how much more time

[hurricanedude]

on the island can it take, its starting to lose its inner core...could this thing go down to cat 1 before emerging??? if so the FL panhandle and the rest of the GC would certainly be in better shape

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Starting to look like it.


I can't believe that a boarder line cat5 can do something like this over a 80 mile wide island???

[hurricanedude]

80 miles N/S....300= miles E/W

[djtil]

Based on the radar and projecting out (assuming no big jogs north) it looks like it could be 4-6 more hours.....if its toward 6 or more cat 1 is possible.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/radar/site/BYX.shtml?BYX

[deltadog03]

becuase its not really moving at a NW motion right now...(currently) wobble or whatever...even dr. lyons said, that it was almost moving W or WNW...and might even go south of Havana

[hurricanedude]

would not shock me to see it go down to strong TS....Im really starting to wonder if this thing will get its act back together...it is taking a royal beating, i dont want to downplay this just yet....but I feel a little better about the U.S now.....I say a cat 2 at landfall, as it has to basically start all over to build its inner core, just my take, take it with a grain of salt

[Opal storm]

Almost looks WNW if not due west on radar,that means more time over land.I think the real question is is how quick can Dennis regain major hurricane status once over the Gulf.We all saw what happened over the Carib today hopefully development won't be as rapid over the Gulf.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its distroying Cuba right now.

[deltadog03]

Right...great points...do yall see a westerward shift in models tonight...if this trend in movement continues??

[djtil]

Im really starting to wonder if this thing will get its act back together

even if it gets ripped to a TS i think it has plenty of time to regenerate considering the forecast conditions.....the depth of warm water is a question but i think thats really only an issue of whether it could sustain a cat 4....as to whether it would be a hindrance in a well formed TS coming up to cat2/3...I dont think so.

[djtil]

Its distroying Cuba right now

just like when a hurricane landfalls in the us, once its inland for several hours the damage is not as severe as at the coast....of course cubas infrastructure is not as sound as the US but the catastrophic potential is switching to flooding from wind over the remainder of the cuba path.

[LCfromFL]

Dr Steve showed the western (wobble or whatever - call it what you want) then showed the WV image and pointed out the upper low in the W GOM that should cause significant outflow once Dennis emerges from Cuba and mentioned that he could restregthen back to a possible Cat 4

[Janie34]

Im really starting to wonder if this thing will get its act back together

even if it gets ripped to a TS i think it has plenty of time to regenerate considering the forecast conditions.....the depth of warm water is a question but i think thats really only an issue of whether it could sustain a cat 4....as to whether it would be a hindrance in a well formed TS coming up to cat2/3...I dont think so.

Well, there are also other factors to consider, such as forward motion and speed....still see no real reason for Dennis not to be a powerhouse when it reaches the Gulf Coast. Time will tell.

[cajungal]

Let it weaken as much as possible. That is all we can hope for. Florida does not need this. And neither does anybody else.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember Isidor 2002...It got its core distroyed never redeveloped it....I would be very suprized if this thing got its act together like it did this morning.

[Sanibel]

Dennis has warm water feeding it on both sides.

[Opal storm]

would not shock me to see it go down to strong TS....Im really starting to wonder if this thing will get its act back together...it is taking a royal beating, i dont want to downplay this just yet....but I feel a little better about the U.S now.....I say a cat 2 at landfall, as it has to basically start all over to build its inner core, just my take, take it with a grain of salt

It's expected to enter the Gulf later tonight,if that happens it will probably not drop any lower than a cat 2.Then,it's back out in warm open water where it will start firing back up.Local mets have mentioned that the waters in the southern GOM are very warm(much like the carib) and there is no shear.Still looking at a mid to upper cat 3 landfall.

[Janie34]

Remember Isidor 2002...It got its core distroyed never redeveloped it....I would be very suprized if this thing got its act together like it did this morning.

Yah, I remember that. I was rather surprised at that result, actually.

[SouthernWx]

Folks, don't be lulled into thinking Dennis is falling apart.
It's still IMO a major hurricane....and will deepen again once moving into the warm potent waters SW of Key West; possibly deepen rapidly.

Using hurricane climatology as a guide, it won't surprise me if Dennis once again reaches 140-145 mph and a central pressure below 940 mb.....

I won't state categorically that Dennis will maintain cat-4 intensity to landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, but would NOT discount the possibility. I glanced at Dr Kerry Emanuel's maximum hurricane intensity potential map this afternoon, and the waters offshore from Panama City to Louisiana will suppport a cat-5....135 kt+ IF other parameters (shear, outflow, etc) are favorable.

Audrey was a 120-125 kt cat-4 when making landfall in SW Louisiana back in June 1957; there's no doubt in my mind it could happen again (two weeks later than Audrey occurred)...especially when Dennis has already proven to be the most intense July Atlantic basin hurricane of record.

PW

[djtil]

Dennis has warm water feeding it on both sides

it doesnt work that way.....while the core is not over water the energy source is cut off.