While we're at it, What do you think Rita's LF winds were?

[Audrey2Katrina]

Seems like posting opinions on what windspeeds were for significant landfalling storms is an ongoing trend. I'll leave it up to one of you Floridians to ask about Wilma, and since the Katrina one was put up (twice: ) I figure why not find out what were your estimates of Rita's landfalling windspeeds?

Oh, and I'll respectfully make the same request Floyd did--please keep it civil

A2K

[CrazyC83]

I haven't really analyzed Rita yet, but it seems 115 makes sense.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I haven't really analyzed Rita yet, but it seems 115 makes sense.

It does; but I'm just curious since there was so much talk about folks expecting, if anything, a downgrade to a 2 for Rita, when she in fact turned out to keep her 3 status... at least as far as the NHC is concerned.

A2K

[CrazyC83]

Unlike with Katrina, Rita did not carry the winds all that far inland. That is how I think that it was 115. I'd be willing to go with 110 even. Hurricane conditions only went about 80-100 miles inland with Rita, as opposed to about 200 miles inland with Katrina. Tropical storm conditions went only about 300 miles inland with Rita (into Arkansas) as opposed to at least 1,000 miles inland with Katrina (all the way until basically dissipation).

[CrazyC83]

As for the other 2005 landfalls, here is what I think:

Arlene - NHC 60 mph, my estimate 50 mph (-10)
Bret - NHC 40 mph, my estimate 40 mph
Cindy - NHC 75 mph, my estimate 75 mph
Dennis (Cuba 1) - NHC 140 mph, my estimate 145 mph (+5)
Dennis (Cuba 2) - NHC 140 mph, my estimate 150 mph (+10)
Dennis (Florida) - NHC 120 mph, my estimate 120 mph
Emily (Grenada) - NHC 85 mph, my estimate 85 mph
Emily (Yucatan) - NHC 135 mph, my estimate 135 mph
Emily (NE Mexico) - NHC 125 mph, my estimate 135 mph (+10)
Gert - NHC 50 mph, my estimate 45 mph (-5)
Jose - NHC 60 mph, my estimate 65 mph (+5)
Katrina (Florida) - NHC 80 mph, my estimate 80 mph
Katrina (Louisiana) - NHC 125 mph, my estimate 140 mph (+15)
Katrina (Mississippi) - NHC 120 mph, my estimate 140 mph (+20)
Rita - NHC 115 mph, my estimate 115 mph
Stan (Yucatan) - NHC 45 mph, my estimate 50 mph (+5)
Stan (S Mexico) - NHC 80 mph, my estimate 85 mph (+5)
Tammy - NHC 50 mph, my estimate 45 mph (-5)
Vince - NHC 35 mph, my estimate 35 mph
Wilma (Cozumel) - NHC 150 mph, my estimate 160 mph (+10)
Wilma (Yucatan) - NHC 140 mph, my estimate 150 mph (+10)
Wilma (Florida) - NHC 120 mph, my estimate 120 mph
Alpha - NHC 50 mph, my estimate 50 mph
Beta - NHC 105 mph, my estimate 120 mph (+15)

[Derek Ortt]

winds were likely no higher than 105 m.p.h. from Rita. The fact that it caused 10 billion in damage as a 2 should not be a surprise after seeing Hatteras nearly leveled by a cat 2 hurricane


A CAT 2 HURRICANE WILL LEVEL ANYTHING IN ITS PATH. PLEASE DO NOT THINK THAT A 2 IS NOT A CATASTROPHE

[Audrey2Katrina]

A CAT 2 HURRICANE WILL LEVEL ANYTHING IN ITS PATH. PLEASE DO NOT THINK THAT A 2 IS NOT A CATASTROPHE

Heck, I believe Allison showed that a TS can do an awful lot of damage!

A2K

[benny]

I really disagree with all of you at landfall (at least 50%) or so. There was a confirmed tower on the left side of the circulation with 82 kt gusting to 101 kt in Port Arthur. This site is well inland and on the left side of the circulation. I have made this point before... but it had to be a lot higher on the east side of the system... and taking into account the storm motion and the change in exposure from open terrain to marine right on the coast.. 100 kt seems very good to me.

[Normandy]

wind swere likely no higher than 105 m.p.h. from Rita. The fact that it caused 10 billion in damage as a 2 should not be a surprie after seeing Hatteras nearly leveled by a cat 2 hurricane


A CAT 2 HURRICANE WILL LEVEL ANYTHING IN ITS PATH. PLEASE DO NOT THINK THAT A 2 IS NOT A CATASTROPHE

Um...i think your going a little over the edge here....because every cat 2 is not a catastrophe and wont level anything in its path.....Wilma (Cat3) did not destroy EVERYTHING she went over in Florida, and neither did Dennis (Cat3) when he hit the panhandle. Again, im not saying there was no damage, but neither of those two storms were "catastrophic" like an Andrew or a Katrina or Rita.

