AFD NWS San Juan=Effects from ex10 in PR,VI

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 171029
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST WED AUG 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...TUTT AXIS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCATED NEAR THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION AT LEAST FOR TODAY...TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
TUTT MAY BECOME RATHER COMPLEX AND "SNAKY" BY THURSDAY...AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL HIGH ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...PESKY...WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS NORTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND
THEN AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LOCAL EFFECTS AND AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN SEVERAL MUNICIPALITIES AGAIN...WITH THE
POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

THE LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
REGION THURSDAY...WITH A "SLIGHTLY" DRIER AIR MASS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND TO ALLOW FOR DIURNALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THINGS ARE BECOMING MORE INTERESTING.
A WELL-DEFINED...1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 16 NORTH 55 WEST...THE
REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...WILL CONTINUE MOVING MAINLY
WEST TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO A MORE WEST NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DESPITE ENCOUNTERING UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER LEVEL
WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO SLACKEN AND CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE. OF CONCERN...THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE JUST NORTH
OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THIS HAS ALLOWED IT TO
GET MUCH CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THAN WHAT WAS
EARLIER EXPECTED. IT IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TRAILING THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. PER TPC/NHC EARLY MORNING HOTLINE CALL...IF THE SYSTEM
DOES RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...INITIALLY AT LEAST...
SURFACE WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE A BIG
PROBLEM. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED...THE CONVERGENT INFLOW BAND OR SO
CALLED "TAIL" OF THE THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME ALIGNED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF SYSTEM DOES PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
AND IS MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AS IT DOES SO.

THEREFORE...DUE TO THE USUAL METEOROLOGICAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH THESE
TYPE SITUATIONS AND GIVEN THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM...ALL
LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...IN CASE REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DOES OCCUR.


This will not be a Hugo,Luis,Georges or any of the big ones that haved affected us in centuries but only with the experiences we been thru only with plenty of rain with massive floodings without strong winds the fellow members who live in the northern Leeward islands,BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico have to monitor this system.

We know what happened in ST Marteen with only a tail of a tropical wave recently.Here in Puerto Rico we haved been thru many flooding events.So it has not have to be strong winds but torrential rains that do plenty of damage.

I haved been somewhat surprised that this system has not moved more north than what it is doing in recent days moving almost west because with the troughs in the central atlantic you would think it will be pulled north but the tropics are full of surprises.

[TheBurn]

Thanks for the heads-up Cycloneye...

[gatorcane]

I figured a statement like this would be issued...considering it continues to move W and is moving into a more favorable environment.

[Thunder44]

It's not moving very far north, because the system has been very weak and shallow. This is despite the low-level flow being out the SW.

[WeatherEmperor]

keep an eye out for this one Luis. Its been a very very tough fighter against the shear and if it lowers just a tad bit who knows if this thing will explode and cause problems there.

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

agreed this may pull a surprise for you guys Luis

[Hyperstorm]

The system is very shallow. Convection has pulsed on/off. Since that is the case, the system has maintained a mostly westward trajectory. This is the reason I didn't believe the initial SHIPS intensity forecast of bringing this to a hurricane and moving NW...since shear was too strong.

That's why I always emphasize that while a system may be expected to track WNW-NW due to an UL trough, it would have to be monitored until it passes the latitude of the islands. That way members are not surprised if it comes their way.

In any case, this shouldn't come more than a weak-moderate tropical storm. So, in terms of winds, I don't expect a huge threat. However, as the NWS discussion mentioned, the tail of these disturbances can sometimes cause more devastation and deaths, than the winds itself.

Hopefully, it will not expand and not have as much inflow near the circulation. If it becomes larger, it will draw a larger area of moisture to the east of the circulation.

[bvigal]

Thanks, Luis! Yes, keeping a close eye on this and the updating formation map you posted yesterday. Seems it just gets closer and closer to our area!

[Hyperstorm]

It's not moving very far north, because the system has been very weak and shallow. This is despite the low-level flow being out the SW.

The low-level flow may have been SW, but the strong high pressure to its NE has counteracted with this weak low-level flow. While the low-level flow from the trough has tried to push the system NW, the NE flow behind it has pushed westward. Thus, the stronger NE flow has won, but that is expected to change as it gets closer to the islands. We should start to see a more WNW trajectory during the next 24-48 hours. Depending on where/when we see that happening, will decide if the islands get a "direct" hit or not.

