Will Claudette's center reform?

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MGC
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Will Claudette's center reform?

#1 Postby MGC » Fri Jul 11, 2003 12:52 pm

Claudette looks pretty disorganized right now. The recon has been having a hard time finding a closed circulation. Could it be that they are looking in the wrong place and that the center is reforming closer to the convection to the NE?............MGC
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#2 Postby Colin » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:32 pm

It could be...you can't really tell. Who knows where the center will reform... LOL...
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#3 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 11, 2003 1:39 pm

Don't think so. There are strong ESE and SE winds in that area. You can't reform a center in an area with strong gradient flow...to much horizontal shear. You have to have light winds under convection to do it and right now the winds are in the 30-45 kt range.

The center is over land drifting sw. Do a high res loop of about 10 images from the GHCC.
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#4 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 11, 2003 2:03 pm

The center is really starting to elongate now. Latest vis loops show it stopping and trying to open up. Problem is the convection is moving away to the north and the tops are warming. The LLC may be trying to catch up with it. The dynamics are there is the pressure can fall enough to pull the center off the coast and move it north.

One thing for sure...this thing is going north if that happens.
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This is crazy

#5 Postby ChrisFSUWxStudent » Fri Jul 11, 2003 2:57 pm

Seems like the typical GOM storm now! You think it's going to do this, and then it turns around and does something else. I think it'll still move westward into NE Mex... another question mark is if she'll even survive! She looks as ragged as ever, her only hope to strenghten would be to try and "catch up" with the convection.
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#6 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 11, 2003 2:59 pm

What I was trying to remember was when was the last easy storm in teh gulf? I mean...it recurved on the south side of a high...no stalls...no elongated, broad centers.

Can't remember one off hand. Seems like they have all been squirly as of late.
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