TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

Ok folks let's do the same as the other threads like this now commenting about Katrina.

[CronkPSU]

have we seen any of the 12z models yets?

[floridahurricaneguy]

(thought i would post this here since other thread is locked:)

Yay! We now have katrinia. Well thats if you can say yay to that. Deffinitely looking like Central Florida will get more of a smack now. Expecting even Tampa now to get more then expected. Still nothing drmatic but light TS winds and heavy rain. Am I totally nuts? If the track gets shifted north later. I am bettin watches and warnings will be shifted north and new ones for west coast for areas like tampa.

Matt

[HURAKAN]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 241214
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA (AL122005) ON 20050824 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050824 1200 050825 0000 050825 1200 050826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.4N 76.6W 25.2N 77.9W 25.7N 78.9W 25.8N 79.9W
BAMM 24.4N 76.6W 25.4N 77.6W 25.9N 78.4W 25.8N 79.1W
A98E 24.4N 76.6W 25.4N 77.5W 25.9N 78.7W 25.8N 79.3W
LBAR 24.4N 76.6W 25.6N 77.9W 26.7N 78.5W 27.2N 78.7W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 49KTS 58KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 49KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050826 1200 050827 1200 050828 1200 050829 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.6N 80.9W 25.8N 82.8W 26.6N 84.2W 28.7N 84.6W
BAMM 25.8N 79.9W 26.4N 81.5W 28.1N 82.6W 31.1N 81.8W
A98E 25.6N 80.0W 26.2N 81.6W 27.6N 82.9W 30.7N 81.8W
LBAR 27.6N 78.5W 29.0N 78.3W 31.6N 78.4W 34.3N 76.4W
SHIP 66KTS 76KTS 82KTS 86KTS
DSHP 50KTS 38KTS 44KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.4N LONCUR = 76.6W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 75.7W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 22.5N LONM24 = 74.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 55NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

TPNT KGWC 241216
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
B. 24/1131Z (73)
C. 24.3N/9
D. 75.7W/9
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/STT:D1.0/15HRS -24/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL.
FINAL T BASED ON DT, PT SUPPORTS.

AODT: T3.8 (CRVD BND)

ARCHULETTA


T number 2.5.

[CronkPSU]

wow, that is crazy, coupls of those models have it affecting central florida twice

[shaggy]

main question now is that this prolonged northwest movement move it closer to what the GFS and CMC are sayibng for a central to north florida hit then a skrter up the EC just inland.I am not so sure this is set in stone just yet will be interesting to see what the gulfstream jet finds today and what that data does to the model runs!

[nequad]

I would not be so quick to disregard the potential N or NNE movemant toward the end of the forecast period.

The high pressure responsible for the WNW movement across southern Florida appears as tho it will be transient. That should allow Katrina to move along the backside of the high as it retreats into the North Atlantic.

[Rainband]

I am thinking an Erin Scenario is setting up. Maybe a bit south of where Erin made landfall.

[Thunder44]

The LBAR turns it away from Florida and takes toward the North Carolina coast

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is gonna be wild- if it goes off the west coast
I'll get some great surf at Clearwater or St. Pete
beach this weekend.

[HURAKAN]

The LBAR turns it away from Florida and takes toward the North Carolina coast

LBAR is the rebellious one, wants to stand out and not join the consensus.

[rainydaze]

The NHC mentions one model that stalls it over Florida. How reliable is that model? Couldn't that be disasterous if it were to stall over land? Not necessarily for wind reasons, but for rain......we could see some major flooding. Does anybody have more insight on how possible this scenario is?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Time for the Pros to Chime in..Where art thou Forecasts?

[cjrciadt]

I am thinking an Erin Scenario is setting up. Maybe a bit south of where Erin made landfall.

Looks exactly that way. Yeah for me.

[MortisFL]

The NHC mentions one model that stalls it over Florida. How reliable is that model? Couldn't that be disasterous if it were to stall over land? Not necessarily for wind reasons, but for rain......we could see some major flooding. Does anybody have more insight on how possible this scenario is?

That model is the GFS. The 06z run now has it inland into east FL and crossing to the west coast before moving northward.

[Tip]

Am I reading the 06Z GFDL right? 143mph at 2nd landfall?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFDL_6z/ghmloop.html

[gatorcane]

The NHC is going to have to change their intensity forecast this morning....it's strengthening very rapidly....

[x-y-no]

Time for the Pros to Chime in..Where art thou Forecasts?

Watch the analysis forum.

Derek posted a new forecast very recently.