TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NINE (AL092005) ON 20050807 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050807 1200 050808 0000 050808 1200 050809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.2N 45.0W 20.5N 46.2W 21.0N 47.4W 21.5N 48.5W
BAMM 20.2N 45.0W 20.8N 46.6W 21.3N 48.1W 21.7N 49.5W
A98E 20.2N 45.0W 20.9N 46.5W 21.6N 47.7W 22.7N 48.7W
LBAR 20.2N 45.0W 20.8N 46.4W 21.7N 48.2W 22.5N 49.8W
SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 37KTS 39KTS
DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 37KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050809 1200 050810 1200 050811 1200 050812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.1N 49.8W 24.0N 53.5W 26.3N 57.9W 28.5N 61.2W
BAMM 22.2N 50.9W 24.1N 54.5W 26.7N 58.6W 29.0N 60.8W
A98E 24.1N 49.5W 27.3N 51.7W 30.4N 52.8W 30.8N 48.7W
LBAR 23.6N 51.4W 27.1N 54.4W 31.4N 55.0W 33.0N 51.3W
SHIP 42KTS 51KTS 55KTS 55KTS
DSHP 42KTS 51KTS 55KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.2N LONCUR = 45.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 19.3N LONM12 = 43.5W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 18.2N LONM24 = 41.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Ok here she is.

[Ivanhater]

alllllllllllllllllright

[WindRunner]

That's a sneeky little way to put it out.

[Aquawind]

Watching the visible loop it's barely Irene..and for how long is still valid..lopsided to say the least..

Paul

[wxman57]

No way it's at 20.2N. I'm looking at high-res McIdas imagery and it's well north of there at 12Z. Here/s a new shot. Looks more like 20.7 or 20.8N.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene21.gif

[Hyperstorm]

No way it's at 20.2N. I'm looking at high-res McIdas imagery and it's well north of there at 12Z. Here/s a new shot. Looks more like 20.7 or 20.8N.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene21.gif

I very much think you're right. TAFB came in at 20.7N and they now support TS strength.

Still though, the system is dealing with the same hostile conditions it was dealing with yesterday. The only difference from yesterday to today is the more concentrated convective cluster on top of the LLC. That was enough to upgrade...

[wxman57]

Right, and there's no guarantee the shear won't return in a few hours and blow the squalls well away from the center again.

[Ivanhater]

looking at visible, it seems the convection over the center is moving west while the center is moving almost north, maybe im looking at it wrong

[EDR1222]

Looking at the latest satellites, it doesn't look very good. Nevertheless, it is sure holding its own in a bad environment.

[Hyperstorm]

Latest satellite images during the past hour or so reveal that convection is disorganizing again. Who knows if they retract from upgrading at 11.

[Aquawind]

Latest satellite images during the past hour or so reveal that convection is disorganizing again. Who knows if they retract from upgrading at 11.

Well Said..

Paul

[cycloneye]

Latest satellite images during the past hour or so reveal that convection is disorganizing again. Who knows if they retract from upgrading at 11.

Agree on that.I haved noticed that NRL so far has not changed header to Irene ummmm.What I will do is to include both at title of this thread TD#9/Irene.

[wxman57]

looking at visible, it seems the convection over the center is moving west while the center is moving almost north, maybe im looking at it wrong

The center is definitely moving WNW (291 deg) at about 15 kts the past 2 hours. However, it appears the convection is being sheared away from the center again. The center is once-again fully exposed, though there is one squall building just on the eastern side of the center. I think it was a TS, briefly, but is now a TD.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene23.gif

[Aquawind]

Looks like they will be waiting until the normal 11am to make the call. There is more moisture encompassing the center but it's not to impressive. Notice the LL clouds to the S and SW kind of evaporated as the sun rose. Looks like we will be watching the convection and if it looks as it did earlier they might upgrade..but not Irene per visible right now.

Paul

[WindRunner]

I think that only the NHC can name a storm, so the NRL will lable it as NONAME until there is an official advisory on Irene. At least that's what they do with the WPAC storms.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see a more southerly track come out with the upgrade, a stronger storm is less likely to head for the weakness.

[Ivanhater]

I think that only the NHC can name a storm, so the NRL will lable it as NONAME until there is an official advisory on Irene. At least that's what they do with the WPAC storms.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see a more southerly track come out with the upgrade, a stronger storm is less likely to head for the weakness.

actually a stronger storm is more likely to head for the weakness

[WindRunner]

I think that only the NHC can name a storm, so the NRL will lable it as NONAME until there is an official advisory on Irene. At least that's what they do with the WPAC storms.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see a more southerly track come out with the upgrade, a stronger storm is less likely to head for the weakness.

actually a stronger storm is more likely to head for the weakness

Sorry, that's what I meant. A more northerly track.

[wxman57]

Here's a McIdas image hot off the press. Definitely not a TS any more. Waiting to see if the NHC pulls the trigger or places the gun back in its holster...

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene25.gif

[Ivanhater]

Here's a McIdas image hot off the press. Definitely not a TS any more. Waiting to see if the NHC pulls the trigger or places the gun back in its holster...

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene25.gif

if this does not indeed develop in the next few days, wont it go with the low level steering flow?

[Cookiely]

Here's a McIdas image hot off the press. Definitely not a TS any more. Waiting to see if the NHC pulls the trigger or places the gun back in its holster...

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene25.gif

It looks like a spirit from another world.