TD12 forming In the Bahamas?

[canes04]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No expert here, but looks like td12 is forming just north
of Haiti. I enjoy reading all the quality post's and info you
guy's provide. I'll go back to lurking now!!

[SouthFloridawx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No expert here, but looks like td12 is forming just north
of Haiti. I enjoy reading all the quality post's and info you
guy's provide. I'll go back to lurking now!!

What do you have to back that up?

[cycloneye]

If you are going to post a forecast it has to be based on plenty of data and not a one sentence statement even if there is a disclaimer.

[Derek Ortt]

it is looking better

however, there is yet another UL that is shearing it to bits. Any development would likely be quite slow

[jax]

looks like the area is really starting to fire up.... plenty of converction in the area... It's hard to tell if there is a LLC developing under the convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Derek Ortt]

cyc,

it does look like there is a surface circulation near 21.3N and about 71W, though the system is being sheared

[WeatherEmperor]

it is looking better

however, there is yet another UL that is shearing it to bits. Any development would likely be quite slow

Derek, what do you think its chances are for possible redevelopment in the future?

<RICKY>

[Dean4Storms]

The TW former TD10 north of Haiti does look a little better this morning in that convection seems to be increasing and one can make out a slight possible mid level rotation. However, there is no evidence of a surface low at this stage much less a LLC and as Derek pointed out less than ideal UL conditions for now. This does bear watching and does need to persist with convection deepening to see any significant development.

[gkrangers]

cyc,

it does look like there is a surface circulation near 21.3N and about 71W, though the system is being sheared

the lower level clouds still look east-west to me.

[Derek Ortt]

I saw a real small circ at the lower levels at the points I gave.

That said, I am not at all high on this system yet and eprsonally, do not think anything of it

[Dean4Storms]

cyc,

it does look like there is a surface circulation near 21.3N and about 71W, though the system is being sheared

I'm not sure about that one, looks more like the wave axis to me. You can see twists running the whole line of the wave and especially along the convection. But everyone has an opinion and mine isn't always right.

[OuterBanker]

Is the remnants of the wave that was denying td 10's it's existance (following td10)?

[jkt21787]

I came to this thread expecting a statement from NHC or something. Can the title be changed, though I admit I don't know of one that would fit.

TD 10 remnant looks better for sure, perhaps the best in a while, but still don't think we're in the formative stages of a TD.

[rainstorm]

td10 died long ago. this is a different wave, and for the next 10 days at least the only chance for anything to impact the us. a front is offshre the se coast, and the wave will move slowly and should develoop starting weds. it wont be a depression today or tomorrow

[jkt21787]

td10 died long ago. this is a different wave, and for the next 10 days at least the only chance for anything to impact the us. a front is offshre the se coast, and the wave will move slowly and should develoop starting weds. it wont be a depression today or tomorrow

Well that shows how much I've been watching that area, I haven't looked in days

Whether its new or old, its still not forming a TD, IMHO.

[cycloneye]

[Sanibel]

In my opinion the convection associated with this wave was left behind by TD10 as the weak surface center tore away and dissipated.


I don't see any surface circulation on GHCC zoom. However the convection has a promising look.

[MGC]

RS is correct, I also don't see anything out of this till possibly later in the week.....MGC

[artist]

a ? mark could be added to the title.

[x-y-no]

If this thing keeps dawdling along like it is, eventually conditions are going to get better for development, and there sure is plenty of heat available to fuel it when (if) that happens.

The GFS takes four days to move this thing from where it is across southern Florida into the Gulf, and another four days after that before it eventually goes ashore in the Missisippi area. Now it doesn't develop it beyond a weak closed low, but OTOH intensity is hardly the forte of any of the globals.

The Euro is similarly slow, the main difference being that it takes it into the northern Bahamas before heading WSW across the peninsula and into the Gulf, where it also takes it very slowly NNW over several days. It intensifies it a fair bit once into the Gulf.

The Canadian is even more bullish on the system once it gets into the Gulf ...

The point being that it's worth paying attention when the globals start agreeing like this.

Jan