Wilma Recon Reports

[jpigott]

What doe's pressure have to do with upgrading a cyclone....The answer is not one darn thing.

No, but you have to do a reality check. My hunch is that they are waiting for a little bit more data before making a pretty significant upgrade.

they made 2 passes and both supported a lot more than a 120mph cane. With Wilma's proximity to the coast and forward speed i think its time to err on the side of caution, you know prepare the people for what might be coming. They can always come back and say the data was bad. It would be a lot easier than saying "we couldn't believe it intensified that quickly so we just chose to ignore the data."

[Derek Ortt]

there is some debate regarding this near land due to shoaling of the waves.

That said, the winds do need to be incresed... at leats before the eye wall arrives in about an hour

[WxGuy1]

the upgrade can come at 4 a.m.

After many overstatements of the winds, possibly including Katrina, they are probably making sure this is more intense. I'd have liked to have seen 130 m.p.h.

derek you are a pro...the data does not lie. Fact is fact. 135kts at 700mb = 140mph. Not 120mph...correct?

That using the standard reduction. PRevious studies have shown that this reduction is not always very good, and sometimes can be in error quite a bit. If they aren't getting SFMR or dropsonde verification, they probably are hesitant to upgrade her.

[mtm4319]

210
SXXX50 KNHC 240726
AF305 2424A WILMA HDOB 63 KNHC
0713. 2545N 08226W 03046 5173 131 083 096 096 084 02916 0000000000
0714 2546N 08225W 03048 5166 131 080 104 104 082 02926 0000000000
0714. 2547N 08224W 03048 5158 132 078 106 106 078 02933 0000000000
0715 2549N 08223W 03047 5152 135 076 108 108 079 02938 0000000000
0715. 2550N 08222W 03045 5147 138 076 108 108 076 02941 0000000000
0716 2552N 08221W 03051 5139 138 081 096 096 082 02956 0000000000
0716. 2553N 08220W 03045 5134 137 084 088 088 085 02955 0000000100
0717 2554N 08218W 03046 5127 137 078 092 092 083 02962 0000000100
0718 2557N 08216W 03046 5116 138 081 090 090 083 02973 0000000100
0718. 2558N 08215W 03049 5112 140 078 098 098 079 02981 0000000000
0719 2600N 08214W 03045 5107 142 075 098 098 079 02981 0000000000
0719. 2601N 08213W 03054 5102 141 084 090 090 088 02996 0000000100
0720 2603N 08211W 03038 5097 133 077 080 080 080 02985 0000000100
0720. 2604N 08210W 03050 5095 129 073 072 072 075 02999 0000000100
0721 2605N 08209W 03047 5091 129 073 070 070 075 03000 0000000100
0721. 2607N 08208W 03045 5086 131 072 068 068 074 03003 0000000100
0722 2608N 08207W 03046 5081 131 071 068 068 071 03009 0000000100
0722. 2609N 08206W 03048 5077 130 072 066 066 074 03014 0000000000
0723 2610N 08205W 03048 5073 130 072 072 072 073 03018 0000000000
0723. 2612N 08204W 03047 5068 130 072 070 070 073 03021 0000000000

[mtm4319]

Old flight - disregard.

526
UZNT13 KNHC 240721
XXAA 74078 99256 70825 08152 99966 25407 06071 00809 ///// /////
92380 23008 08101 85117 20822 10598 70780 10200 88999 77999
31313 09608 80710
61616 AF305 2424A WILMA OB 41
62626 EYEWALL 040 SPL 2563N08265W 0713 MBL WND 07593 AEV 20507 DL
M WND 09098 965822 WL150 07083 082 =
XXBB 74078 99256 70825 08152 00966 25407 11913 22205 22850 20822
33735 14611 44707 13600 55697 08800
21212 00966 06071 11959 07084 22951 07585 33942 07598 44935 08097
55905 08609 66900 08604 77895 09109 88887 09105 99871 09610 11860
09599 22850 10598 33697 11581
31313 09608 80710
61616 AF305 2424A WILMA OB 41
62626 EYEWALL 040 SPL 2563N08265W 0713 MBL WND 07593 AEV 20507 DL
M WND 09098 965822 WL150 07083 082 =

[Derek Ortt]

71KT at the surface on the northern side

[EyELeSs1]

there is some debate regarding this near land due to shoaling of the waves.

