Highest storm surge in US history

[Audrey2Katrina]

.8 is the used reduction factor at 850mb, the level where recon flew at the time.

I'm not disputing that at all, as I don't have all the records at my disposal that you obviously have. For whatever it's worth I did find some data on the projected paths of the storm using a lot of those pressure curves...had to do mostly with tracking the storm from the AMS site. For some reason, the link won't take, so you'll have to cut and paste it, but here it is:

http://ams.allenpress.com/pdfserv/10.11 ... -0469(1961)018%3C0127:TTOHAB%3E2.0.CO%3B2

I'm not sure but perhaps it being a pdf file has something to do with it. Anyway: This report's been around for over 40 years, and granted it deals with tracking patterns more than anything else, still a lot of pressure data is there and no one challenging the status of Audrey as a bona-fide 4 as yet. This may change; but as stated earlier, until I see something more than an algorithm or someone's chart, I'll go with what the vast majority of reporting data seem to cite. Do you believe all those wind reports to have been in error as well? (Referencing the oil tenders that recorded winds of 150-180). At any rate, this is another situation where we'll just have to agree to disagree.

The lesson of Audrey and Rita is it does not take a cat 4 to devastate an area. A marginal 3 is still a major hurricane

On THAT we are in complete agreement.

A2K

[Jim Cantore]

Okay... I went back to verify, and I dunno, that was probably a typo from the site I found the data on; they probably saw it as 1000; but the advisory from 6 GMT I have found from the wunderground shows it at 999 on that reading... so I'm going to go back and edit that as it DOES look kind'a ridiculous.

Also did note that she did deteriorate very rapidly as soon as she came ashore. Strange storm in a lot of ways!

A2K

I think it was somewhere in the 950s, I'd just put N/A

[dwsqos2]

For what its worth, according to the Monthly Weather Review article
"The Hurricane Season of 1957," observations in hurricane AUDREY were sparse.
In fact, according to the article, the last "observation
of central pressure prior to the landfall of the storm was that by the Tanker
Tillamook near latitude 28.7N., and longitude 94.0W. from 0925 to
1025 GMT June 27. The minimum pressure observed was 969 mb"
(Moore et al., 1957).

Additionally, according to the article, many of the parameters of AUDREY
were estimated. Apparently, the original minimum sea level pressure
of AUDREY was estimated to be 938 mb; later this
value was revised to 946 mb, due apparently to Hudson's research. The article
also makes considerable mention of AUDREY's maximum "winds."
Many of these extreme values were also estimates, and the article
does not seem to distinguish between sustained winds and gusts.

To write platitudinously, one article does not a science
make; however, given the ubiquitous estimate and limited observation,
the official reanalysis of hurricane AUDREY will be quite interesting.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/1957.pdf

Now, as a aside, both the "Last Island" Hurricane of 1856
and the "Indianola" Hurricane of 1886 were mentioned
several times in reference to potentially extreme storm tide values.
It worthwhile to note that the Re-Analysis Project gives 11-12' as the
extreme value of the "Last Island" Hurricane citing the values found in
David Ludlum's 1963 book Early American Hurricanes. For the "Indianola"
Hurricane, the Re-Analysis Project gives 15' as the extreme value, due
to Roth's 1997 research.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_51-60.html

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/metadata_81-90.html

[Audrey2Katrina]

the official reanalysis of hurricane AUDREY will be quite interesting.

Indeed it will. And just for those who might not care to download all of that 14MB document, these are some of the notes I took on this assessment of Audrey.

..."Indications are that the ship [The Tillamook--my insertion] was in the western portion of the eye and that the pressure observed was not the absolute minimum in the center at that time."

..."there is no doubt that there was considerable deepening in the five hours between time of the observation of the Tillamook and landfall. The exact minimum pressure as the center reached the coast has not been determined."

..."However, a minimum pressure of 938 mb. as computed from the formula, seems consistent with reports of wind, storm surge, and damage.’"

