 1952 and 1959 were both higher lattitude seasons whereas 2005 seems like another Mean Development Region favored season with all of the warm water out there.

MW

Not to mention Mike, Florida escaped the wrath in most if not all of the analogs. Pretty interesting. I am sure some of you in Florida may be interested in that little tid bit. LOL..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Well...almost...Erin came through as a cat 1 in 1995...and there were some late season tropical storms that came out of the caribbean...but that would be good news if we can get a repeat this season...

I'll take a weak tropical storm down here....

MW

[Brent]

1995???



Mention Hurricane Opal to anyone around here(I'm 300 miles inland) and everyone gets a little freaked out.

[StormChasr]

Dr. Gray has a batting average of 44.2% since 1992. What, exactly do his predictions mean?