That said, the winds do need to be incresed... at leats before the eye wall arrives in about an hour

Derek, in terms of wind speed, how badly do you think miami will be affected?

[curtadams]

721 - isn't that five flights back? We're at 726. Plus 966 is too high a pressure for an accurate eyewall drop now.

[Derek Ortt]

still thinking cat 2, though if this is a 4, I am wishing

[Windy]

That's pretty lopsided. Though, given storm motion, the SE quad should be the most intense, correct?

[mtm4319]

721 - isn't that five flights back? We're at 726. Plus 966 is too high a pressure for an accurate eyewall drop now.

I thought that meant 0721 UTC.

[EyELeSs1]

That's pretty lopsided. Though, given storm motion, the SE quad should be the most intense, correct?

correct

[curtadams]

721 - isn't that five flights back? We're at 726. Plus 966 is too high a pressure for an accurate eyewall drop now.

I thought that meant 0721 UTC.

These terse reports are a recipe for confusion.

[mtm4319]

429
URNT11 KNHC 240732
97779 07254 20263 8200/ 30500 14069 08088 /3957
RMK AF305 2424A WILMA OB 42
LAST REPORT

Looks like this flight is done collecting observations. Not sure where the next one is, but it should be approaching fairly soon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

SXXX50 KNHC 240706
AF302 2524A WILMA HDOB 10 KNHC
0654 2856N 08331W 06400 0260 245 016 109 275 016 06687 0000000000
0654. 2854N 08330W 06401 0261 243 016 111 275 017 06688 0000000000
0655 2851N 08330W 06405 0261 239 018 109 233 018 06692 0000000000
0655. 2849N 08329W 06401 0262 243 017 113 235 018 06690 0000000000
0656 2846N 08328W 06402 0265 238 020 111 165 021 06693 0000000000
0656. 2844N 08328W 06400 0263 239 020 107 137 020 06690 0000000000
0657 2841N 08327W 06401 0263 232 015 107 125 018 06691 0000000000
0657. 2838N 08327W 06401 0265 216 011 107 125 012 06693 0000000000
0658 2836N 08326W 06401 0265 209 009 109 125 009 06692 0000000000
0658. 2833N 08326W 06401 0266 204 007 111 121 008 06693 0000000000
0659 2831N 08325W 06400 0267 228 003 111 123 004 06693 0000000000
0659. 2828N 08325W 06401 0267 221 004 111 125 005 06695 0000000000
0700 2825N 08324W 06401 0267 208 002 111 123 004 06694 0000000000
0700. 2823N 08323W 06399 0269 204 011 107 117 014 06694 0000000000
0701 2820N 08323W 06402 0266 194 016 105 115 017 06695 0000000000
0701. 2818N 08322W 06401 0264 167 016 103 119 017 06692 0000000000
0702 2815N 08322W 06401 0262 161 016 103 119 017 06690 0000000000
0702. 2813N 08321W 06402 0263 163 017 103 113 018 06692 0000000000
0703 2810N 08321W 06401 0264 163 016 101 109 017 06691 0000000000
0703. 2808N 08320W 06401 0264 172 017 101 107 018 06692 0000000000






