TD#1 Advisories

[cycloneye]

Let's wait for the official word.

[P.K.]

This confirms it.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1300Z SAT JUN 10 2006

AT 1300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)

PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)

CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)

BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)

HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

HARTFORD CO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)

MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)

NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)

TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)

ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)

BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)

DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)

ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)

WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)

OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10)

NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9)

RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10)

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)

CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 5(20)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 4(19)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)

COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)

CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 2(21)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)

ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)

AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 1(16)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) 1(24)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)

JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 9(30) 1(31)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 8(32) X(32)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20(24) 6(30) X(30)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) X(25)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) X(20)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) 1(17)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) 1(13)

MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)

KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11)

MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 2(18) 1(19)
MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 2(22) X(22)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 16(27) 3(30) X(30)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)

TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 22(31) 3(34) 1(35)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11)

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 23(32) 4(36) X(36)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) 4(28) X(28)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 17(26) 4(30) X(30)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 18(32) 3(35) X(35)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 18(38) 2(40) X(40)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 16(28) 2(30) X(30)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) 1(14)
COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10)
MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)

PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 11(32) 1(33) 1(34)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)

MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10)

GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 5(22) 1(23) X(23)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34 27 5(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)

HAVANA 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)

ISLE OF PINES 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT

12 220N 857W 34 27 14(41) 1(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
12 220N 857W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
12 220N 857W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

24 239N 867W 34 1 37(38) 12(50) 3(53) X(53) 1(54) X(54)
24 239N 867W 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
24 239N 867W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

36 256N 869W 34 X 12(12) 32(44) 8(52) 3(55) X(55) 1(56)
36 256N 869W 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
36 256N 869W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

48 272N 861W 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 22(42) 8(50) 1(51) X(51)
48 272N 861W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17)
48 272N 861W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)


72 295N 825W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 23(29) 4(33) 1(34)
72 295N 825W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)
72 295N 825W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)


96 340N 770W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 4(20)
96 340N 770W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
96 340N 770W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)


120 420N 670W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
120 420N 670W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
120 420N 670W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 50 50 45 45
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)


FORECASTER BEVEN


$$

[cycloneye]

WTNT21 KNHC 101247
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1300Z SAT JUN 10 2006

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 85.3W AT 10/1300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 85.3W AT 10/1300Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 85.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 85.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.9N 86.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.6N 86.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.2N 86.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.0N 77.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 42.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 85.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

[NYCHurr06]

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
800 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2006 SEASON FORMS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...WESTERN FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...21.1 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[drezee]

336
WTNT41 KNHC 101253
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
800 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND RADAR DATA FROM
WESTERN CUBA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED TO
THE WEST OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE AREA WITH TOPS TO -85C. SATELLITE
AND RADAR DATA SHOW AT LEAST TWO SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY CENTERS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION...WITH THE ADVISORY POSITION
BEING THAT OF THE OVERALL MEAN CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 340/10. THE DEPRESSION
IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A COL
AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
SEVERAL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TROUGH...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND STALLS THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF
MODELS SPLIT THE DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS...WHILE THE UKMET
TURNS IT WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE
RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND BRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREATER THAN NORMAL
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME EMBEDDED
IN MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE U. S.
TROUGH AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE INTENSITY TO REACH 50 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL. IF THE CYCLONE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST
TRACK...INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1300Z 21.1N 85.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 22.0N 85.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 23.9N 86.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 25.6N 86.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 27.2N 86.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 29.5N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/0600Z 34.0N 77.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 15/0600Z 42.0N 67.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$

[beachbum_al]

So now we have a TD. When do you think it will be named?

I think we are in for a long weekend of watching.

Dr. Lyons was just on and he said that the Center of Circulation was between the Yucatan and Cuba (I am assuming the straight) and it would move North for a while and then take a turn toward FL. This was on the Tropical Update on the TWC at 7:50am.

I tried to find it on the TWC website but didn't have much luck. Sorry.

[beachbum_al]

Yes the season has begun and so has my headache. So off to find out where this storm will head.

[Dionne]

Looks like it could make tropical storm status later today. From the satellite view it appears the cloud tops really took off overnight. The water temps at 42056 and 42057 are recording low to mid 80's F. Is this warm enough to fuel a hurricane?

