I dunno.......

[Scott_inVA]

Tropicals again trying to get Invest over BOC then recurve to Florida. Haven't run numericals (prehaps later tonight) but here's what printed out:

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Scott

[Colin]

Hmmmm... interesting. 2 different tracks going on there... Blue/Pink lines both on virtually the same track, but the green/turquoise line is sending it right north,, wonder what track it will take,,, if any of those! :o

Hopefully it doesn't take the route to Florida because some parts of Florida don't need the rain! :o

[Derek Ortt]

Problem with the output is that the system is assumed to be a depression when in reality it is a wide open wave. Therefore, the output will be flawed

[MWatkins]

I'm not so sure there isn't at least a weak circulation reflection at the surface...I wouldn't think it's a completely open wave at this point...just looks like a loose low-level circulation already embedded in a low-pressure enviornment.

Be interesting to see what happens when this thing creeps out over the water tomorrow. There should be about 48 hours or so before things get really hostile...

MW

[Anonymous]

Land should inhibit development since the only area with favorable for upper level winds is near the Mexican coast. If something were to form, it would move north straight into the shear. IF the low can persist in the BOC for a few days and conditions remain favorable, it may have a slight chance.

[Scott_inVA]

Problem with the output is that the system is assumed to be a depression when in reality it is a wide open wave. Therefore, the output will be flawed

Derek,

Output from 18 00Z at 0 HR does not imply a depression or closed low at SFC.

[Anonymous]

The models are probably overdeveloping the low anyway. Looks like a slow WNW track with most of the moisture being drawn northward by the s/w.

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS assmues a depression everytime it is run. It can only be run with the system initialized as a tropical cyclone. Just how the mdoel was set up

The other guidance, with the point specific data points, are either tracking a center, or prehaps a vort max area (dont have a closed low now, but it may be tracking the vort max, only talking about the NHC track guidance of course) The others, the globals, can be trusted though

[MWatkins]

Is purely a statistical model which compares the current set of initial conditions and projects statistical...not dynamic...results. So...it really doesn't discern tropical, non-tropical, wave, etc. It just runs with the numbers it is initialized with....in tonight's case it's 15 knts and a pressure of 1008MB.

My biggest problem with the model is that it only contains systems that reached TS status in the database. Hence...it tends to over-intensify TD's and weak systems early on since there are no examples of systems that never became tropical storms. It's better...in a relative way...with TS strength systems and above.

MW