000

SXXX50 KNHC 240714
AF305 2424A WILMA HDOB 62 KNHC
0703. 2519N 08248W 03047 5303 120 017 174 104 019 02787 0000000000
0704 2520N 08247W 03048 5300 121 024 160 114 026 02791 0000000000
0704. 2521N 08246W 03045 5297 123 027 156 118 028 02792 0000000000
0705 2523N 08245W 03045 5294 122 027 154 126 028 02794 0000000000
0705. 2524N 08244W 03049 5289 117 027 152 146 027 02803 0000000000
0706 2525N 08243W 03043 5285 118 031 140 140 034 02801 0000000100
0706. 2527N 08242W 03052 5281 118 033 128 128 034 02814 0000000100
0707 2528N 08240W 03039 5278 124 036 146 146 044 02804 0000000000
0707. 2529N 08239W 03058 5272 130 052 122 122 058 02829 0000000000
0708 2531N 08238W 03045 5268 133 060 114 114 067 02820 0000000100
0708. 2532N 08237W 03049 5262 135 068 112 112 075 02830 0000000100
0709 2534N 08236W 03049 5254 132 080 102 102 082 02838 0000000100
0709. 2535N 08235W 03047 5244 128 088 098 098 089 02846 0000000100
0710 2536N 08234W 03042 5233 122 082 092 092 083 02853 0000000100
0710. 2537N 08233W 03043 5221 115 081 088 088 083 02866 0000000100
0711 2538N 08232W 03048 5214 117 080 086 086 081 02877 0000000100
0711. 2540N 08231W 03052 5204 120 081 086 086 081 02891 0000000100
0712 2541N 08230W 03048 5197 125 081 086 086 082 02894 0000000100
0712. 2542N 08229W 03044 5190 128 077 088 088 077 02897 0000000100
0713 2543N 08228W 03049 5182 130 079 090 090 082 02910 0000000000






000

SXXX50 KNHC 240715
AF302 2524A WILMA HDOB 11 KNHC
0704 2805N 08320W 06401 0263 175 019 101 103 019 06691 0000000000
0704. 2803N 08319W 06401 0262 173 017 101 107 017 06690 0000000000
0705 2800N 08319W 06400 0261 176 015 099 103 016 06689 0000000000
0705. 2758N 08318W 06400 0260 177 015 097 103 016 06687 0000000000
0706 2755N 08318W 06397 0258 176 016 093 101 017 06685 0000000000
0706. 2753N 08317W 06401 0259 170 014 095 099 015 06687 0000000000
0707 2750N 08316W 06401 0259 148 014 095 097 016 06687 0000000000
0707. 2748N 08316W 06400 0262 141 023 095 095 026 06690 0000000000
0708 2745N 08315W 06401 0257 134 023 095 095 024 06686 0000000000
0708. 2743N 08315W 06400 0257 144 019 095 095 020 06684 0000000000
0709 2740N 08314W 06401 0258 147 028 095 095 028 06686 0000000000
0709. 2738N 08314W 06399 0253 138 026 093 093 029 06679 0000000000
0710 2736N 08313W 06402 0255 121 028 093 093 028 06684 0000000000
0710. 2733N 08313W 06400 0253 122 025 091 091 026 06680 0000000000
0711 2731N 08312W 06337 0262 131 022 089 089 024 06620 0000000000
0711. 2728N 08312W 05980 0251 126 023 073 073 024 06244 0000000000
0712 2725N 08311W 05510 0213 115 030 053 053 034 05734 0000000000
0712. 2723N 08311W 05171 0182 103 033 041 041 034 05363 0000000100
0713 2720N 08310W 04854 0153 089 031 029 029 032 05017 0000000100
0713. 2718N 08310W 04619 0130 099 035 017 017 039 04758 0000000100