I really don't see the pattern (of troughiness to its west) allowing the "center" of this going as far west as Puerto Rico before turning WNW since the flow will become more from the SE soon.

[cycloneye]

It's not moving very far north, because the system has been very weak and shallow. This is despite the low-level flow being out the SW.

The low-level flow may have been SW, but the strong high pressure to its NE has counteracted with this weak low-level flow. While the low-level flow from the trough has tried to push the system NW, the NE flow behind it has pushed westward. Thus, the stronger NE flow has won, but that is expected to change as it gets closer to the islands. We should start to see a more WNW trajectory during the next 24-48 hours. Depending on where/when we see that happening, will decide if the islands get a "direct" hit or not.

I really don't see the pattern (of troughiness to its west) allowing the "center" of this going as far west as Puerto Rico before turning WNW since the flow will become more from the SE soon.

Agree with your statement about this system.My take is that in terms of Puerto Rico it will pass just north of the island not directly over.However the northern Leeward islands may see this system move over them or maybe a brush just a tad north but for those islands it will be a very close call.

[cycloneye]

AMZ700-172115-
SYNOPSIS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS
1030 AM AST WED AUG 17 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS NORTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN CONTINUING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. A 1010 MB TROPICAL LOW NEAR 16.5 NORTH 56
WEST...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...WILL CONTINUE
MOVING WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS FORECAST TO PASS
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAILING THIS SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTH...EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

[caribepr]

I loved that discussion - made sense to me! HOWEVER, I think it was not very nice to use the word *snaky*
and I'm shaking off the hoodoovoodoo on that one!

(Luis will get that, but for others...Culebra means *snake* in Spanish)

[schmita]

Thank Luis,

We need to be very aware of this event. It does seem to be moving closer.

irina

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 171944
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 PM AST WED AUG 17 2005

.SYNOPSIS...A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER HISPANIOLA
AND WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD THE YUCATAN BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STRETCHES FROM GEORGIA
EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE SAGS SOUTH OVER PUERTO RICO.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT 25 NORTH 40 WEST WILL
MOVE WEST AND JOIN THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AS THE
HIGH LEAVES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TROUGHING
NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 40 WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN BUT WILL ALSO TRAVEL WEST TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND SHOULD ARRIVE OVER PUERTO RICO THE FRIDAY AFTER NEXT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS TOWARD PUERTO RICO FROM A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE AT 46 NORTH 33 WEST. THE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO FLORIDA
ALONG 25 NORTH. A TROUGH HAS PASSED THE ISLAND EARLIER AND IS NOW
OVER HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND MUCH OF NEXT. A 1012 MB LOW...PREVIOUSLY
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 10 IS CURRENTLY NEAR 16 NORTH 55 WEST. IT
HAS A TAIL EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH 10 NORTH AT ABOUT 53 WEST.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY AS THE
SYSTEM ITSELF MOVES TO A POSITION ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN. MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MUCH AFTER FRIDAY
UNTIL THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY. A WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PASS ON
TUESDAY. OTHER TROPICAL SYSTEMS ENTERING THE ATLANTIC ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWEST WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
OVER TWO INCHES...LIFTED INDEX NEAR MINUS SEVEN...AN UPPER LEVEL
BOUNDARY COMING OVER PUERTO RICO AND LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER THE
AREA PERSISTED INTO TODAY WITH ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE...YESTERDAY
WINDS WERE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST...BUT TODAY WINDS WERE DECIDEDLY
SOUTHEAST. THIS LED TO A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN FORMING ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THEN MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST OVER THE REST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM RIO GRANDE TO MAYAGUEZ AND NORTH THROUGH AGUADILLA.
RADAR SHOWED THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON THE BORDER BETWEEN MOROVIS AND
COROZAL WITH 6 TO 7 INCHES AND AT LEAST 4 INCHES AT POINTS IN SAN
SEBASTIAN...LARES...UTUADO...CIALES...TOA ALTA. MAYAGUEZ AND
CAROLINA ALSO RECEIVED UPWARDS OF THREE INCHES AS DID ALL THE
MUNICIPALITIES BETWEEN COROZAL AND SAN SEBASTIAN.

GOOD MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
ABATE BEFORE SUNSET. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
OVER PUERTO RICO TOMORROW AND A LESS DRAMATIC VERSION OF YESTERDAY
MAY RECUR. FRIDAY...MOISTURE FROM THE OLD TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL
BE OVER THE ISLAND AND STILL MORE RAIN COULD BE EXPECTED...THEN
MODERATE MOISTURE WILL LAST UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LESS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
MANY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND WOULD EXPECT URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS SOMEWHERE IN PUERTO RICO. IN THE MEANTIME...FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.



