Wilma Recon Reports

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cycloneye
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Wilma Recon Reports

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:56 am

PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 17N AND 80W FOR 16/2000Z.


The above is what the plan of the day said on friday which was for a task on sunday around 4 PM EDT.But reading the TWO they say a plane will be available (If Necessary) later today.I assume if they decide to go it would be at the same time as the above or around 4 PM EDT.I have to be off-line for a few hours this morning and early afternoon so if they cancel the flight I will take the sticky out when I come back. :)
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Oct 25, 2005 5:57 am, edited 224 times in total.
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#2 Postby x-y-no » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:23 am

I'll be surprised if they don't send recon this afternoon. This system is way too healthy looking right now, and I don't see any factors to stop continued development.
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#3 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:30 am

x-y-no wrote:I'll be surprised if they don't send recon this afternoon. This system is way too healthy looking right now, and I don't see any factors to stop continued development.


They are going to have to upgrade w/out going in...
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#4 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:32 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
x-y-no wrote:I'll be surprised if they don't send recon this afternoon. This system is way too healthy looking right now, and I don't see any factors to stop continued development.


They are going to have to upgrade w/out going in...


They don't "have" to. That's up to the forecaster's discretion.
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#5 Postby skysummit » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:43 am

senorpepr wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
x-y-no wrote:I'll be surprised if they don't send recon this afternoon. This system is way too healthy looking right now, and I don't see any factors to stop continued development.


They are going to have to upgrade w/out going in...


They don't "have" to. That's up to the forecaster's discretion.


...and if it's Avila, it's going to be nothing for another day.
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#6 Postby Thunder44 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:50 am

skysummit wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
x-y-no wrote:I'll be surprised if they don't send recon this afternoon. This system is way too healthy looking right now, and I don't see any factors to stop continued development.


They are going to have to upgrade w/out going in...


They don't "have" to. That's up to the forecaster's discretion.


...and if it's Avila, it's going to be nothing for another day.


Looking at how they initialized the 12z models higher at winds of 30kts, they probably feel it's close to becoming a TD now, if not so already. They will probably send the plane in. But they didn't put out a new schedule yesterday, so we have no idea, when it's suppose to take off.
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#7 Postby skysummit » Sat Oct 15, 2005 8:53 am

Thunder44 wrote:
skysummit wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
x-y-no wrote:I'll be surprised if they don't send recon this afternoon. This system is way too healthy looking right now, and I don't see any factors to stop continued development.


They are going to have to upgrade w/out going in...


They don't "have" to. That's up to the forecaster's discretion.


...and if it's Avila, it's going to be nothing for another day.


Looking at how they initialized the 12z models higher at winds of 30kts, they probably feel it's close to becoming a TD now, if not so already. They will probably send the plane in. But they didn't put out a new schedule yesterday, so we have no idea, when it's suppose to take off.


They've sent recon out for much worst looking systems than this, so I think they'll head in today. Everything points to this as a TD already. All we need is it to be official.
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#8 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:15 am

I should be around to decode recon obs. However, here's the S2K link for raw obs: http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm
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#9 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 15, 2005 9:29 am

Code: Select all

790
NOUS42 KNHC 151430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 15 OCT 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z OCT 2005
         TCPOD NUMBER.....05-140

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
       A. 16/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 02IIA CYCLONE
       C. 16/1330Z
       D. 18.0N 80.5W
       E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2130Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE TWICE A DAY FIXES
       BEGINNING AT 17/1800Z.
    3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING AIRCRAFT WILL
       INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM AT 15/1900Z TODAY.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
                       JWP


Looks like recon is scheduled at 19Z or 3pm EDT.
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#10 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:04 am

Senor...

Just started reading the book about the lost flight into Janet...

Recon was flying as low as 400ft into the eye on some of the missions. Is this flight level normal?
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#11 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:07 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:Senor...

Just started reading the book about the lost flight into Janet...

Recon was flying as low as 400ft into the eye on some of the missions. Is this flight level normal?


In earlier days they tried to go as low as they could. They wanted to get the most accurate measurements without having to use a conversion method, which at that time wasn't as perfected as they are too. You can thank the GPS dropsondes for that.

