ZCZC 716
WTPQ20 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0514 NABI (0514) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 15.0N 152.3E POOR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 80NM SOUTHWEST 40NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 16.2N 149.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 311200UTC 17.6N 145.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
72HF 011200UTC 19.1N 142.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT =
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290151Z AUG 05//
REF/B/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HABORE HI/290752Z AUG 05//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
/REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 153.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 153.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.2N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.7N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.4N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.1N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.2N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 153.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
290151Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
290200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
TY Nabi (14W) - WPAC
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
TY Nabi (14W) - WPAC
Last edited by senorpepr on Tue Aug 30, 2005 8:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
P.K. wrote:Yes this one started advisories a while ago. I was waiting for Katrina to pass through so it didn't end up on about page 15.
Right, I meant to add a topic about it a while ago, but with Katrina, I didn't get around to it. I've added the data to the worldwide tropical page... although the satellite floaters aren't active yet. (They should kick on within a few hours)
I have a link on the worldwide tropical page (http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/) that links up to this thread here on Storm2k. Same goes for Typhoon Talim. The Atlantic storms, however, link up to the Talkin' Tropics Forum in general.
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Ouch! Looks like they're lining up on Taiwan:
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V4e/typhoon/news/AllTyph_Eng.jpg
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V4e/typhoon/news/AllTyph_Eng.jpg
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apocalypt-flyer
- Category 1
- Posts: 468
- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 11:51 am
Even tho all attention in the Western Pacific area might be with Talim right now, about to hit, or at least be very very close to Taiwan, Nami is expected to develop very 'nicely'.
Circulation is already very evident, as you can see in the picture below.
Just like with Talim, shear is low and all other influences are anything but harming its development, and a Cat. 4 Typhoon is on cards in five days.
JTWC predicts that Nami will track more into the NW than Talim, however further predictions are not sure at all so far. Japan seems to be a good bet for landfall.
Circulation is already very evident, as you can see in the picture below.
Just like with Talim, shear is low and all other influences are anything but harming its development, and a Cat. 4 Typhoon is on cards in five days.
JTWC predicts that Nami will track more into the NW than Talim, however further predictions are not sure at all so far. Japan seems to be a good bet for landfall.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Now a severe tropical storm with 60kt winds, and a minium pressure of 975hPa.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 14.8N 147.8E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 311200UTC 15.8N 144.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
48HF 011200UTC 17.1N 141.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 021200UTC 19.3N 138.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 14.8N 147.8E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 311200UTC 15.8N 144.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
48HF 011200UTC 17.1N 141.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 021200UTC 19.3N 138.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
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no advance
- Category 1
- Posts: 413
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:50 pm
- Location: merritt is.
The pro surfers are hoping to get some surf from this develping cyclone. http://www.aspworldtour.com/
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
862
WTPQ20 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 15.6N 146.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 17.2N 142.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
48HF 020000UTC 18.7N 139.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
72HF 030000UTC 21.1N 136.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT =
WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W WARNING NR 6//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 301200Z AUG TO 041200Z SEP 2005.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. TY 14W IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. THE RECENT TURN JUST SOUTH OF WEST
IS THE RESULT OF A FINGER OF THE RIDGE BUILDING IN BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOWS OF TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) AND TY 14W. THIS INDUCED RIDGING IS CAUSING
THE EQUATORWARD COMPONENT IN FLOW AND IS FORECAST TO ADD A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY
INFLUENCE TO THE TRACK OF TY 14W FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PAST TAU
24 THE STEERING RIDGE SHOULD REORIENT ALLOWING A MORE POLEWARD TRACK.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP GFS, COAMPS, EGRR, GFDN,
JGSM, JTYM, NOGAPS, TCLAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO EGRR AS IT HAS BEEN
VERIFYING THE BEST OVER THE LAST FIVE OR SIX FORECAST CYCLES.
C. TY 14w IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT OR ABOVE A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE AS IT CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NO IMPINGEMENT ON THESE FACTORS IS FORECAST.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 300753Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED
SYSTEM.
E. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXITING EASTERN ASIA IS FORECAST TO PASS
NORTH OF THE STEERING RIDGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND INITIATE A POLEWARD TURN
BY TAU 96. AT THIS TIME, TY 14W WILL SLOW DOWN AND APPROACH PEAK
INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
NNNN
SUBJ: TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 007
WTPN32 PHNC 302100
1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 147.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 147.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 15.5N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.1N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.9N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.8N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.0N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.5N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 25.7N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
---
REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
WTPQ20 RJTD 310000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310000UTC 15.6N 146.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 17.2N 142.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
48HF 020000UTC 18.7N 139.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
72HF 030000UTC 21.1N 136.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT =
WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W WARNING NR 6//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 301200Z AUG TO 041200Z SEP 2005.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NABI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. TY 14W IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. THE RECENT TURN JUST SOUTH OF WEST
IS THE RESULT OF A FINGER OF THE RIDGE BUILDING IN BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOWS OF TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) AND TY 14W. THIS INDUCED RIDGING IS CAUSING
THE EQUATORWARD COMPONENT IN FLOW AND IS FORECAST TO ADD A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY
INFLUENCE TO THE TRACK OF TY 14W FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PAST TAU
24 THE STEERING RIDGE SHOULD REORIENT ALLOWING A MORE POLEWARD TRACK.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NCEP GFS, COAMPS, EGRR, GFDN,
JGSM, JTYM, NOGAPS, TCLAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO EGRR AS IT HAS BEEN
VERIFYING THE BEST OVER THE LAST FIVE OR SIX FORECAST CYCLES.