Maybe you should change your argument to "Large Cat-2s with 20 foot storm surges" will level anything in their path.

[Ixolib]

wind swere likely no higher than 105 m.p.h. from Rita. The fact that it caused 10 billion in damage as a 2 should not be a surprie after seeing Hatteras nearly leveled by a cat 2 hurricane


A CAT 2 HURRICANE WILL LEVEL ANYTHING IN ITS PATH. PLEASE DO NOT THINK THAT A 2 IS NOT A CATASTROPHE

While I'll agree that CAT 2 (wind) conditions will cause damage, the only structures that will be "LEVELED" are those that are structurally unfit in some fashion - which may include improperly secured mobile homes - or those inundated by storm tide. Overwhelmingly, most of the structures that encounter CAT 2 conditions will survive a hurricane of that strength and remain intact and habitable, not leveled...

Of course, coastal structures on barrier islands that suffer the surge effects of a CAT 2 storm may be less fortunate. If Hatteras was "nearly leveled", it was from the water, not the wind.

My home - and countless others - has withstood and "been in the path" of many storms with CAT 2 conditions and amazingly, it is STILL not "leveled".

For credibility's sake, it just seems to make more sense to use descriptors that are more in line with the actual results.

[AussieMark]

wind swere likely no higher than 105 m.p.h. from Rita. The fact that it caused 10 billion in damage as a 2 should not be a surprie after seeing Hatteras nearly leveled by a cat 2 hurricane


A CAT 2 HURRICANE WILL LEVEL ANYTHING IN ITS PATH. PLEASE DO NOT THINK THAT A 2 IS NOT A CATASTROPHE

was that Isabel?


true tho even category 2 hurricanes have been bad

i.e Georges (USA), Floyd (USA) and Isabel especially

[wxman57]

A CAT 2 HURRICANE WILL LEVEL ANYTHING IN ITS PATH. PLEASE DO NOT THINK THAT A 2 IS NOT A CATASTROPHE

Heck, I believe Allison showed that a TS can do an awful lot of damage!

A2K

Alison was a rain event here in Houston. There was no wind damage at all. It moved ashore on a Tuesday and dropped 6-12 inches of rain across southern parts of the city. There was no wind at all. It moved up inti northeast Texas and sat there until Friday, becoming a weak remnant low. On Friday night, it moved back south through Houston (as a very weak remnant low - just an area of convergence) at a speed of about 3 mph, dropping over 30 inches of rain just northeast of downtown.

So Alison wasn't even a TS or a TD when it produced over $5 billion in damage across the city.

[Scorpion]

Derek is pretty much right. Experiencing Cat 2 conditions is rare, and will likely only happen if a major hurricane makes landfall. Bonafide 105 mph sustained winds with gusts to 135 mph will likely level most unprotected older structures, or at least take the roofs off.

[Scorpion]

I think Rita came in with 110 mph winds.

[Derek Ortt]

except for Lake Okeechobee, South Florida primarily had cat 1 winds from Wilma, with cat 3 gusts

Yes, not every cat 2 hurricane is destructive, BECAUSE MOST PEOPLE SEE TS WINDS. Even in Isabel, only Hatteras had cat 2 winds, and the combination of wind and surge did devastate that part of the OBX

Any area that gets cat 2 winds, WILL be a disaster as that is near the lower end of F-2

[Audrey2Katrina]

So Alison wasn't even a TS or a TD when it produced over $5 billion in damage across the city.

Yup, and "damage" was precisely what I was referring to in the cited post.

[Frank P]

Gee for some reason this week I just want to disagree ... maybe it's from Katrina stress... but a Cat 2 will NOT destroy eveything in its path...

My house has been hit with at least Cat 2 winds directly on two occasions... Camille, which caused minor flood damage and a loss of shinges... the original house at the time had NO HURRICANE STRAPS and still was not damaged from Camille's winds.... which had to be at least Cat 2 in Biloxi... Probably much more..

Elena in 85 had at least Cat 2 winds and I had NO DAMAGE except a hand full of shingles blown off the front of the house.. not enough to claim insurance on...

I probably even came close to Cat 2 winds from Katrina... I think we had at least Cat 2 winds but others think they were less... I know that my second floor, found one block inland, still had all the vinyl siding on it, 75 % of the shingles, and it still had two wind turbines on the roof, both working... so the winds didn't do much damage to my second floor... first floor was destroyed by the surge, second floor floated up the street.

Now remember that I LIVE DIRECTLY ON THE BEACH IN BILOXI... I have nothing between me and the direct forces of the wind... so I've experienced first hand on the beach what Cat 2 winds can do.. and they hardly ever destroy everthing in its path... in fact you build your house to the applicable codes and you should expect your house to fare pretty well...

