TD 10...Back Again

[MWatkins]

Looking at satellite imagery at 0415Z (1215 PM EDT) looks like TD 10 may be back. The overall circulation...especially deep convection near the estimated center...is making a strong comeback. I would give 1 to 2 odds (67% chance) in favor of the NHC upgrading the system back to a 30 knot TD by 2PM tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

We are starting to see some cold cloud tops there....something is doing some work at the surface.

MW

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree Mw. This thing has had a well defined LLC all day. Convection is blowing up big time over that LLC. Which is making that LLC stronger. I give it at this rate a 80 percent chance by 5pm.

[Anonymous]

Looking at satellite imagery at 0415Z (1215 PM EDT) looks like TD 10 may be back. The overall circulation...especially deep convection near the estimated center...is making a strong comeback. I would give 1 to 2 odds (67% chance) in favor of the NHC upgrading the system back to a 30 knot TD by 2PM tomorrow.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

We are starting to see some cold cloud tops there....something is doing some work at the surface.

MW

Hmm...this will be interesting. Although I fear if it makes it back, it may come closer than Hurricane Irene.

[Fego]

Do you think it will be closer than Irene because of its current position, intensity or others factor?

[ConvergenceZone]

well, wasn't the original forecast moving it northwest and then turning it more west due to the strengthening ridge north of it? I think that's what one of the last discussions had said regarding the storm. If this is the case, I would think there's a decent chance that it may avoid being a fish. It's not moving very quickly, so I think that would give the ridge penty of time to solidify itself.

[SouthFloridawx]

forcast models on old TD 10

[artist]

from 2am advisory -

A 1008 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS CENTERED
NEAR 15N48W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
14.5N49W-16.5N46W.

[hurricanefloyd5]

if this is true then will "no way jose become yes way jose"???????????????????????

[WeatherEmperor]

if this is true then will "no way jose become yes way jose"???????????????????????

lol somebody's bored.

<RICKY>

[hurricanefloyd5]

if this board is any thing like t.d.#10 then what can i say im just tring to pump live back into this board here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!hahahaahha

[storms in NC]

But how long will it last? has so dry air it is got to over come.

[Weatherboy1]

First visible imagery shows that the LLC remaining on TD 10 is "naked" to the SW of that area of convection. If he can survive for another 24 hours, I think the chances of regeneration are pretty good. And for my money, I'm guessing he will -- the other systems that were sheared this badly ended up pulling it together so there's no reason 10 couldn't.

-Mike

[Derek Ortt]

all convection just has been sheared off. Doubt we will see an upgrade today

[bvigal]

Models still updating, in pretty good agreement on track.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_10.gif

Edit: southfloridawx2005 has just posted this same thing on page 2 of this thread, so I'll remove the pic from here to save load time.

[DESTRUCTION5]

all convection just has been sheared off. Doubt we will see an upgrade today

LLC's this year have been Resistant as I have ever seen...Give me your Odds Ortt of this thing surviving..

[hurricanefloyd5]

i have to ask if that upgraded to t.d.#10 and the thunderstorms dissappeared but the llcc is still there but only now with thunderstorms firing near/over the same center then why not call it a t.d.#10 again??????????????????????? i'd like to see t.d.#10 do this -------------------------------->:blowup: <------------------------------

[WeatherEmperor]

i have to ask if that upgraded to t.d.#10 and the thunderstorms dissappeared but the llcc is still there but only now with thunderstorms firing near/over the same center then why not call it a t.d.#10 again??????????????????????? i'd like to see t.d.#10 do this -------------------------------->:blowup: <------------------------------

lol ur funny. I wouldnt celebrate just yet. If this thing does develop, then those models are not gonna be very good for you or moreso the FL east coast or anybody on the coast for that matter.

<RICKY>

[hurricanefloyd5]

need we all sea the sat.loop on former t.d.#10 please and ty...........

[Weatherboy1]

Well, one of my scientific indicators says "watch out" for TD10. My wife and I are going to Boston this weekend for a friend's wedding. The last time we did this (September 2004), hurricane Frances struck. So if 10 does regenerate, you might as well put up your shutters if you live anywhere in South FL now!

[bvigal]

Actually, the water vapor loop tells the whole story about the shear and dry air!
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html