Closed tropical low near Africa

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Derek Ortt

Closed tropical low near Africa

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jun 08, 2003 2:34 pm

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas32.png

Not entirely unusual though. These do occur from time to time, but they hardly survive across the Atlantic
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Jun 08, 2003 2:49 pm

Especially this time of year ...
(I hate 6 hr intervals for Meteosat)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 08, 2003 2:50 pm

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/files/6608-Image1.gif

It will be very difficult for it to survive all the way from africa to the caribbean as hostil conditions prevail in the tropical atlantic.If it were august or september it would be a TS or a cane but I will watch it neverless to see how far it goes.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Jun 08, 2003 3:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#4 Postby OtherHD » Sun Jun 08, 2003 3:03 pm

cycloneye wrote:If it were august or september it would be a TS or a cane


NHC echoed those same sentiments in the latest discussion...I thought it was interesting.
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Anonymous

#5 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jun 08, 2003 3:10 pm

It's not rare for early June, but it isn't common either. Anyways, it doesn't stand a chance with the dry air and strong westerly shear its moving into. Once a positive MJO phase moves in the region in a week or so, the ITCZ should die down quite a bit.

On a side note, remember what happened on June 24, 2000? Tropical Depression #2 out in the east Atlantic...see...it CAN happen.

Image
Last edited by Anonymous on Sun Jun 08, 2003 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Anonymous

#6 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jun 08, 2003 3:12 pm

These images update a lot faster.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/f ... africa.gif

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white[/url]
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weatherlover427

#7 Postby weatherlover427 » Sun Jun 08, 2003 3:13 pm

Forgive my seeming stupidity, but positive MJO = little ITCZ activity and negative MJO = a lot of ITCZ activity?
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Anonymous

#8 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jun 08, 2003 3:18 pm

Joshua21Young wrote:Forgive my seeming stupidity, but positive MJO = little ITCZ activity and negative MJO = a lot of ITCZ activity?


Correct. BTW for future reference...

positive MJO = dry MJO (unfavorable)
negative MJO = wet MJO (favorable)

Since we use both terms. :)
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Anonymous

#9 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jun 08, 2003 3:19 pm

Yes, the MJO affects the ITCZ just as much as it affects tropical cyclone formation.
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weatherlover427

#10 Postby weatherlover427 » Sun Jun 08, 2003 3:22 pm

Seems a bit backwards to me but oh well. Thanks for clearing that up for me. :)
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#11 Postby chadtm80 » Sun Jun 08, 2003 3:52 pm

(I hate 6 hr intervals for Meteosat)

You and me both

Thanks for those links TWW


Great discussion guys... Thanks.. I pick up something new everyday
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#12 Postby wx247 » Sun Jun 08, 2003 8:47 pm

Interesting development. And thanks for the link TropicalWxWatcher... I hate the 6 hr. wait as well. Sometimes it drives me up the wall. :lol:
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#13 Postby Guest » Sun Jun 08, 2003 8:55 pm

Thanks for the explaination on MJO's. Now what are we in right now??

Patricia
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#14 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jun 08, 2003 8:55 pm

Anytime!
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#15 Postby southerngale » Sun Jun 08, 2003 9:41 pm

ticka1 wrote:Thanks for the explaination on MJO's. Now what are we in right now??

Patricia


In about a week or so we'll be in a positive MJO.
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#16 Postby Guest » Sun Jun 08, 2003 9:48 pm

So we will be in the big unfavorable zone on the MJO - maybe it will last all season.
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Anonymous

#17 Postby Anonymous » Sun Jun 08, 2003 10:15 pm

Sorry ticka...I missed your post the first time. We will likely be in the positive phase of the MJO through mid July. Its a 20-30 day oscillation for the Atlantic. This is why we expect our next NS to develop in late July.
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Rainband

#18 Postby Rainband » Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:38 am

ticka1 wrote:So we will be in the big unfavorable zone on the MJO - maybe it will last all season.
Not according to the predictions for 11-14 storms..They take the MJO into consideration :wink:
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#19 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 09, 2003 8:39 am

It is interesting that convection has increased near the low.But shear awaits it at 40w and the question is if it will survive.
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#20 Postby TSTRM » Mon Jun 09, 2003 11:46 am

Has anyone else noticed that quite a few of these systems have spin to them even over Africa???? Got a feeling it might be an interesting Cape Verde portion of the season.
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