Here is what the NHC says about a Cat 2 Hurricane per the Saffir-Simpson scale...

"Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. "

This is no where close to leveling everything in its path... at least in the opinion of the SS scale

"Here is what the NHC says about a Cat 3"

"Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed."

That doesn't sound like complete devastation

"Here is what the NHC says about a Cat 4"

"More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. "

Again this is not leveling everything in its path, even for a Cat 4, so a well built home up to Hurricane standard should survive, provided of course they don't get surge damage... that's another story

now the poop on a Cat 5 per the SS scale

"Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage."

Ok, that sounds like leveling anything in its path... no argument from me here

A Cat 2 Hurricane relative to strait line winds will NOT level everything in its path, only poorly construction homes, and trailers... this does not factor in the impact on tornadoes... they are a beast of a different nature... hurricane spawn tornadoes may level everything in its path, but a weak TS can generate tornadoes

Then again maybe the SS scale is all hosed up... it was relative to storm surges as Katrina proved..

[Extremeweatherguy]

I really disagree with all of you at landfall (at least 50%) or so. There was a confirmed tower on the left side of the circulation with 82 kt gusting to 101 kt in Port Arthur. This site is well inland and on the left side of the circulation. I have made this point before... but it had to be a lot higher on the east side of the system... and taking into account the storm motion and the change in exposure from open terrain to marine right on the coast.. 100 kt seems very good to me.

Port Arthur is not "well inland", but it was slightly left of the center.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Looking at the data, and damage I'd say; Cat 2 around 105 mph, outside chance of 110 mph.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Gee for some reason this week I just want to disagree ... maybe it's from Katrina stress... but a Cat 2 will NOT destroy eveything in its path...

My house has been hit with at least Cat 2 winds directly on two occasions... Camille, which caused minor flood damage and a loss of shinges... the original house at the time had NO HURRICANE STRAPS and still was not damaged from Camille's winds.... which had to be at least Cat 2 in Biloxi... Probably much more..

Elena in 85 had at least Cat 2 winds and I had NO DAMAGE except a hand full of shingles blown off the front of the house.. not enough to claim insurance on...

I probably even came close to Cat 2 winds from Katrina... I think we had at least Cat 2 winds but others think they were less... I know that my second floor, found one block inland, still had all the vinyl siding on it, 75 % of the shingles, and it still had two wind turbines on the roof, both working... so the winds didn't do much damage to my second floor... first floor was destroyed by the surge, second floor floated up the street.

Now remember that I LIVE DIRECTLY ON THE BEACH IN BILOXI... I have nothing between me and the direct forces of the wind... so I've experienced first hand on the beach what Cat 2 winds can do.. and they hardly ever destroy everthing in its path... in fact you build your house to the applicable codes and you should expect your house to fare pretty well...

Here is what the NHC says about a Cat 2 Hurricane per the Saffir-Simpson scale...

"Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. "

This is no where close to leveling everything in its path... at least in the opinion of the SS scale

"Here is what the NHC says about a Cat 3"

"Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed."

That doesn't sound like complete devastation

"Here is what the NHC says about a Cat 4"

"More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. "

Again this is not leveling everything in its path, even for a Cat 4, so a well built home up to Hurricane standard should survive, provided of course they don't get surge damage... that's another story

now the poop on a Cat 5 per the SS scale

"Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage."

Ok, that sounds like leveling anything in its path... no argument from me here

A Cat 2 Hurricane relative to strait line winds will NOT level everything in its path, only poorly construction homes, and trailers... this does not factor in the impact on tornadoes... they are a beast of a different nature... hurricane spawn tornadoes may level everything in its path, but a weak TS can generate tornadoes

Then again maybe the SS scale is all hosed up... it was relative to storm surges as Katrina proved..

Well if that is what the SS scale says about Cat. 2 winds, then Charley had to have been a Cat. 2 in Orlando! The damage we got there was definitly more than their Cat. 1 description:

"No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage."

There was definitly damage to building structures fromn Charley in Orlando and hundreds of trees were down (some were very large trees). Some homes recieved window failure, and MANY homes lost over 25-50% of their roofing shingles. Many homes with back yard pool screens also lost parts or the entire structure of them. Since lots of the WIND damage (not surge), that was caused by Rita is similar to this...I would have to say that I feel she was a Cat. 2 at landfall (and may be a Cat. 3 just hours before). I think that the IMMEDIATE coast (on the east side), could have seen Cat. 3 force winds, and I believe that areas from east Beaumont to Lake Charles southward saw Cat. 2 winds, and from Jasper to the Boliver peninsula over to east of Lake Charles they saw Cat. 1 force winds. Once again...like Katrina...Surge was the main destroyer.