Today, they tend to reserve those flight levels (<1,000ft) for tropical depressions. Tropical storms are usually around 5,000ft and hurricanes are usually around 10,000ft. Essentially it all depends on how strong the system is and what sort of turbulence they are experiencing. If they run into too severe of turbulence they'll immediately pull up to the next standard level and maintain that altitude for the remainder of the mission.
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#12 Postby fasterdisaster » Sat Oct 15, 2005 10:17 am

According to the 11:30 TWO the NHC thinks it is either a TD or verrry close to being one. At least that's my interpretation.
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2005 11:09 am

SXXX50 KNHC 151600
AF309 01IIA INVEST HDOB 04 KNHC
1549. 3300N 08532W 06294 0334 305 017 143 277 017 06626 0000000000
1550 3259N 08533W 06397 0332 306 015 153 281 015 06737 0000000000
1550. 3257N 08534W 06495 0337 306 016 159 285 017 06841 0000000000
1551 3255N 08535W 06585 0343 307 017 167 289 017 06937 0000000000
1551. 3253N 08536W 06674 0349 307 018 173 293 018 07032 0000000000
1552 3251N 08537W 06767 0353 302 016 179 297 017 07129 0000000000
1552. 3249N 08538W 06861 0359 295 014 183 301 014 07230 0000000000
1553 3248N 08539W 06925 0363 304 015 187 303 015 07298 0000000000
1553. 3246N 08540W 06994 0368 309 016 193 307 017 07372 0000000000
1554 3244N 08541W 07060 0372 310 018 199 309 018 07441 0000000000
1554. 3242N 08542W 07152 0375 298 017 205 313 018 07537 0000000000
1555 3240N 08543W 07213 0379 292 018 209 317 020 07603 0000000000
1555. 3238N 08544W 07295 0384 290 021 217 321 022 07690 0000000000
1556 3236N 08545W 07320 0386 290 022 221 327 022 07717 0000000000
1556. 3234N 08546W 07319 0384 291 023 221 331 024 07714 0000000000
1557 3232N 08547W 07318 0382 290 024 221 337 026 07711 0000000000
1557. 3230N 08549W 07319 0383 290 025 221 341 026 07713 0000000000
1558 3228N 08550W 07318 0385 291 024 221 343 024 07713 0000000000
1558. 3226N 08551W 07317 0385 291 025 221 347 025 07713 0000000000
1559 3223N 08552W 07316 0387 292 027 219 353 028 07715 0000000000


Here we go.Plane takes off.
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#14 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sat Oct 15, 2005 11:10 am

YES!
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#15 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 15, 2005 11:13 am

Good catch, Luis.

Latest Recon Position: 149 mi NNE of Fort Walton Beach, Florida
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#16 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 15, 2005 11:14 am

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: INVEST (IIL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF309
Flt Data Number: 05
Latest Recon Position: 89 mi NNE of Fort Walton Beach, Florida

