South Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati (18P)

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HURAKAN
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South Pacific: Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati (18P)

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Mar 17, 2006 7:18 pm

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 17/2311 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16F [1004 HPA] NEAR 14.9S 174.0E AT 172100UTC,
MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GMS5/IR/VIS
ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST NEAR 29C.

SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF A 250HPA RIDGE AXIS IN AN ENVIRONMET
OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 30 KNOTS ALOFT.
NO ORGANISED CONVECTION NEAR LLCC. GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC/AVN] STEER THE
SYSTEM SOUTHWEST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

DEPRESSIONS HERE CONTINUE TO POP!

Image
Last edited by HURAKAN on Wed Mar 22, 2006 7:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Mar 17, 2006 7:19 pm

That looks ok but give it a few more hours.
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Coredesat

#3 Postby Coredesat » Sat Mar 18, 2006 5:50 am

Image

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 18/0902 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16F [1005 HPA] NEAR 14.5S 170.0E AT 180600UTC,
MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GMS5/IR WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHEREAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST NEAR 29C.

SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A DIFFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. CONVECTION REMAINS
DISORGANISED AND AT THIS STAGE IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE THE TRUE
LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTRE IS. GLOBAL MODELS
[UKGC,AVN,GASP,EC] STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST BUT HAVE IT WEAKENING
FURTHER.
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

This actually looks better than TD 15F (Larry) did before it became a TC. I don't really see why it would weaken.
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#4 Postby P.K. » Sat Mar 18, 2006 7:57 pm

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 18/2251 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16F [1000 HPA] NEAR 15.1S 166.5E AT 182100UTC,
MOVING SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VISIBLE
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST NEAR 29C.


MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT PLACED ON INNER EDGE OF BANDING FEATURE.
SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANISED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH OUTFLOW
FAIR TO GOOD IN MOST QUADRANTS. BANDING=0.55 DT=2.5 MET=2.5 PT=2.5
CI/FT=2.5. 16F CURRENTLY LIES TO THE NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT
250HPA WITH STEADY EASTERLIES ACROSS IT. WIND SHEAR OVER 16F REMAINS
MINIMAL AT THIS STAGE. STEERING IN THE MID-LEVELS MAINTAIN A WEST TO
SLIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT THEN GRADUAL MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST BEYOND 24 HOURS.

GLOBAL MODELS [UKGC,AVN,NOGAPS,EC] DO NOT INTENSIFY THE DEPRESSION
SIGNIFICANTLY.
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
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#5 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:00 pm

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.


Then what is Larry isn't it a SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
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#6 Postby NONAME » Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:03 pm

Larry is not forcasted by the same organiztion this is forcasted by RSMC NADI and larry is issued by Queensland.
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#7 Postby P.K. » Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:03 pm

Not in that area. :wink: :lol:
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#8 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:05 pm

I still find it ridiculous. :roll:
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#9 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:07 pm

This system is looking really good. 2.0/2.0t=30 knots.
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#10 Postby WindRunner » Sun Mar 19, 2006 9:22 am

Wati has developed overnight. NRL has it at 35kts and 997mb.

Image

Image
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#11 Postby WindRunner » Sun Mar 19, 2006 9:25 am

Advisory from Fiji - 35kts, 995mb.

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 19/1408 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Wati centre [995hPa] was located near 15.9 South
163.2 East at 191200 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation. Cyclone moving west-southwest 13 knots. Maximum
10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at 35 knots
increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33
knots within 90 miles of centre in the sectors from northwest through
north to east and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

LLCC now underneath the developing CDO. Overall organisation steadily
improving. Deep convection about central area steadily increased and
cooled past 12 hours. Outflow good to north but still restricted
elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on log10 spiral wrap of .6, yielding
DT=3.0. MET and PT agree at 3.0. Thus, T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24hrs. Wati lies
just to the north of the 250 hPa ridge axis. Vertical wind shear
around 15 to 25 knots but anticipated to decrease gradually. SST
around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is beeing steered west-southwest by a deep
mean northeast flow driven by a mid-level sub-tropical ridge to the
south. Consensus of available global models agree on steady
west-southwest track with slight, further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 200000 UTC near 16.7S 160.7E mov WSW 13kt with 45kt
close to centre.
24hrs valid at 201200 UTC near 17.9S 158.0E mov WSW 13kt with 50kt
close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 210000 UTC near 18.8S 156.0E mov WSW 12kt with 60kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid at 211200 UTC near 19.0S 154.1E mov WSW 12kt with 65kt
close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC Wati will be issued
around 192000UTC.
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#12 Postby P.K. » Sun Mar 19, 2006 10:05 am

I've posted a track map here as I can't get it to show up on here.
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#13 Postby Yarrah » Sun Mar 19, 2006 10:27 am

Will this system get a new name once it enters Brisbane's AoR?
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 19, 2006 11:13 am

Yarrah wrote:Will this system get a new name once it enters Brisbane's AoR?


No, that only happens when a system crosses from the WA to the Indian Ocean.
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Weatherfreak000

#15 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Mar 19, 2006 12:34 pm

Image



Round Two coming up?
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 19, 2006 12:47 pm

Unfortunately, it seems that way. :uarrow:
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#17 Postby KWT » Sun Mar 19, 2006 1:22 pm

Looks like its taking the same track as Larry, though it dioesn't look like being quite so strong as Larry right now its in a good place for it to reach at least cat-1/2 I'd have thought.

Yes, it does look like round 2.
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#18 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Mar 19, 2006 1:23 pm

oh great for those people!!!! guess we'll be monitoring this area for a little while longer...
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#19 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Mar 19, 2006 1:24 pm

Larry is looking outstanding now, and Wati is also looking very impressive!

Image
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Mar 19, 2006 2:28 pm

Storm Warning 011 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 19/1912 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Wati [987hPa] centre was located near 16.7 South
161.7 East at 191800 UTC. Position poor.
Repeat position 16.7S 161.7E at 191800 UTC.
Cyclone moving west-southwest at 16 knots.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre increasing to
55 knots in the next 12 hours.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the sector
from northwest through east to southwest and within 60 miles of
centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 17.9S 159.3E at 200600 UTC
and near 18.4S 157.1E at 201800 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 010.
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