Highest storm surge in US history

[Audrey2Katrina]

A2K, I went into Google Earth and zoomed in on the Michoud Entergy power station near the Paris Road Bridge for a presentation I'm making in Tulane next Thursday morning.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Michoud1.jpg

Thanks for the pic. And good luck in the speak at Tulane. I have the daughter of a very good friend graduating from there. Here graduation party is the night before our big meetup in New Orleans. Haps she'll be in your audience, don't know where you'll make it; but I'll be checking with her to find out. Good luck!

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Oh I am definitely convinced those pics are accurate. When the first one was posted someone said that was from the school in Bay St. Louis. Turned out to be false, but not the actual picture.

Yeah, I heard/saw that too... tried to make it appear it was like some tsunami heading toward St. Stanislaus. I've seen the actual pics from St. Stanislaus on their own site...and believe me, it was bad enough! Sad about that beautiful oak that had withstood so much history in one of the pics that just is no more!

A2K

[Recurve]

Like to bring up two other storms again:
BETSY 65 -- Landfall directly over my location in Key Largo (before my time). I've found little documentation of surge height, so much of the coverage is of the New Orleans landfall later. Houses built before 1965 have flood marks about 7' above MSL (could be Donna or Betsy water mark). Worst flooding was likely north Key Largo, Elliott Key, Card Sound and south Biscayne Bay on the right side. I have also heard eye witness reports of the wind emptying waters of the sounds and Florida Bay on the back of Key Largo, with bayside flooding caused when the water returned in a rush. No confirmation of that.

Labor Day 1935 -- Reports on the ground put the surge around 18' max based on it reaching the top of the railroad grade at the south end of Long Key near the Long Key Fishing Camp, to the right of the center, I believe.

The hurricane had incredible max winds and low pressure, and I understand it was probably one of the smallest Cat 5s, Andrew-like but smaller still (and therefore a very tight gradient). Flooding appears to have been worst in Islamorada, on the right of the eye. I haven't seen flood heights recorded for Key Largo farther north (25 miles) or from Conch Key (landfall I believe). I'd really like to know whether there was a surge from the bayside from the left-front quadrant equivalent to the right-side, oceanside surge, and how far the surge extended on the right (northeast). From the track, it looks as if the landfall angle was bad, heading west-northwest at islands aligned south-southeast. There are large channels to funnel the surge between Lower Matecumbe and Long Key and lower islands, while Plantation Key and Key Largo are long and wider barriers.

One account (the weather observer at the LKFC) also suggests the surge receded significantly during eye passage, but backside winds brought a second oceanside surge (or a bayside surge?).

[Lindaloo]

Sorry A2K. The pics in the link CHRISTY posted.

Oh I am definitely convinced those pics are accurate. When the first one was posted someone said that was from the school in Bay St. Louis. Turned out to be false, but not the actual picture.

Yeah, there was a hoax going around that those pictures were of the storm surge hitting the MS coast. But they're from Entergy's Michoud power station along the Intracoastal Canal ENE of New Orleans near the Paris Road bridge. See my picture above. The pictures posted earlier show the surge in the Intracoastal Canal topping the levee below the bridge.

Thanks. Quite amazing, but yet, also probably VERY scary to see that.

Many good lucks to you and your Tulane presentation.

[Lindaloo]

Oh I am definitely convinced those pics are accurate. When the first one was posted someone said that was from the school in Bay St. Louis. Turned out to be false, but not the actual picture.

Yeah, I heard/saw that too... tried to make it appear it was like some tsunami heading toward St. Stanislaus. I've seen the actual pics from St. Stanislaus on their own site...and believe me, it was bad enough! Sad about that beautiful oak that had withstood so much history in one of the pics that just is no more!

A2K

Unfortunately that seems to be the "norm" around here now. It is just so surreal.

[wxman57]

A2K, I went into Google Earth and zoomed in on the Michoud Entergy power station near the Paris Road Bridge for a presentation I'm making in Tulane next Thursday morning.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Michoud1.jpg

Thanks for the pic. And good luck in the speak at Tulane. I have the daughter of a very good friend graduating from there. Here graduation party is the night before our big meetup in New Orleans. Haps she'll be in your audience, don't know where you'll make it; but I'll be checking with her to find out. Good luck!

A2K

The hurricane seminar is free for anyone associated with Tulane to attend. Don't know where It'l be on campus, though. We'll have some customers and prospective customers attending as well. The agenda will be a review of the 2005 season, a look at the deficiencies of the Saffir-Simpson scale and a look at a new scale based upon both size and max winds. Last talk will be an outlook for 2006 and beyond.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Labor Day 1935 -- Reports on the ground put the surge around 18' max

I was wondering about that storm and why it's surge hadn't been on the list, if I remember correctly. It certainly should've been there.