#01: 15:59:30Z; 32.4°N 85.9°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1276ft; Wind: WNW (293°) @ 33mph (Max: 33mph); Temp: -7F; Dewpt: -33F; Radar Height: 25315ft
#02: 16:00:00Z; 32.3°N 85.9°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1283ft; Wind: WNW (295°) @ 35mph (Max: 35mph); Temp: -7F; Dewpt: -34F; Radar Height: 25322ft
#03: 16:00:30Z; 32.3°N 85.9°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1289ft; Wind: WNW (295°) @ 36mph (Max: 36mph); Temp: -6F; Dewpt: -36F; Radar Height: 25328ft
#04: 16:01:00Z; 32.2°N 86°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1299ft; Wind: WNW (294°) @ 37mph (Max: 38mph); Temp: -6F; Dewpt: -37F; Radar Height: 25338ft
#05: 16:01:30Z; 32.2°N 86°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1306ft; Wind: WNW (295°) @ 40mph (Max: 41mph); Temp: -5F; Dewpt: -38F; Radar Height: 25344ft
#06: 16:02:00Z; 32.2°N 86°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1312ft; Wind: WNW (295°) @ 45mph (Max: 46mph); Temp: -4F; Dewpt: -39F; Radar Height: 25351ft
#07: 16:02:30Z; 32.1°N 86°W; PA: 23993ft; D-Value: 1309ft; Wind: WNW (297°) @ 47mph (Max: 47mph); Temp: -3F; Dewpt: -39F; Radar Height: 25341ft
#08: 16:03:00Z; 32.1°N 86°W; PA: 23996ft; D-Value: 1309ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 45mph (Max: 46mph); Temp: -4F; Dewpt: -40F; Radar Height: 25341ft
#09: 16:03:30Z; 32°N 86.1°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1312ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 44mph (Max: 45mph); Temp: -4F; Dewpt: -40F; Radar Height: 25351ft
#10: 16:04:00Z; 32°N 86.1°W; PA: 24006ft; D-Value: 1312ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 44mph (Max: 45mph); Temp: -4F; Dewpt: -40F; Radar Height: 25358ft
#11: 16:04:30Z; 32°N 86.1°W; PA: 23996ft; D-Value: 1316ft; Wind: WNW (297°) @ 44mph (Max: 45mph); Temp: -4F; Dewpt: -41F; Radar Height: 25351ft
#12: 16:05:00Z; 31.9°N 86.1°W; PA: 24006ft; D-Value: 1319ft; Wind: WNW (295°) @ 44mph (Max: 44mph); Temp: -4F; Dewpt: -41F; Radar Height: 25364ft
#13: 16:05:30Z; 31.9°N 86.1°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1325ft; Wind: WNW (294°) @ 45mph (Max: 46mph); Temp: -4F; Dewpt: -41F; Radar Height: 25364ft
#14: 16:06:00Z; 31.8°N 86.2°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1335ft; Wind: WNW (291°) @ 47mph (Max: 47mph); Temp: -3F; Dewpt: -41F; Radar Height: 25374ft
#15: 16:06:30Z; 31.8°N 86.2°W; PA: 23996ft; D-Value: 1342ft; Wind: WNW (291°) @ 48mph (Max: 48mph); Temp: -3F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25374ft
#16: 16:07:00Z; 31.8°N 86.2°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1339ft; Wind: WNW (292°) @ 50mph (Max: 50mph); Temp: -3F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25377ft
#17: 16:07:30Z; 31.7°N 86.2°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1342ft; Wind: WNW (293°) @ 48mph (Max: 48mph); Temp: -2F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25381ft
#18: 16:08:00Z; 31.7°N 86.3°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1352ft; Wind: WNW (293°) @ 48mph (Max: 48mph); Temp: -3F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25394ft
#19: 16:08:30Z; 31.6°N 86.3°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1355ft; Wind: WNW (295°) @ 47mph (Max: 47mph); Temp: -2F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25394ft
#20: 16:09:00Z; 31.6°N 86.3°W; PA: 23993ft; D-Value: 1352ft; Wind: WNW (297°) @ 50mph (Max: 50mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25384ft
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#17 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 15, 2005 11:23 am

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: INVEST (IIL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF309
Flt Data Number: 06
Latest Recon Position: 22 mi NNE of Fort Walton Beach, Florida Google Maps Recon Position -- Click Here

#01: 16:09:30Z; 31.6°N 86.3°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1348ft; Wind: WNW (297°) @ 50mph (Max: 51mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25390ft
#02: 16:10:00Z; 31.5°N 86.3°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1339ft; Wind: WNW (298°) @ 51mph (Max: 51mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25374ft
#03: 16:10:30Z; 31.5°N 86.4°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1348ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 51mph (Max: 52mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25387ft
#04: 16:11:00Z; 31.4°N 86.4°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1348ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 51mph (Max: 51mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25387ft
#05: 16:11:30Z; 31.4°N 86.4°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1342ft; Wind: WNW (298°) @ 50mph (Max: 50mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25384ft
#06: 16:12:00Z; 31.4°N 86.4°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1339ft; Wind: WNW (298°) @ 48mph (Max: 50mph); Temp: -2F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25377ft
#07: 16:12:30Z; 31.3°N 86.4°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1345ft; Wind: WNW (298°) @ 47mph (Max: 48mph); Temp: -2F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25384ft
#08: 16:13:00Z; 31.3°N 86.5°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1348ft; Wind: WNW (297°) @ 48mph (Max: 48mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25390ft
#09: 16:13:30Z; 31.2°N 86.5°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1352ft; Wind: WNW (296°) @ 50mph (Max: 50mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25390ft
#10: 16:14:00Z; 31.2°N 86.5°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1355ft; Wind: WNW (297°) @ 50mph (Max: 50mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25394ft
#11: 16:14:30Z; 31.2°N 86.5°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1358ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 50mph (Max: 50mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25397ft
#12: 16:15:00Z; 31.1°N 86.5°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1358ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 51mph (Max: 51mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25400ft
#13: 16:15:30Z; 31.1°N 86.6°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1375ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 50mph (Max: 50mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25413ft
#14: 16:16:00Z; 31°N 86.6°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1378ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 48mph (Max: 48mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25420ft
#15: 16:16:30Z; 31°N 86.6°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1381ft; Wind: WNW (300°) @ 48mph (Max: 48mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25420ft
#16: 16:17:30Z; 30.9°N 86.6°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1385ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 46mph (Max: 46mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25427ft
#17: 16:18:00Z; 30.9°N 86.7°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1381ft; Wind: WNW (298°) @ 45mph (Max: 46mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25423ft
#18: 16:18:30Z; 30.8°N 86.7°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1391ft; Wind: WNW (297°) @ 45mph (Max: 45mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25436ft
#19: 16:19:00Z; 30.8°N 86.7°W; PA: 23996ft; D-Value: 1417ft; Wind: WNW (296°) @ 45mph (Max: 45mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25453ft
#20: 16:19:30Z; 30.7°N 86.7°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1424ft; Wind: WNW (295°) @ 46mph (Max: 46mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -44F; Radar Height: 25466ft
Note: **** means data accuracy was suspect
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#18 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 15, 2005 11:33 am

