Need some West Winds...

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jabber
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Need some West Winds...

#1 Postby jabber » Thu Jun 19, 2003 8:05 am

Check out:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/03_ ... _full.html

I will be watching for some west winds today. It also appears that if the disturbance can stay south of 25 shear will not be a factor

https://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/wxgr ... r+alltimes
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#2 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Jun 19, 2003 8:26 am

Hmmm. Definitely intersting points jabber. You may have something there, but we still need some continuing convection for a game.
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I agree

#3 Postby jabber » Thu Jun 19, 2003 8:44 am

We need some sustained convection going. Perhaps the one thing I have learned via observation of tropical systems is the power of persistence. This disturbance has been fighting for quite a while against pretty severe atmospheric conditions and has hung on. When I see a disturbance die come back , die, come back that means it got energy wrapped up. Like last year with Isidore, The convection died and everyone wrote him off... but he came back. It seems some of these wave contain a lot more energy then appear through normal observations and can just hang on.
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#4 Postby Colin » Thu Jun 19, 2003 9:16 am

Very nice points, both of you... the thing about Tropical Systems is that everything has to cme together just right, and some seasons we get a lot of them... which to me seems kind of rare, since things don't come "exactly" together that often.

We'll have to watch this system very carefully.
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