C. TY 14w IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT OR ABOVE A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE AS IT CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NO IMPINGEMENT ON THESE FACTORS IS FORECAST.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 300753Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED
SYSTEM.
E. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXITING EASTERN ASIA IS FORECAST TO PASS
NORTH OF THE STEERING RIDGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND INITIATE A POLEWARD TURN
BY TAU 96. AT THIS TIME, TY 14W WILL SLOW DOWN AND APPROACH PEAK
INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
3. FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
NNNN
SUBJ: TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 007
WTPN32 PHNC 302100
1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 147.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 147.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 15.5N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.1N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.9N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.8N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.0N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.5N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 25.7N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
---
REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 13W (TALIM) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Looking at the steering layers are we possibly looking at a South Korea landfall here?
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310900UTC 16.4N 144.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 010900UTC 18.0N 140.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
45HF 020600UTC 19.7N 137.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
69HF 030600UTC 21.7N 135.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310900UTC 16.4N 144.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 010900UTC 18.0N 140.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
45HF 020600UTC 19.7N 137.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
69HF 030600UTC 21.7N 135.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Pressure has dropped 10hPa and the winds are up 5kts. Track Image
WTPQ20 RJTD 312100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 312100UTC 17.0N 142.1E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 012100UTC 18.6N 138.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
45HF 021800UTC 20.3N 135.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
69HF 031800UTC 23.4N 132.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 312100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 312100UTC 17.0N 142.1E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 012100UTC 18.6N 138.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
45HF 021800UTC 20.3N 135.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
69HF 031800UTC 23.4N 132.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT =
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Peaking at 105kts 
Track Image
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 18.8N 138.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 140NM
30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 325NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 20.8N 134.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 031800UTC 23.3N 132.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 041800UTC 26.5N 130.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
Track Image
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 18.8N 138.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 140NM
30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 325NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 20.8N 134.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 031800UTC 23.3N 132.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 041800UTC 26.5N 130.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Pressure down a further 5hPa.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 20.1N 136.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 325NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 22.6N 133.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 041200UTC 26.0N 130.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
72HF 051200UTC 28.7N 129.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 20.1N 136.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 325NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 22.6N 133.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
48HF 041200UTC 26.0N 130.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
72HF 051200UTC 28.7N 129.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
CLASS 5 TYPE SUPER TYPHOON NABI HEADS FOR OKINAWA
Sep 1, 2005 — TOKYO (Reuters) - A powerful typhoon churning toward Japan's Okinawa islands strengthened by Friday to a Class Five storm — technically the same strength as Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans — and experts said it could also threaten Japan's southernmost main island.
Typhoon Nabi — Korean for "butterfly" — increased in power to super-typhoon status, the Tropical Storm Risk group at University College London said on its Web site, http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com
An official at Japan's Meteorological Agency warned that the storm could reach Okinawa by Monday and could curve up to hit Japan's southernmost main island of Kyushu.
He said Nabi was expected to increase its windspeed enough to be dubbed "violent," the strongest designation Japan uses for typhoons, by Saturday morning.
"It is an extremely dangerous storm, and there is the potential for quite a bit of damage," he said.
But cooler ocean temperatures near Japan mean Nabi is unlikely to have the same destructive power as Katrina, while strong prevailing winds are likely to help dissipate its force relatively rapidly once it approaches.
"The storm will be strongest when it is out over the open ocean, and by the time it nears any part of Japan it should have weakened a bit," he added.
As of 2100 GMT on Thursday, Nabi, with winds near its center of around 180 km (112 miles) an hour, was about 250 km (155 miles) southeast of Okinotorishima, a rocky islet some 1,700 km (1,060 miles) south of Tokyo.
Katrina, by comparison, struck the U.S. Gulf Coast with winds of 225 km (140 miles) per hour.
Nabi was moving north-northwest at around 20 km (12 miles) an hour, a speed and course that, if unchanged, would put it on track to hit Okinawa by Monday or Tuesday.
Okinawa, a string of islands with a population of 1.36 million, is regularly hit by typhoons, with some seven passing over it in an average year compared with three that make landfall on Japan's main islands annually.
