Houston's in the CLEAR

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cycloneye
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#21 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:05 pm

Ticka still you are not in the clear until there is a definitive move by Claudette one way or another but it is too early to say all is clear even if the local mets say that.
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#22 Postby southerngale » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:12 pm

Well, according to the NHC, extreme Southeast Texas and eastward has no possibility of seeing Claudette. Either they are taking a risk or they are absolutely certain.

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#23 Postby wx247 » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:15 pm

That is a forecast track. That is the key to remember. How many times have you been expecting a major snow, severe weather event, or a dry weekend 3 to 5 days out only for it to track significantly farther nort or south of you? The same is true with tropical systems. Nothing is certain until it is makes a move.
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#24 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:16 pm

Kelly they are banking on that left turn that is on that grafic that you posted but many things can happen that can change that projection from NHC.
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#25 Postby wrkh99 » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:18 pm

I don't buy the left turn
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#26 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:30 pm

I don't buy the intial 2 PM position.
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#27 Postby Guest » Fri Jul 11, 2003 2:31 pm

LOL nelson - really?
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#28 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 11, 2003 2:39 pm

Nope. The center is elongating. If it can elongate to teh NE...then it has a chance to lower teh gradient winds near that mid level circ near 22.7 / 87.5. That is about the only chance she has now...to follow that convection. I think she will. However, that will throw out the turn to the west. The convection is moving north and it would take a lot to stop it and turn it if it is moving north. It is not moving NW at 12...that's for sure.
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#29 Postby Colin » Fri Jul 11, 2003 3:04 pm

wx247 wrote:That is a forecast track. That is the key to remember. How many times have you been expecting a major snow, severe weather event, or a dry weekend 3 to 5 days out only for it to track significantly farther nort or south of you? The same is true with tropical systems. Nothing is certain until it is makes a move.


Oh...I hate that! When you're expected to get 12-18" snow and then it passes to the south of you with 2-4"... :roll: We have to remember that though. It could hit LA, or FL for all we know. I don't buy the leftward turn either. This is a LA storm, IMO, again.
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#30 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Jul 11, 2003 4:31 pm

Rainband wrote:Just read an interesting post at Gopbi..could be bs..if not expect a shift in models to the right...This storm is gonna give me an ulcer!! :o


Ulcers?? At least yo have hair left!!! I've already pulled all of mine out!!!!Danged Claudette!!!! AAAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!! AND AS THY SAY IT AIN'T OVER TILL THE FAT LADY SINGS!! I just wish she would quit warbling and start singing!!!!!!! :roll: :o :? :o :roll: :roll: :o :?

As much as I'd like to sound an all clear for Houston Ticka I can't yet. To much still up in the air!! The longer she stays weak though the clearer we get, imo.
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#31 Postby Pebbles » Fri Jul 11, 2003 4:35 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
Rainband wrote:Just read an interesting post at Gopbi..could be bs..if not expect a shift in models to the right...This storm is gonna give me an ulcer!! :o


UIlcers?? At least yo have hair left!!! I've already pulled all of mine out!!!!Danged Claudette!!!! AAAAAARRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!! AND AS THY SAY IT AIN'T OVER TILL THE FAT LADY SINGS!! I just wish she would quit warbling and start singing!!!!!!! :roll: :o :? :o :roll: :roll: :o :?


HEY WHO YOU CALLING FAT....I pregnant not fat...*winks cause she's jokin* you keep it up and i'm gonna give you the laundry Jonathan hasn't finished yet!
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#32 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Jul 11, 2003 4:37 pm

I've been real busy at work today so I haven't looked at too much but could there be a new center forming to the north east of yuc?
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#33 Postby ColdFront77 » Fri Jul 11, 2003 6:33 pm

Tropical cyclones are even more unpredictable than major snowstorms and severe weather event.
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