..."An oil rig reported winds up to 180 m. p. h. and a pressure of 925 mb. (It is not known whether this was a sustained wind or a gust, or whether it was measured or estimated.) Four sea tenders of the Continental Oil Company lost their anchors and were adrift in the hurricane just a short distance southeast of the center. The anemometers with which these tenders were equipped (not calibrated following the hurricane), all indicated winds in excess of 100 m. p. h. The three nearest the center indicated winds of 140 to 150 m. p. h. (These were peak gusts rather than sustained speeds and were read by eye from the anemometer dial indicators. The anemometers were 65 ft. above water.)"

I included a lot in the above for proper "contextual" validity, lest I be accused of selectively quoting.

..."If this formula is applied, using the central pressure now believed to have existed in Audrey, the indicated maximum wind is about 150 m. p. h. While this is in agreement with several unofficial reports of extreme winds, the exact speed which occurred must remain in doubt."

To be honest one can get quite mired in a lot of the technical jargon and formulae applied to make some of these "estimations"... but at least one thing is certain about Audrey as far as I am concerned.. and that is we'll never be "certain."

All models, algorithms, and paradigms notwithstanding.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

I did find a place for a quicker download of the document that was several pages smaller, just in case anyone wants to take a quick look-see... hope this works!

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/085/mwr-085-12-0401.pdf

At least it downloaded a lot quicker for me!

A2K

[Derek Ortt]

the oil rig winds were not at 10m, they are typically near 100m, so a reduction of .8-.9 is required there as well due to boundayr layer friction

[Lindaloo]

I believe that Audrey was not a cat 4 at landfall

Why? Because it did not hit Miami? j/k

[Derek Ortt]

nah,

there are many Miami landfalls that I want to knock down several categories as well (David for one... a spread out 980mb hurricane likely was not a cat 2). Even Katrina probably should be 65KT, not 70KT

[Audrey2Katrina]

I believe that Audrey was not a cat 4 at landfall

Why? Because it did not hit Miami? j/k

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

All kidding aside, I honestly DO respect the differing viewpoints; and some are well founded; however I think Audrey will stand the test... I guess we'll have to wait and see.

A2K

[Derek Ortt]

and I dont expect it to retain cat 4 status, primarily due to the recent string of NGOM marginal 3's with similar pressures

It is important to determine if Audrey was really a low end 3 at landfall... only a few years too late. Would have been great to have known this to have been able to highlight just how dangerous these last few terrible storms were, instead of saying similar to Audreywhen a cat 4, saying much worse than Audrey would have really highlighted their danger

[weatherwindow]

Like to bring up two other storms again:
BETSY 65 -- Landfall directly over my location in Key Largo (before my time). I've found little documentation of surge height, so much of the coverage is of the New Orleans landfall later. Houses built before 1965 have flood marks about 7' above MSL (could be Donna or Betsy water mark). Worst flooding was likely north Key Largo, Elliott Key, Card Sound and south Biscayne Bay on the right side. I have also heard eye witness reports of the wind emptying waters of the sounds and Florida Bay on the back of Key Largo, with bayside flooding caused when the water returned in a rush. No confirmation of that.

Labor Day 1935 -- Reports on the ground put the surge around 18' max based on it reaching the top of the railroad grade at the south end of Long Key near the Long Key Fishing Camp, to the right of the center, I believe.
.
The hurricane had incredible max winds and low pressure, and I understand it was probably one of the smallest Cat 5s, Andrew-like but smaller still (and therefore a very tight gradient). Flooding appears to have been worst in Islamorada, on the right of the eye. I haven't seen flood heights recorded for Key Largo farther north (25 miles) or from Conch Key (landfall I believe). I'd really like to know whether there was a surge from the bayside from the left-front quadrant equivalent to the right-side, oceanside surge, and how far the surge extended on the right (northeast). From the track, it looks as if the landfall angle was bad, heading west-northwest at islands aligned south-southeast. There are large channels to funnel the surge between Lower Matecumbe and Long Key and lower islands, while Plantation Key and Key Largo are long and wider barriers.

One account (the weather observer at the LKFC) also suggests the surge receded significantly during eye passage, but backside winds brought a second oceanside surge (or a bayside surge?).

...yes, according to duane, the cooperative observer, the surge on the bay(north) side of long key also approached the top of the railroad grade, approximately 16', prior the the passage of the eye......rich