Little discovery early this morning......I am prepared physically for this season....but not emotionally.

[canegrl04]

Just 5mph away from Alberto.We will probablt see him this afternoon

[Extremeweatherguy]

This paragraph of the discussion worries me:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 340/10. THE DEPRESSION
IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A COL
AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
SEVERAL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TROUGH...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND STALLS THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF
MODELS SPLIT THE DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS...WHILE THE UKMET
TURNS IT WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE
RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND BRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREATER THAN NORMAL
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.

[GalvestonDuck]

This paragraph of the discussion worries me:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 340/10. THE DEPRESSION
IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A COL
AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS
SEVERAL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TROUGH...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND STALLS THE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF
MODELS SPLIT THE DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS...WHILE THE UKMET
TURNS IT WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE
RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND BRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREATER THAN NORMAL
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.

"Towards Texas" but they don't say what part. My best amateur guess would be that they mean southern TX since there's a high sitting over most of the state (and our area of the state, more importantly), so there's probably little reason for concern. Then again, you should never be completely off guard with these things. But I think we're okay on this one.

[AZS]

Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on June 10, 2006



...Depression poorly organized but producing heavy rainfall...
Tropical storm warnings are recommended for the Cuban provinces of
Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

Interests elsewhere in the eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1000 am CDT...1500z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression One was estimated near latitude 21.5 north...longitude
85.6 west or about 45 miles... 75 km...west-southwest of Cabo San
Antonio on the western tip of Cuba.

The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph...
19 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next 24 hours. This motion should bring the center of the
depression into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. An
Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the depression this afternoon.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

At this time...the main threat from the depression is heavy
rainfall. The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over the western half of
Cuba...with isolated totals of 30 inches over the higher terrain.
This could cause devastating flash floods and mud slides. Grand
Cayman island has reported 22.72 inches of rain during the past 24
hours... and additional rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is possible over
the Cayman Islands. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are possible
over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. There is
also the potential for heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches possible
over the Florida Keys and western Florida from Sunday into Monday.
Repeating the 1000 am CDT position...21.5 N...85.6 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35
mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 100 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 400
PM CDT.

Forecaster Knabb

[cycloneye]

WTNT21 KNHC 101445
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1500Z SAT JUN 10 2006

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 85.6W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 85.6W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.9N 86.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.7N 86.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.8N 85.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.0N 81.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 36.5N 74.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 45.0N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 85.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

[cycloneye]

[brunota2003]

the only significant new data to come in since the special advisory
was a Quikscat overpass at about 1115z. As is often the case for
systems with 30-35 kt winds... it is highly likely that Quikscat
greatly overestimated the wind speeds in rain-contaminated areas in
the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Outside of the rain
areas... the retrieved winds were as strong as 25-30 kt... so
holding the estimate for the maximum winds at 30 kt seems
reasonable.

The depression remains poorly organized with several small
circulations rotating about a mean center. The initial motion
estimate is still 340/10 but remains quite uncertain. The
depression is being steered in between the upper-level low over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the subtropical ridge centered over
the western Atlantic. Lacking any new track guidance... the
scenarios painted in the previous advisory all remain
possibilities. The GFS and GFDL recurve the cyclone northeastward
around the subtropical ridge and ahead of the next trough over the
eastern United States. The Canadian models stalls the system over
the northern Gulf of Mexico... and the UKMET turns it westward
toward Texas. Meanwhile the NOGAPS and ECMWF models split the
depression into multiple lows... with the larger one moving
northeastward along the lines of the GFS and GFDL tracks. The
official forecast will treat this as a single recurving system that
should become extratropical along the East Coast of the United
States. As stated previously... there is a greater than average
amount of uncertainty in this track forecast.

Moderate to strong upper-level westerlies are forecast by all the
dynamical models to dominate over the official forecast track
beyond about 36 hours. This should produce plenty of wind shear to
limit the strength of this system... and intensification into a
hurricane appears unlikely in that environment. The official
intensity forecast again peaks at 50 kt before landfall in the
northeastern Gulf... generally in between the GFDL and SHIPS
solutions.