000

SXXX50 KNHC 240725
AF302 2524A WILMA HDOB 12 KNHC
0714 2716N 08309W 04368 0111 114 030 005 005 030 04487 0000000000
0714. 2714N 08309W 04132 0091 127 030 012 012 030 04234 0000000000
0715 2712N 08308W 03871 0074 110 029 032 032 035 03955 0000000000
0715. 2710N 08308W 03633 0056 084 022 038 038 027 03700 0000000100
0716 2708N 08307W 03427 0042 080 034 042 042 040 03480 0000000100
0716. 2706N 08307W 03247 0023 080 042 054 054 046 03281 0000000100
0717 2704N 08307W 03083 0002 067 053 066 066 056 03095 0000000100
0717. 2702N 08306W 03048 5005 070 054 066 066 056 03052 0000000100
0718 2701N 08306W 03049 5008 086 046 070 070 047 03050 0000000100
0718. 2659N 08305W 03049 5013 101 046 072 072 047 03045 0000000100
0719 2657N 08305W 03053 5014 100 042 070 070 043 03048 0000000100
0719. 2656N 08305W 03042 5017 102 042 076 076 042 03034 0000000100
0720 2654N 08304W 03052 5014 088 046 078 078 049 03047 0000000100
0720. 2652N 08304W 03044 5008 089 043 078 078 045 03045 0000000100
0721 2651N 08304W 03048 5012 089 046 076 076 048 03045 0000000100
0721. 2649N 08303W 03045 5028 095 044 078 078 045 03026 0000000100
0722 2648N 08303W 03051 5028 091 045 080 080 045 03032 0000000100
0722. 2646N 08303W 03048 5050 085 041 084 084 045 03007 0000000000
0723 2644N 08302W 03049 5013 090 037 080 080 038 03045 0000000000
0723. 2643N 08302W 03046 5011 094 037 080 080 038 03045 0000000000






000

SXXX50 KNHC 240726
AF305 2424A WILMA HDOB 63 KNHC
0713. 2545N 08226W 03046 5173 131 083 096 096 084 02916 0000000000
0714 2546N 08225W 03048 5166 131 080 104 104 082 02926 0000000000
0714. 2547N 08224W 03048 5158 132 078 106 106 078 02933 0000000000
0715 2549N 08223W 03047 5152 135 076 108 108 079 02938 0000000000
0715. 2550N 08222W 03045 5147 138 076 108 108 076 02941 0000000000
0716 2552N 08221W 03051 5139 138 081 096 096 082 02956 0000000000
0716. 2553N 08220W 03045 5134 137 084 088 088 085 02955 0000000100
0717 2554N 08218W 03046 5127 137 078 092 092 083 02962 0000000100
0718 2557N 08216W 03046 5116 138 081 090 090 083 02973 0000000100
0718. 2558N 08215W 03049 5112 140 078 098 098 079 02981 0000000000
0719 2600N 08214W 03045 5107 142 075 098 098 079 02981 0000000000
0719. 2601N 08213W 03054 5102 141 084 090 090 088 02996 0000000100
0720 2603N 08211W 03038 5097 133 077 080 080 080 02985 0000000100
0720. 2604N 08210W 03050 5095 129 073 072 072 075 02999 0000000100
0721 2605N 08209W 03047 5091 129 073 070 070 075 03000 0000000100
0721. 2607N 08208W 03045 5086 131 072 068 068 074 03003 0000000100
0722 2608N 08207W 03046 5081 131 071 068 068 071 03009 0000000100
0722. 2609N 08206W 03048 5077 130 072 066 066 074 03014 0000000000
0723 2610N 08205W 03048 5073 130 072 072 072 073 03018 0000000000
0723. 2612N 08204W 03047 5068 130 072 070 070 073 03021 0000000000





[Windy]

What happened to the NHCWX data feed?

[mtm4319]

What happened to the NHCWX data feed?

I wonder if the second flight turned back.

[bigmoney755]

is the nhc withholding information?

[deltadog03]

this sh*t makes me mad...I hope everything is ok with the plane...NHC makes me mad cuz, they had all of the data to upgrade this...why is this important to me? well, don't hide anything tell the truth. Now, this looks like it may get onshore before recon gets back with anything...just might have missed the only chance to really see if this is a cat 4...

[Windy]

Why would they turn back? Instrument probs? They were getting some bizarre wind readings when they were still over GA.