Japan's main islands were hit by a record 10 typhoons in 2004 that left around 170 people dead or missing and caused billions of dollars worth of damage.
Sep 1, 2005 — TOKYO (Reuters) - A powerful typhoon churning toward Japan's Okinawa islands strengthened by Friday to a Class Five storm — technically the same strength as Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans — and experts said it could also threaten Japan's southernmost main island.
Typhoon Nabi — Korean for "butterfly" — increased in power to super-typhoon status, the Tropical Storm Risk group at University College London said on its Web site, http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com
An official at Japan's Meteorological Agency warned that the storm could reach Okinawa by Monday and could curve up to hit Japan's southernmost main island of Kyushu.
He said Nabi was expected to increase its windspeed enough to be dubbed "violent," the strongest designation Japan uses for typhoons, by Saturday morning.
"It is an extremely dangerous storm, and there is the potential for quite a bit of damage," he said.
But cooler ocean temperatures near Japan mean Nabi is unlikely to have the same destructive power as Katrina, while strong prevailing winds are likely to help dissipate its force relatively rapidly once it approaches.
"The storm will be strongest when it is out over the open ocean, and by the time it nears any part of Japan it should have weakened a bit," he added.
As of 2100 GMT on Thursday, Nabi, with winds near its center of around 180 km (112 miles) an hour, was about 250 km (155 miles) southeast of Okinotorishima, a rocky islet some 1,700 km (1,060 miles) south of Tokyo.
Katrina, by comparison, struck the U.S. Gulf Coast with winds of 225 km (140 miles) per hour.
Nabi was moving north-northwest at around 20 km (12 miles) an hour, a speed and course that, if unchanged, would put it on track to hit Okinawa by Monday or Tuesday.
Okinawa, a string of islands with a population of 1.36 million, is regularly hit by typhoons, with some seven passing over it in an average year compared with three that make landfall on Japan's main islands annually.
Japan's main islands were hit by a record 10 typhoons in 2004 that left around 170 people dead or missing and caused billions of dollars worth of damage.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
100
WTPQ20 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 20.8N 135.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 23.7N 132.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
48HF 041800UTC 26.7N 130.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
72HF 051800UTC 29.4N 129.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT =
SUBJ: TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 018
WTPN31 PGTW 021500
1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 20.1N 136.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 136.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.3N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.6N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.0N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.4N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 28.1N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 30.4N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 34.2N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 135.6E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 51 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
WTPQ20 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 20.8N 135.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 23.7N 132.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
48HF 041800UTC 26.7N 130.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
72HF 051800UTC 29.4N 129.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT =
SUBJ: TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 018
WTPN31 PGTW 021500
1. TYPHOON 14W (NABI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 20.1N 136.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 136.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.3N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.6N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.0N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.4N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 28.1N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 30.4N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 34.2N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 135.6E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 51 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
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truballer#1
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senorpepr
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truballer#1 wrote:what was the strongest typhoon in the wpac? also the storm looks like katrina with the big eye.
STY Tip was the most intense (870mb / 165kt). STYs Yuri, Gay, and Angela had stronger Dvorak estimates. (Tip was during the recon era. The others were after) Some believe during a re-analysis that these three super typhoons will be upgraded from 160kt to 170kt.
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P.K.
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senorpepr wrote:He said Nabi was expected to increase its windspeed enough to be dubbed "violent," the strongest designation Japan uses for typhoons, by Saturday morning.
Would that be if it reaches 100kts then? (I have looked on the JMA website for this I can't find anything)
Edit - Are those one minute averages there for those storms you have just quoted?
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senorpepr
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P.K. wrote:senorpepr wrote:He said Nabi was expected to increase its windspeed enough to be dubbed "violent," the strongest designation Japan uses for typhoons, by Saturday morning.
Would that be if it reaches 100kts then? (I have looked on the JMA website for this I can't find anything)
Edit - Are those one minute averages there for those storms you have just quoted?
Those were using one-minute averages, yes.
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P.K.
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The forecasted track looks slightly further east than it did before.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 22.3N 134.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 25.1N 131.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 050600UTC 27.8N 130.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 060600UTC 31.3N 130.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 22.3N 134.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 25.1N 131.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 050600UTC 27.8N 130.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 060600UTC 31.3N 130.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
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P.K.
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We are looking at a Japan landfall then it looks like
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 26.3N 131.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST
30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 375NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 29.4N 130.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
45HF 060600UTC 32.8N 131.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 070600UTC 39.2N 136.3E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0514 NABI (0514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 26.3N 131.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 160NM SOUTHEAST 140NM NORTHWEST
30KT 450NM SOUTHEAST 375NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 29.4N 130.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
45HF 060600UTC 32.8N 131.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 070600UTC 39.2N 136.3E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
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