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: INVEST (IIL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF309
Flt Data Number: 07
Latest Recon Position: 49 mi SSE of Fort Walton Beach, Florida Google Maps Recon Position -- Click Here

#01: 16:20:00Z; 30.7°N 86.7°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1401ft; Wind: WNW (296°) @ 46mph (Max: 46mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -45F; Radar Height: 25443ft
#02: 16:20:30Z; 30.6°N 86.7°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1381ft; Wind: WNW (297°) @ 47mph (Max: 47mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -44F; Radar Height: 25423ft
#03: 16:21:00Z; 30.6°N 86.7°W; PA: 23996ft; D-Value: 1385ft; Wind: WNW (298°) @ 46mph (Max: 47mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -44F; Radar Height: 25423ft
#04: 16:21:30Z; 30.6°N 86.6°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1391ft; Wind: WNW (298°) @ 45mph (Max: 46mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25433ft
#05: 16:22:00Z; 30.5°N 86.6°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1398ft; Wind: WNW (298°) @ 45mph (Max: 45mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25440ft
#06: 16:22:30Z; 30.5°N 86.6°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1398ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 44mph (Max: 44mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25443ft
#07: 16:23:00Z; 30.4°N 86.6°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1404ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 44mph (Max: 44mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25446ft
#08: 16:23:30Z; 30.4°N 86.6°W; PA: 24006ft; D-Value: 1407ft; Wind: WNW (298°) @ 43mph (Max: 43mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25453ft
#09: 16:24:00Z; 30.3°N 86.6°W; PA: 23996ft; D-Value: 1407ft; Wind: WNW (298°) @ 43mph (Max: 43mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25446ft
#10: 16:24:30Z; 30.3°N 86.6°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1407ft; Wind: WNW (298°) @ 40mph (Max: 41mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25453ft
#11: 16:25:00Z; 30.2°N 86.6°W; PA: 23996ft; D-Value: 1411ft; Wind: WNW (300°) @ 40mph (Max: 40mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25446ft
#12: 16:25:30Z; 30.2°N 86.6°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1414ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 40mph (Max: 41mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25456ft
#13: 16:26:00Z; 30.1°N 86.6°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1417ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 39mph (Max: 40mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25459ft
#14: 16:26:30Z; 30.1°N 86.6°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1421ft; Wind: WNW (302°) @ 37mph (Max: 38mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25459ft
#15: 16:27:00Z; 30°N 86.6°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1417ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 37mph (Max: 37mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -43F; Radar Height: 25463ft
#16: 16:27:30Z; 30°N 86.6°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1421ft; Wind: WNW (299°) @ 37mph (Max: 38mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -42F; Radar Height: 25466ft
#17: 16:28:00Z; 29.9°N 86.6°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1424ft; Wind: WNW (296°) @ 39mph (Max: 40mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -32F; Radar Height: 25466ft
#18: 16:28:30Z; 29.9°N 86.5°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1421ft; Wind: WNW (296°) @ 40mph (Max: 41mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -27F; Radar Height: 25466ft
#19: 16:29:00Z; 29.9°N 86.5°W; PA: 23999ft; D-Value: 1421ft; Wind: WNW (297°) @ 41mph (Max: 41mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -20F; Radar Height: 25459ft
#20: 16:29:30Z; 29.8°N 86.5°W; PA: 24003ft; D-Value: 1421ft; Wind: WNW (297°) @ 40mph (Max: 41mph); Temp: -1F; Dewpt: -19F; Radar Height: 25466ft
Last edited by senorpepr on Sat Oct 15, 2005 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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senorpepr
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#19 Postby senorpepr » Sat Oct 15, 2005 11:37 am

FYI... I've added a Google Maps link to my decoder. It'll give you a quick idea of where recon is.
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#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 15, 2005 11:38 am

senorpepr wrote:FYI... I've added a Google Maps link to my decoder. It'll give you a quick idea of where recon is.


Ok Mike bring it on. :)
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