Looks like a small circulation

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Typhoon_Willie
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Looks like a small circulation

#1 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:50 pm

center is near the Belize coastline moving NW. It shows up good on the Goes floater. Things may get interesting if it makes it into the Gulf. :D
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#2 Postby wx247 » Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:52 pm

I am not going to take my eyes off it. I think I see it on floater, too. We will have to wait and see what happens in the Gulf?
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jabber
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I see it

#3 Postby jabber » Mon Jun 16, 2003 1:13 pm

But it looks to be moving a bit west of north.... right into land.
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ColdFront77

#4 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Jun 16, 2003 1:36 pm

As it continues to move it will be over warm water again and with low shear apparently expected things may start to develop. Then we still have the stalled out front that should change the systems direction.
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#5 Postby GalvestonDuck » Mon Jun 16, 2003 1:48 pm

I see the Belize circulation you guys are talking about.

But I think my amateur eyes are also seeing something at 23N 95W. Pretty sure it's just a blob, but I thought I'd ask cuz you guys are so cool about allowing questions so we can learn here.

Thanks!
~Duck
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Anonymous

#6 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jun 16, 2003 3:11 pm

I see the circulation too. However, keep in mind it is very small, weak, and devoid of any significant convection. A vortex of such nature has little chance of surviving a track through the Yucatan. Even if it did, the shear pattern in the Gulf is not all that favorable for tropical development anymore, as a large upper level trough has developed near Texas. With that being said, and the continued disorganized nature of the system, I am ruling out TC formation on this one. Just too many flies in the ointment.

GalvDuck, the convection you are seeing is associated with a weak surface trough. This will probably continue to generate scattered convection in the near future, but it's located in the middle of a strong southwesterly shear zone. Nothing to be concerned of, development wise.
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Typhoon_Willie
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#7 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Tue Jun 17, 2003 5:43 pm

Well this system could become a bit more interesting as time goes by! Here is a link to some model maps regarding this system!


http://www.net-waves.net/weather/td92.php

This is a cool link indeed!
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