Vince,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Vince,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Oct 09, 2005 7:55 am

981
WHXX01 KWBC 091252
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM VINCE (AL232005) ON 20051009 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051009 1200 051010 0000 051010 1200 051011 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.8N 19.3W 34.7N 17.6W 36.0N 14.5W 37.9N 10.2W
BAMM 33.8N 19.3W 34.8N 17.7W 36.2N 14.8W 38.4N 11.1W
A98E 33.8N 19.3W 34.0N 18.4W 34.4N 16.2W 35.8N 12.8W
LBAR 33.8N 19.3W 34.9N 17.5W 36.5N 14.9W 38.0N 11.5W
SHIP 45KTS 45KTS 46KTS 47KTS
DSHP 45KTS 45KTS 46KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051011 1200 051012 1200 051013 1200 051014 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 40.0N 5.7W 42.4N 2.9E 44.6N 8.1E 46.0N 12.3E
BAMM 41.0N 7.3W 46.5N .2W 51.9N 2.7E 52.3N 3.7E
A98E 36.7N 9.0W 33.4N 2.8W 34.4N 2.0E 42.2N 10.4E
LBAR 38.8N 7.5W 38.1N 1.1W 38.2N 3.4E 41.3N 3.2E
SHIP 48KTS 50KTS 52KTS 48KTS
DSHP 35KTS 30KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.8N LONCUR = 19.3W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 33.2N LONM12 = 20.0W DIRM12 = 54DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 33.0N LONM24 = 20.3W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM



Wahooooo!!!
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#2 Postby P.K. » Sun Oct 09, 2005 7:58 am

Another name off the list then.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:01 am

Finnally Matt your wish came. :)
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#4 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:03 am

We are now offically the second most active season in History.
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#5 Postby Duffy » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:11 am

now we await Wilma
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#6 Postby krysof » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:13 am

finally we have something, now I believe we can reach Alpha, Only two more to go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D
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#7 Postby Hurricanehink » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:14 am

Cool! Another record for this season :eek:
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#8 Postby Duffy » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:16 am

yep this is october 9th....Season ends November 30th...i am not a Mathemetician or anything, but i would tend to think the odds are pretty good of making it to Alpha now...if Vince hadn't formed, i may have said not...but now the odds tend to favor it i would think, but we'll see
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#9 Postby senorpepr » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:18 am

This breaks the record of earliest 20th tropical storm by 17 days...
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#10 Postby krysof » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:19 am

also, is it considered a fish if it may make landfall in europe?
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#11 Postby TheEuropean » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:21 am

Why not taking the thread about 96L and rename it to Vince?
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#12 Postby Duffy » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:21 am

not by my thinking no
if it hits a landmass its not a fish as far as i am concerned
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#13 Postby P.K. » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:22 am

krysof wrote:also, is it considered a fish if it may make landfall in europe?


No, doesn't matter where it makes landfall.
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#14 Postby HenkL » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:25 am

Close-up (thanks to Albert)
Image
Last edited by HenkL on Mon Oct 10, 2005 3:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#15 Postby krysof » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:27 am

If the SST's were warmer, than Vince could have been a hurricane I belive.
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:29 am

GO VINCE!!!! WILL PORTUGAL ISSUE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ITS COAST?!?!?
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#17 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:32 am

That looks like a hurricane to me... :eek:
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#18 Postby krysof » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:35 am

TS or STS with an eye tend to have an eye when SST's are quite cool. I think this is a sub-tropical then tropical.
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#19 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:36 am

The quickscats show a tight wind field...In also the Trmm/85h data shows a well defined eye wall. This is purely tropical!
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 09, 2005 8:37 am

GOODBYE 1887 & 1995, HELLO 2005.

That's what was said in the record books.
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