And I well remember Betsy with that crazy loop-de-loop path it took.. wild!

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

a look at the deficiencies of the Saffir-Simpson scale and a look at a new scale based upon both size and max winds.

Now that's the part I'd be interested in. I'll have to ask her if she's gonna be in the neighborhood Thursday.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Odd, I found this image, one of the earliest available of weather radar hurricane images --of Audrey, which remains to this day the earliest forming Category 4 (and on the high end of that) from June of 1957. Not the best quality; but not bad considering it's nearly half a century back. I didn't realize it had such a large eye. Now if only we could find a similar map with the boundaries drawn in for Carla--I'd really like to see that one as none of the previous images are really that good--and this one was taken four years earlier.



Doubtless her much smaller size is the reason her surge wasn't nearly as high as Rita's even though she came in at a greater intensity.

A2K

[wxman57]

Odd, I found this image, one of the earliest available of weather radar hurricane images --of Audrey, which remains to this day the earliest forming Category 4 (and on the high end of that) from June of 1957. Not the best quality; but not bad considering it's nearly half a century back. I didn't realize it had such a large eye. Now if only we could find a similar map with the boundaries drawn in for Carla--I'd really like to see that one as none of the previous images are really that good--and this one was taken four years earlier.



Doubtless her much smaller size is the reason her surge wasn't nearly as high as Rita's even though she came in at a greater intensity.

A2K

The large eye suggests that Audrey was in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle at the time of the radar image.

[BiloxiBacon]

Also note the dry air entrainment into Audrey as the south eyewall appears to be erroding. This phenomena has been observed in most all NGOM landfalling majors. Carla likely suffered the same fate as she moved into the Texas gulf coast.

PhotoPete

[Aslkahuna]

I read about the 1944 hurricane in Ivan Tannehill's book many years ago along with the narrative of the 1938 Long Island Express which gives the 186 mph gust observation at Blue Hill. There is some confusion about the 1944 hurricane as the track data I've seen shows only the pressure recorded at Hatteras whereas the storm was extremely intense while offshore (which is why it got it's title). The recon into the storm was NOT accidental since they began to fly recon into hurricanes and typhoons in the latter part of WWII after Duckworth proved that it could be done in 1943. Incidentally, ALL US Military Aircraft were either Army or Navy since the USAF did not come into existence until 1947. The 1944 storm was an offshore disaster since wartime restrictions prevented the warning of maritime traffic. The observers used state of sea to estimate winds and based upon that estimated hurricane force winds out a bit further than Carla. The storm had weakened by the time it hit New England but it still was a nasty strom there despite the fact the New England was for the most part west of the eye. I'll have to check later but I think the 1944 storm is also mentioned in the book by Bob Sheets.

Steve

[Pearl River]

BiloxiBacon wrote

Also note the dry air entrainment into Audrey as the south eyewall appears to be erroding. This phenomena has been observed in most all NGOM landfalling majors. Carla likely suffered the same fate as she moved into the Texas gulf coast.

PhotoPete

That could also have been a radar attenuation problem.

[Derek Ortt]

I believe that Audrey was not a cat 4 at landfall.

The HURDAT database is nearly worthless from that time, for storms that have not been reanalyzed. The standard procedure at the time was to assume that the 850mb winds, were the recon flew, we the same as the surface winds, when we know now that a reduction factor of .8 is required to get the surface winds. This is how Ethel was assessed as a cat 5, when the reanalysis likely will drop it to a borderline cat 3/4.

If the flight level winds were 120KT at 850mb, then the surface winds in Audrey were closer to 95-100KT, similar to Rita (I wish I had known this so I would not have cited Audrey as the worst NGOM hurricane in recent memory so many times, only to see marginal 3's cause the destruction that they did)

[Audrey2Katrina]

I believe that Audrey was not a cat 4 at landfall.

Well, I certainly respect your view on the matter, and likewise we're all entitled our opinions, and they vary widely on just about every controversy--even among pro-mets. But until some fairly sound data beyond hindsight application of an algorithm that for all it's acceptance is by no means infallible, I will believe almost ALL the historical accounts which show it was not only a 4, but a fairly strong one with wind speeds at approx. 144 mph. It's kind of difficult to ascertain with any certainty what storms of the past may have been as actual data (especially of both barometric pressure and wind speeds) become less and less reliable as one goes back further in time; hence beyond speculation, there just is no way to prove it one way or the other.

