Katrina Strengthening

[gatorcane]

I am editing the title of this post for discussion specifically about Katrina as it approaches S. Florida...she looks to be rapidly intensifying....I would like to hear thoughts especially for those in the potential path...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

We have a wave north of the Greater Antilles (ex TD 10) that is getting better organized today and moving into a more favorable climate with extreme high SSTs and a ridge holding strong to the north...and its late August where climatologically it should develop

All I have to say is:

[WeatherEmperor]

Not yet. Once something becomes classified Ill start worrying. But it does need a close eye to be put on it though.

<RICKY>

[jpigott]

not yet, but it sure is something to keep an eye on in the short term

[DoctorHurricane2003]

If I were you, I wouldn't expect a repeat of the 1935 FL Keys Hurricane.

But it is really very dependent if the wave itself can gather more organization. Yes it is moving into a more favorable environment with high SSTs, but, if it can't organize itself, then there is nothing to worry about. Just watch it for now, but don't really expect anything major at the moment.

[Patrick99]

I'm looking, but not nervous at all. I hope that whatever it is gives some rain....the only way I'd be nervous is by a sudden explosion to Cat. 3 strength.

[gatorcane]

there is a noticeable spin albeit at the mid levels (apparently) and this is the FIRST time convection is building on the W side showing the lessening shear....hmmm...

[WeatherEmperor]

That is true boca-chris. If it reorganizes it will be slow nothing to rapid I dont expect. Just watch it. I know I will be cause of those near 90F waters just off our coast if you know what I mean....

<RICKY>

[HURAKAN]

Waiting for rain, but not worried!

[Scorpion]

Not nervous at all nothing gonna happen til that big CV wave organizes.

[fci]

Chris:
The remnants of TD10 do not make me the least bit nervous.
I look forward to hopefully getting some rain and stirring of the air around here.

However, the SST's of 90 and prospect of a deficit in rain DO make me nervous. I remember last year with a dry summer and then BOOM; the tropics explode on us with hurricane force winds twice and 30" of rain.
(And I will not debate if we had Hurricane Force winds because from Central Palm Beach County north... WE DID)

So, TD10, who cares..
Others to come; VERY nervous.......

[mascpa]

After going thru both Frances and Jeanne last year, no, I'm not nervous. But I'll certainly pay attention. Is there any possibility of XTD 10 stalling and therefore having the time to really organize and strengthen?

[gatorcane]

but just because ex-TD 10 only has about 800 miles instead of 3000 miles of ocean in front of it doesn't mean it will not become a major hurricane....that is the point here.

[gatorcane]

I just got word that the Navy has begun showing interest in it again....

[Blown Away]

No! But it can happen fast!

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[gatorcane]

Blown_away hence my point...thanks

[WeatherEmperor]

No! But it can happen fast!

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Lucky for us, none of us were alive when that hit south florida.

<RICKY>

[NastyCat4]

Take a Valium, and move to Colorado or New Mexico, dude.

[Rainband]

Take a Valium, and move to Colorado or New Mexico, dude.

Be nice. That was uncalled for.

[Sanibel]

This system is showing a weak tendency. So any improvement to the west is probably going to be slow to evolve...

[EDR1222]

The NWS Melbourne afternoon discussion talks about the wave that was once TD-10. The thinking is, if that is organizes then it would likely turn north well before reaching the state as the models are indicating a breakdown in the ridge. It could be a rainmaker they say, if it stays weak. See Below:

FCST DILEMMA CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER OR NOT THE REMNANT
T-WAVE WHICH WAS T.D. 10 WILL PUSH CLOSE ENOUGH TO ECFL TO HAVE ANY
SIGNIF EFFECT ON WX. SYNOPTIC PATTERN/MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A WEAKER SYSTEM (I.E. OPEN WAVE) WOULD HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF SNEAKING UNDERNEATH THE MID LEVEL WEAKENESS AROUND 75-80W
(JUST EAST OF THE STATE) RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN CHCS. REGNERATION
INTO A T.C. WOULD PORTEND A MORE NORTHWARD TURN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
BAHAMAS...PSBLY DRAGGING IN SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO IT'S WEST
AS IT DOES