Forecaster Knabb


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 10/1500z 21.5n 85.6w 30 kt
12hr VT 11/0000z 22.9n 86.1w 40 kt
24hr VT 11/1200z 24.7n 86.8w 45 kt
36hr VT 12/0000z 26.5n 86.5w 50 kt
48hr VT 12/1200z 27.8n 85.2w 50 kt
72hr VT 13/1200z 31.0n 81.0w 45 kt...becoming extratropical
96hr VT 14/1200z 36.5n 74.0w 45 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 15/1200z 45.0n 63.0w 45 kt...extratropical


$$

[Recurve]

Latest discussion full headers if anyone missed it:

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEW DATA TO COME IN SINCE THE SPECIAL ADVISORY
WAS A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 1115Z. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR
SYSTEMS WITH 30-35 KT WINDS... IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT QUIKSCAT
GREATLY OVERESTIMATED THE WIND SPEEDS IN RAIN-CONTAMINATED AREAS IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN
AREAS... THE RETRIEVED WINDS WERE AS STRONG AS 25-30 KT... SO
HOLDING THE ESTIMATE FOR THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 KT SEEMS
REASONABLE.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SEVERAL SMALL
CIRCULATIONS ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS STILL 340/10 BUT REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE
DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LACKING ANY NEW TRACK GUIDANCE... THE
SCENARIOS PAINTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ALL REMAIN
POSSIBILITIES. THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CANADIAN MODELS STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE UKMET TURNS IT WESTWARD
TOWARD TEXAS. MEANWHILE THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS SPLIT THE
DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS... WITH THE LARGER ONE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS AND GFDL TRACKS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TREAT THIS AS A SINGLE RECURVING SYSTEM THAT
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY... THERE IS A GREATER THAN AVERAGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DOMINATE OVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR TO
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM... AND INTENSIFICATION INTO A
HURRICANE APPEARS UNLIKELY IN THAT ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN PEAKS AT 50 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF... GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS
SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 21.5N 85.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 22.9N 86.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 24.7N 86.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 27.8N 85.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 31.0N 81.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 14/1200Z 36.5N 74.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 15/1200Z 45.0N 63.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


$$
NNNN

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[WXBUFFJIM]

Given the presence of vertical shear, one has to assume this system will be mainly lopsided for the majority of it's life with perhaps a gradual strengthening to a strong tropical storm, but probably not much stronger. If this were to impact the Florida Peninsula or for that matter the panhandle, these are regions that are drought stricken and could use the rainfall. Sustained winds of 50-55 knots seems possible at landfall. But it doesn't look much stronger than that and even 50-55 knots maybe a bit generous if this strong shear continues. The forecast track while uncertain, the sunshine state will be impacted anyway given that the convection is situated mainly north and east of the center over a rather broad area. So it's best not to focus on the center of this system, but instead focus on where you're situated relative to the center. If you're northeast of the center, chances are you'll see a broad area of much needed drought busting rains, much like we're expecting on the Florida Peninsula during the next 24-48 hours.

So again I see this as a lopsided storm and not a Hurricane Wilma type system. But still we could face lots of rain and gusty winds in this scenario and maybe a tornado threat during the next 24-48 hours as this system makes it's approach on the sunshine state.

Will see what hurricane hunters say this afternoon. Strong vertical shear is definitely doing a number on this system in terms of the intensification process and a lopsided system is definitely in the works. But there is at least alittle silver lining to all of this is you like drought busting rains versus wildfires and drought.

Jim

[brunota2003]

I wonder if they are going to make us wait for a few minutes and have recon send in the report (yes they have done that...last year we had to wait 20 extra minutes for the reports) or are they just going to send it out?

[CrazyC83]

I think they will hold it as a TD for the advisory, then if found to be a TS I think they will issue a special advisory at 2 PM CDT (3 PM EDT).

[cycloneye]

721
WTNT31 KNHC 101756
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

...DEPRESSION DUMPING HEAVY RAINFALL IN WESTERN CUBA...
...OUTER RAINBANDS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE
85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75 KM...WEST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO ON
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...
14 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...21.7 N...85.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB