Tropical Depression Bud (03E) in EPAC

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

This is from invest 99E.

[MGC]

Nothing on the NHC site ATT.....MGC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its about time!!!

[cycloneye]

Nothing on the NHC site ATT.....MGC

First advisory at 11 PM EDT or 8 PM PDT.

[MGC]

OK, thanks.....MGC

[Aquawind]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas14.png

Ohh Yeah..

[SouthFloridawx]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas14.png

Ohh Yeah..

Is that like the Koolaid Man?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Heck this would be a tropical storm any where in the Atlatnic. With quickscat like that 35 to 45 knots. Maybe a little rain got in but still. In very deep convection. If shear can lessen then we may have something.

[cheezyWXguy]

Thanks to Dane Cook I laff to myself a lot every time I see the Kool-Aid man...Oh Yeaahh!

[cycloneye]

WTPZ23 KNHC 110201
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
0300 UTC TUE JUL 11 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 110.6W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 110.6W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 110.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 12.8N 111.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 13.2N 113.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 13.6N 114.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.0N 115.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.8N 118.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 110.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART




WTPZ43 KNHC 110201
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
800 PM PDT MON JUL 10 2006

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT
625 NMI SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM THE TAFB.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO
THE NORTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE GLOBAL MODELS IS THAT THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED ALONG 25N LATITUDE WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION. THE SLOWER
THAN AVERAGE FORWARD SPEED OF ONLY 7-8 KT IS POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME
INTERACTION WITH A MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE...PROBABLY THE NEXT
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP...LOCATED ABOUT 900 NMI TO THE EAST.
THAT SYSTEM IS MOVING FASTER THAN TD-3E...SO THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION IMPARTED TO THE DEPRESSION IN 24-48
HOURS AS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN INDUCING WEAK NORTHERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES THAT
LOW HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME ELONGATED EAST-WEST...PRODUCING
NORTHWESTERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
DEPRESSION...THUS DECREASING THE SHEAR. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AT LEAST SLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL FORECAST WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 12.5N 110.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 12.8N 111.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 13.2N 113.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 13.6N 114.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 14.0N 115.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 14.8N 118.6W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 16.0N 124.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[MGC]

TD-3E is up on the NHC site......MGC

[Aquawind]

Is that like the Koolaid Man?

Cherry works for me. Ohh Yeah!

Looks like a cane is going to be a close call..

[SouthFloridawx]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/com ... 8/M38.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Are they watching another area infront of this new td?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... asin?large

[Cyclenall]

There is a 5% chance this could become a Category 4 or 5 hurricane in the next 72 hours. Not bad.

Chances of Tropical Depression 3-E becoming a:

Tropical Storm: 87%
Hurricane: 45%
Major Hurricane: 10%
Category 5 Hurricane: 1%

In my opinion only.

[CrazyC83]

My opinion on chances:

Tropical Storm - >95%
Hurricane - 70%
Major Hurricane - 40%
Category 4 Hurricane - 20%
Category 5 Hurricane - 5%

[senorpepr]

44% of all statistics are made up.

[Jim Cantore]

44% of all statistics are made up.

99% are wrong

[Cyclenall]

44% of all statistics are made up.

I thought the correct number was 67%?

[GeneratorPower]

Senorpepr, it's been a long time since I've seen you around. Have you been away, or just not posting in this particular Forum?