Forecasters Say Major Hurricane Likely In October

[canegrl04]

http://www.orlandosentinel.com

[terstorm1012]

Hazel in 1954----October 'cane.

I've got this feeling it'll be repeated. ugh

[jax]

21 % chance of a Major hurricane
hitting the US this year between now and the end of the season...
WOW... that sucks...[/b]

[NastyCat4]

Dr. Gray didn't say that. He has the chances as far less.

[Brent]

21% chance of one is not "likely". I consider likely to be 60% or higher.

[inotherwords]

21 % chance of a Major hurricane
hitting the US this year between now and the end of the season...
WOW... that sucks...[/b]

I don't know about from now until the end of the season but for October, he said there's a 15% chance that a major hurricane (3+) would make US landfall that month. There's a 21% chance that any hurricane would make US landfall in October, not just majors.

Here is a link to the report. He will be updating it the first week in October.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 5/sep2005/

Excerpt:

Table 11: Estimated probability (expressed in percent) of one or more U.S. landfalling tropical storms (TS), category 1-2 hurricanes (HUR) and category 3-4-5 hurricanes (IH) making landfall along the entire U.S. coast for October 2005 based on an October NTC forecast of 30. The long-term mean October probability of one or more landfalling systems during the last 52 years is given in parentheses.

October 2005 Probability
Named Storm (29%) 49%
Hurricane (15%) 21%
Intense Hurricane (6%) 15%

[donsutherland1]

In the other thread on this topic, Patrick99 wrote:

There has to be more than one major hit for SE FL. At any rate, when October storms come up and hit the Keys, or SW FL, we get our fair share of the storm.

One major hurricane made U.S. landfall in SE Florida (King in 1950) in October. 2 that made landfall in SW Florida brought hurricane conditions to SE Florida:

∙ Hurricane #5 (1873): Cat. 2 conditions to SE FL
∙ Hurricane #8 (1906): Cat. 3 conditions to SE FL

[jax]

21 % chance of a Major hurricane
hitting the US this year between now and the end of the season...
WOW... that sucks...[/b]

I don't know about from now until the end of the season but for October, he said there's a 15% chance that a major hurricane (3+) would make US landfall that month. There's a 21% chance that any hurricane would make US landfall in October, not just majors.

Here is a link to the report. He will be updating it the first week in October.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 5/sep2005/

Excerpt:

Table 11: Estimated probability (expressed in percent) of one or more U.S. landfalling tropical storms (TS), category 1-2 hurricanes (HUR) and category 3-4-5 hurricanes (IH) making landfall along the entire U.S. coast for October 2005 based on an October NTC forecast of 30. The long-term mean October probability of one or more landfalling systems during the last 52 years is given in parentheses.

October 2005 Probability
Named Storm (29%) 49%
Hurricane (15%) 21%
Intense Hurricane (6%) 15%

they are saying 21% chance of a major... the way i'm reading it...
correct me if i'm wrong...

a forecast group is predicting that October will see two hurricanes, one of them reaching Category 3, 4 or 5. The chance of that storm making landfall in the United States is estimated at 21%, said Philip J. Klotzbach, a member of the tropical storm forecasting team led by William M. Gray of Colorado State University.

[HurricaneGirl]

Jumpin' Jehosephat!

[tornadochaser86]

i really wont be surprised if gulf coast gets hit again

[Brent]

i really wont be surprised if gulf coast gets hit again

Hush your mouth.

[Charles-KD5ZSM]

i wouldn't doubt if one does form, but hopefully it won't affect anybody. i have seen to many deaths at home to wish that on anybody.

[SkeetoBite]

Hmmm, 21% always seems slim, unless it's a Meteorologist saying "21% chance" of anything and you planned on riding your motorcycle that day.