When will this season get REALLY active?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

When will inhibiting factors diminish?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Next few weeks.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This must be the lull before the big storm...kinda like last year except some different conditions

[wxmann_91]

next year.

BTW j/k - Later this month is more likely, just trying to scare you.

[Brent]

Peak isn't for another 5 weeks... I suspect it'll be like last year. Starting around the 25th it'll be nonstop activity for a month(Frances, Gaston, Hermine, Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa) last year...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I am of a similar opinion. I think that when it gets active, the tropics will explode to points meeting or perhaps exceeding the burst of activity in 04.

I am wondering when this event will take place: August 10 or 15 or 25 or Sept. 1, based upon many factors inluding MJO.

[Jack8631]

When will the tropics get really active?

-- Last season, Alex formed on July 31. By July 31 this year, we already had seven named storms.

-- We've had two major hurricanes.

-- Harvey formed on 8/03, breaking a record for the earliest that the "H" named storm has ever formed

How much more active do you want it?

[deltadog03]

never!!!! lol...prolly the end of the month...or towards it...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Jack8621- I am not WANTING, I am ASKING OUT OF CURIOSITY:

All that occured PRIOR to the LULL, except harvey which took place during the lull. This is not a matter of "wanting" more activity. That is an absolutely incorrect term to use. Rather, it is a matter of wanting to know when the lull will end. Right now I don't see any Frances or Ivan or Jeanne running around in the tropics...
Although it's been a record so far,
IT IS A LULL RIGHT NOW. IT WAS ACTIVE IN JULY, BUT IT IS QUIET NOW.

[senorpepr]

When will the tropics get really active?

-- Last season, Alex formed on July 31. By July 31 this year, we already had seven named storms.

-- We've had two major hurricanes.

-- Harvey formed on 8/03, breaking a record for the earliest that the "H" named storm has ever formed

How much more active do you want it?

Actually, not only Harvey broke the old record for the earliest 8th tropical storm (it broke the old record by 12 days), but the 7th earliest tropical storm record was broken by 14 days, the 6th earliest tropical storm record was broken by 14 days, the 5th earliest tropical storm record was broken by 5 days, and the 4th earliest tropical storm record was broken by 2 days. In addition, Dennis broke the record for strongest July hurricane... only to have the record broken shortly thereafter with Emily. This only puts a dent in the broken records for 2005...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

to jack- Allright I understand where you are coming from in your statement, but We are right now is somewhat of a lull- what I WAS ORIGINALLY ASKING was regardless of how active it was last month, when will it pick up again?

[Jim Cantore]

Depending on TD 9, the syestem on the southeast, and the wave behind TD 9 maybe within the next week

[Jack8631]

When will the tropics get really active?

-- Last season, Alex formed on July 31. By July 31 this year, we already had seven named storms.

-- We've had two major hurricanes.

-- Harvey formed on 8/03, breaking a record for the earliest that the "H" named storm has ever formed

How much more active do you want it?

Actually, not only Harvey broke the old record for the earliest 8th tropical storm (it broke the old record by 12 days), but the 7th earliest tropical storm record was broken by 14 days, the 6th earliest tropical storm record was broken by 14 days, the 5th earliest tropical storm record was broken by 5 days, and the 4th earliest tropical storm record was broken by 2 days. In addition, Dennis broke the record for strongest July hurricane... only to have the record broken shortly thereafter with Emily. This only puts a dent in the broken records for 2005...

Thanks for the information. I've been reading up on multi-decadal signal (or should that be multi-decadal fluctuations?). Seems we may in for few rough years.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

(TB Hurricane peers into his explicit crystal ball)

So this temporary lull will probably last till about the 13-15th I'd say. Then we go back to a strong active pattern...time will tell oh well...
What about MJO and shear factors????

[Jack8631]

Well, I don't have a crystal ball.. so I rely on the information provided by official sources like the NHC and other professional forecasters.

[dhweather]

It's gonna be a few weeks, at least, IMO.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks for good info.

Smart-alecky post ignored.

[FloridaDiver]

When will the tropics be "really" active, from my point of view this season has been .. really.. active enough, this time out period of two, possibly three fishes is just fine with me, I say let the "inactivity" period last a whole lot longer, say late November?

[Dean4Storms]

Several long runs of the GFS have it heating up by the 20th, but that is the GFS at long range and I wouldn't bank on it. On the other hand from the way this year has gone up to this point it wouldn't be a surprise either. All anyone can tell you is that if the trend of this season remains into late Aug and into Sept. it is going to be MADD (Meteorologist Aquirring Dependant Drugs!)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you all for the replies. Good information.

It's good to know that there are people on Storm2k that have better things to do than pervert and denigrate other posters.