The discussion from this afternoon.

It looks like the bulk of the disturbance will pass to our north but the tail will pass thru and those tails many times haved been bad as our friends from ST Marteen know.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST THU AUG 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT AFFECTED THE LOCAL AREA
ON WEDNESDAY WAS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MOISTURE
LEFT BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAIRLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT...TO AGAIN
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS INTENSE OR
AS WIDESPREAD AS THE PAST TWO AFTERNOONS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL STILL OCCUR IN SEVERAL
MUNICIPALITIES AGAIN...AND GIVEN ANTECEDENT GROUND AND RIVER
CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY SLOW CELL MOTION...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
AGAIN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A WELL-DEFINED...1010 MB SURFACE
LOW...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...WAS CENTERED NEAR
17.5 NORTH 59 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WAS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST
AT NEAR 12 MPH. PER TPC/NHC...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND ITS CENTER SHOULD PASS NEAR OR JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THEN
MOVE TO A POSITION ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO ON
FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS MENTIONED ON WEDNESDAY...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT MAIN EFFECT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING...AS THE CONVERGENT INFLOW BAND OR SO CALLED
"TAIL" OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALIGNED NEAR OR
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THEN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...MOVING IN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THUS...ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


Let's watch that tail trailing behind the disturbance as many times those do more damage as we know by past experiences in the islands

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 191013
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
610 AM AST FRI AUG 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL WAVE PASSING WNW ACROSS THE NE CARIB REGION AND ADJACENT
ATLC THIS MORNING AND INTERACTING WITH TUTT LOW TO ITS NW...AND
FLARING UP UNDER GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS WAVE...OR PORTION
OF A WAVE IF YOU WILL...IS THE FORMER REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 10...WITH GFS 315K PV ANALYSIS SUGGESTING A WEAK
REFLECTION EXTENDING SSW WELL INTO THE CARIBBEAN...AND TPC UPPER AIR
TIME SECTION ANALYSIS REFLECTING A WEAK SIGNAL AS FAR SOUTH AS
BARBADOS AND TRINIDAD YESTERDAY. TJUA VWP EVEN SHOWED A NW WIND 06
THRU 07Z THIS MORNING...CONSISTENT WITH WEAK LLVL CURLING STILL LEFT
FROM REMNANTS OF LLVL VORTEX THAT WAS ONCE THE T.D. STLT IMAGERY
OVERNIGHT AND 88D RADAR DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THAT OLD VORTEX IS CURRENTLY DUE NORTH OF SAN JUAN ALONG ABOUT 19.4
NORTH...WITH CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY QUICKLY DWINDLING. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PASS THE AREA
TODAY...JUST TO OUR NORTH...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LOCALLY TO INTERACT WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS FOR
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TODAY AND WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE DEEP CONVECTION
REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND LEEWARDS
ISLANDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK WIND FLOW ACROSS PUERTO RICO
ATTM COUPLED WITH MORNING SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AGAIN TO INITIATE
TSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN INTERIOR AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SAN JUAN
METRO AREA BY NOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THEN OCCURRING AND
SHIFTING TO THE W AND WNW...WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES OVER BROAD BASINS MAY OCCUR...AND VERY ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
THREE TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE. RECENT RAINS HAVE LEFT SOILS WET AND
RIVER LEVELS ABOVE NORMAL...AND THUS FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF P.R. HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON STREAMING CLOUD BANDS DEVELOPING OFF THE
LEEWARD (NW) COASTS.

DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE TUTT AXIS SNAKED ACROSS THE MID ATLC
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 10 HAS MOVED SLOWLY
WITH THE SUCCESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE HAVING RECENTLY MOVED VERY CLOSE
ON ITS HEELS...AND WAS ALONG 58 WEST THIS MORNING. THIS SECOND WAVE
WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE CONVERGENCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE BAND
THAT HAS TRAILED SSE OF THE FORMER T.D. AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY... ARRIVING FROM THE SE. DRIER MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND SAL ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION
FOR THE FOLLOWING FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH LATEST GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SAL AND STABLE CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL MORE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTION.


Let's hope that not much rain falls in Puerto Rico as the grounds are oversaturated with the rains that the trough brought earlier this week.