Carribean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

dwg71 · #1 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 8:59 am

Could they look any more docile. I mean there doesn't seem to be anything.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

#2 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:04 am

you can take a small sailboat and sail from the NW Gulf through the Yucatan channel through the Caribbean Sea and out past the Leeward islands into the deep Atlantic and hit nothing until TD 10.

#3 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:45 am

boca_chris wrote:you can take a small sailboat and sail from the NW Gulf through the Yucatan channel through the Caribbean Sea and out past the Leeward islands into the deep Atlantic and hit nothing until TD 10.

Is it the calm before the storm or maybe the season has peaked already?

#4 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:46 am

Is it the calm before the storm or maybe the season has peaked already?

calm before the storm. I think TD 10 will redevelop and kick it all off.

dwg71 · #5 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:52 am

boca_chris wrote:
Is it the calm before the storm or maybe the season has peaked already?

calm before the storm. I think TD 10 will redevelop and kick it all off.

Even if it does, I dont see it in the Carribean or GOM.

jax · #6 Postby **jax** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:53 am

Stormcenter wrote:
boca_chris wrote:you can take a small sailboat and sail from the NW Gulf through the Yucatan channel through the Caribbean Sea and out past the Leeward islands into the deep Atlantic and hit nothing until TD 10.

Is it the calm before the storm or maybe the season has peaked already?

i don't know that any season on record has "peaked" in July....

jes · #7 Postby **jes** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:59 am

That is just WONDERFUL!!!! It's the Eastern Coast's turn this year. Florida and the GOM need a break. I love the serenity of not feeling complete panic and fear preparing for possible disaster.

dwg71 · #8 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:04 am

jes wrote:That is just WONDERFUL!!!! It's the Eastern Coast's turn this year. Florida and the GOM need a break. I love the serenity of not feeling complete panic and fear preparing for possible disaster.

SERENITY NOW!!!!!!!

WindRunner · #9 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:08 am

Go ahead, send 'em up here, I like it when it rains, keeps things nice and cool. I could do with something more interesting to track anyway.

ROCK · #10 Postby **ROCK** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:12 am

dwg71 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:
Is it the calm before the storm or maybe the season has peaked already?

calm before the storm. I think TD 10 will redevelop and kick it all off.

Even if it does, I dont see it in the Carribean or GOM.

true TD 10 is not a GOM event but who knows what awaits further into the season.

#11 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:13 am

WindRunner wrote:Go ahead, send 'em up here, I like it when it rains, keeps things nice and cool. I could do with something more interesting to track anyway.

I don't consider them the same thing. Anyway dry air does not always inhibit tropical development. Yeah it doesn't help but it doesn't inhibit. I recall a storm a few years back in the GOM that had TONS of dry air around it but due to the warm waters of the GOM it still maintained itself and actually strengthened before making landfall.

#12 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:23 am

dwg71 wrote:
boca_chris wrote:
Is it the calm before the storm or maybe the season has peaked already?

calm before the storm. I think TD 10 will redevelop and kick it all off.

Even if it does, I dont see it in the Carribean or GOM.

Are you sure of that? The ridge looks to be building back in strongly later this week and if it does it would tend to steer any system more Westerly. And yes I am a GOMer. And no I do not care to have any destructive tropical activity at my doorstep-I've had enough of that to last me a lifetime!! I'm just taking a glance at the long term and the possibilities. Hopefully if it redevelops inot TD10/Jose it will find a weakness in the ridge and go fish like Irene!!!

ameriwx2003 · #13 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 2:12 pm

No, the remnants of T.D. 10 doesn't look to be a Gulf threat but take a look at the 12Z NOGAPS.. It developes a Storm in the Caribbean that ends up crossing the Yucatan and into the the Gulf.. Interesting to see if this pans out:):)

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... =ngp_namer

dwg71 · #14 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 2:20 pm

Looks like a broad area of low pressure, not really anything that impressive.

#15 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 2:34 pm

Euro had picked up on something too. May not be anything "impressive" right now but that's how they all start.

dwg71 · #16 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 2:41 pm

jschlitz wrote:Euro had picked up on something too. May not be anything "impressive" right now but that's how they all start.

Its stays unimpressive the entire time until its inland over mexico. I can tell its quiet out there when we have a 10+ page thread on a downgraded TD. Some are saying the next big thing off the coast of Africa is 48 hours from even being over water. And we are debating a 1008MB low pressure area that hasn't even developed.

I wish we had something to have a wobble war over...

#17 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 3:00 pm

dwg71 wrote:
jschlitz wrote:Euro had picked up on something too. May not be anything "impressive" right now but that's how they all start.

Its stays unimpressive the entire time until its inland over mexico. I can tell its quiet out there when we have a 10+ page thread on a downgraded TD. Some are saying the next big thing off the coast of Africa is 48 hours from even being over water. And we are debating a 1008MB low pressure area that hasn't even developed.

I wish we had something to have a wobble war over...

I agree with you. It may not ever be anything.

All I'm saying is that the models are picking up on 'something' when right now we have 'nothing'. They don't tend to develop the 'nothings' (except maybe the FSUMM5 and GFDL, which are tossed) until there is 'something' to latch on to. Sometimes when the models show a little low like that for the first time, it is basically nothing thru its entire lifecycle, but it can be a precursor to something more significant down the road. Models don't tend to go haywire on a system with its first run on it (except again MM5/GFDL).

All that stated, I'm not predicting any kind of gloom and doom. Just pointing out that when you get 2 models show a little low (even thought it isn't much yet) it's something to watch in case it does develop. ONLY THEN will the models be reliable enuf to tell us if it will be significant or not...

weatherwoman · #18 Postby **weatherwoman** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 3:07 pm

some of us up here in NC would love a storm, in fact we are having one right now. But yea I like hurricanes thats why I'm here to find out what might be coming our way.

artist · #19 Postby **artist** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 4:07 pm

seems there is a very broad level of circulation with the center just south of the southwest border of the Dominican Republic, the western edge is near Jamaica and the eastern edge is near Puerto Rico.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

KatDaddy · #20 Postby **KatDaddy** » Tue Aug 16, 2005 4:20 pm

Its a ULL.......look closer and you will see the low level flow from ESE to WNW.

Back to the models. Check the excerpt from the Corpus Christi AFD:

OF INTEREST, THE NOGAPS
AND CANADIAN MODELS SPIN UP A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MOVE IT INTO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THIS VERIFY,
THEN POPS, QPF, AND WINDS WOULD HAVE TO BE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY.

Carribean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Carribean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

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