I do know that official NWS advisories show the following:

Name:AUDREY/Date:1957/6/27/0600Z/Latitude:27.9/Longitude:-93.8/Wind:133mph (115 knots) /Central Pressure:999/Category:Hurricane - Category 4
Name:AUDREY/Date:1957/6/27/1200Z/Latitude:29.3/Longitude:-93.8/Wind:144mph (125 knots) /Central Pressure:946/Category:Hurricane - Category 4 **approx. 20 nm from Landfall

She was clearly actually strengthening as she moved in.

with the annotation:
All information from the official hurricane advisories.

Additionally, from a NOAA site, the following is noted about Audrey:

Highest winds were reported to 96 m.p.h. at the NWS site with reports up to 105 m.p.h. in Lake Charles. An unofficial report of 180 m.p.h. winds was received from an oil rig, however this could have been associated with a severe thunderstorm embedded within Audrey's eye wall. Oil company tenders reported 150 m.p.h. winds which, although they are unofficial, are believed to be reasonably accurate.
And surge data isn't nearly as accurate as it is today; but we do know beyond doubt that Audrey's storm surge pushed in 25 MILES. I dunno--maybe a "marginal 3" could do all that; but unless/until shown otherwise, I'll go with the official records.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

I would also like to add that while I know that you feel strongly about the .8 as opposed to the .9 (as was applied with Katrina), that the NWS itself states that this application is also dependent upon the broad swath of wind field, hence a much broader pressure gradient. Audrey was by no measure as enormous in its wind field as was Katrina, and that Audrey's gradient might very well have stood up to the .9 algorithm. JMO, with all due respect.

A2K

[Jim Cantore]

I believe that Audrey was not a cat 4 at landfall.

Well, I certainly respect your view on the matter, and likewise we're all entitled our opinions, and they vary widely on just about every controversy--even among pro-mets. But until some fairly sound data beyond hindsight application of an algorithm that for all it's acceptance is by no means infallible, I will believe almost ALL the historical accounts which show it was not only a 4, but a fairly strong one with wind speeds at approx. 144 mph. It's kind of difficult to ascertain with any certainty what storms of the past may have been as actual data (especially of both barometric pressure and wind speeds) become less and less reliable as one goes back further in time; hence beyond speculation, there just is no way to prove it one way or the other.

I do know that official NWS advisories show the following:

Name:AUDREY/Date:1957/6/27/0600Z/Latitude:27.9/Longitude:-93.8/Wind:133mph (115 knots) /Central Pressure:0/Category:Hurricane - Category 4
Name:AUDREY/Date:1957/6/27/1200Z/Latitude:29.3/Longitude:-93.8/Wind:144mph (125 knots) /Central Pressure:946/Category:Hurricane - Category 4 **approx. 20 nm from Landfall

She was clearly actually strengthening as she moved in.

with the annotation:
All information from the official hurricane advisories.

Additionally, from a NOAA site, the following is noted about Audrey:

Highest winds were reported to 96 m.p.h. at the NWS site with reports up to 105 m.p.h. in Lake Charles. An unofficial report of 180 m.p.h. winds was received from an oil rig, however this could have been associated with a severe thunderstorm embedded within Audrey's eye wall. Oil company tenders reported 150 m.p.h. winds which, although they are unofficial, are believed to be reasonably accurate.
And surge data isn't nearly as accurate as it is today; but we do know beyond doubt that Audrey's storm surge pushed in 25 MILES. I dunno--maybe a "marginal 3" could do all that; but unless/until shown otherwise, I'll go with the official records.

A2K

she wasnt strengthening, her pressure rose by 946mb before landfall

[Audrey2Katrina]

she wasnt strengthening, her pressure rose by 946mb before landfall

ROFL... You noticed that!!! Well, I simply copied it as it was typed. Dunno much about the records kept back then; but it's just possible they didn't have a pressure reading for that particular advisory... but it DOES make for a noteworthy conversation piece doesn't it?

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Okay... I went back to verify, and I dunno, that was probably a typo from the site I found the data on; they probably saw it as 1000; but the advisory from 6 GMT I have found from the wunderground shows it at 999 on that reading... so I'm going to go back and edit that as it DOES look kind'a ridiculous.

Also did note that she did deteriorate very rapidly as soon as she came ashore. Strange storm in a lot of ways!

A2K

[Derek Ortt]

the .9 is ONLY VALID for 700mb. .8 is the used reduction factor at 850mb, the level where recon flew at the time. I refer you to Franlin et al. (2003) as this is discussed there. Even a .9, assuming they derived the surface winds the way I suspect, would yield a category 3.

Also, I have made a pressure to wind curve for the NGOM using data from 1995 to the current, and to get Audrey's wind speed, you need Camielle, a 909mb pressure. recent hurricanes hitting the same area suggest that the winds also likely were of marginal cat 3 status.

The lesson of Audrey and Rita is it does not take a cat 4 to devastate an area. A marginal 3 is still a major hurricane