Now, part of me is saying that out of frustration with her recent developments, but I have reasoned it out in my head and am at least 50% convinced that Claudette will not become a hurricane. There is persistent shear to the west and northwest of Claudette, and she has been close enough to the shear for several days, which is inhibiting development, keeping her from becoming a cane. Evidence of this shear is the slightly exposed center moving west, to the SW of the main convection. The NHC has been forecasting this to weaken, but I haven't seen it yet. As long as our system remains weak (which I think it will), don't expect it to move north. It should continue generally west, drift a little, and maybe even dip slightly WSW in the coming days. The low level steering flow suggests that. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
I hope I'm wrong.
I'm starting to doubt Claudette will become a hurricane.
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- cycloneye
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A la Isidore again ?
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- cycloneye
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Well HD in your favor is that NHC has downgraded that intensity forecast to maybe 1 advisory before landfall
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