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The EPAC has been very active lately and is so as the wet phase of MJO is there now.Here is another invest for that basin.
Tropical Depression Emilia (06E) in EPAC=Last Advisory
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cycloneye
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Tropical Depression Emilia (06E) in EPAC=Last Advisory
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Jul 27, 2006 10:07 pm, edited 37 times in total.
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bombarderoazul
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cycloneye
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ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 440 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
From the 10:00 AM PDT TWO.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
From the 10:00 AM PDT TWO.
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HurricaneHunter914
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That future "wave" is in the same area 91E and 92E started out from. Possible 93E?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS AREA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.
Above is the 4:00 PM PDT TWO for 92E Invest.
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comment from the 10 AM PDT TWO
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
and the 16Z TWD
LOW PRES NEAR 10NW99W 1009 MB IS MOVING W 10 KT. CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. STRONGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE LOW CONFINED TO ALONG THE ITCZ
AXIS AS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
and the 16Z TWD
LOW PRES NEAR 10NW99W 1009 MB IS MOVING W 10 KT. CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. STRONGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE LOW CONFINED TO ALONG THE ITCZ
AXIS AS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
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cycloneye
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DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922006) ON 20060717 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060717 1800 060718 0600 060718 1800 060719 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.6N 100.2W 8.5N 102.0W 7.6N 103.6W 7.0N 105.1W
BAMM 9.6N 100.2W 8.7N 101.9W 8.1N 103.3W 7.8N 104.5W
LBAR 9.6N 100.2W 9.1N 101.3W 9.2N 102.6W 9.9N 104.0W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060719 1800 060720 1800 060721 1800 060722 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 6.9N 106.5W 6.6N 109.0W 5.8N 111.5W 5.7N 113.6W
BAMM 8.1N 105.5W 8.9N 107.0W 9.8N 108.5W 11.8N 110.1W
LBAR 10.9N 105.6W 13.4N 109.1W 14.5N 113.2W 15.5N 116.7W
SHIP 48KTS 59KTS 61KTS 59KTS
DSHP 48KTS 59KTS 61KTS 59KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.6N LONCUR = 100.2W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 99.3W DIRM12 = 260DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 97.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060717 1800 060718 0600 060718 1800 060719 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.6N 100.2W 8.5N 102.0W 7.6N 103.6W 7.0N 105.1W
BAMM 9.6N 100.2W 8.7N 101.9W 8.1N 103.3W 7.8N 104.5W
LBAR 9.6N 100.2W 9.1N 101.3W 9.2N 102.6W 9.9N 104.0W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060719 1800 060720 1800 060721 1800 060722 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 6.9N 106.5W 6.6N 109.0W 5.8N 111.5W 5.7N 113.6W
BAMM 8.1N 105.5W 8.9N 107.0W 9.8N 108.5W 11.8N 110.1W
LBAR 10.9N 105.6W 13.4N 109.1W 14.5N 113.2W 15.5N 116.7W
SHIP 48KTS 59KTS 61KTS 59KTS
DSHP 48KTS 59KTS 61KTS 59KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.6N LONCUR = 100.2W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 99.3W DIRM12 = 260DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 97.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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cycloneye
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AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
4:00 PM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook.
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
4:00 PM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook.
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Epsilon_Fan
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HurricaneHunter914
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It would be cool if Emilia strengthened just like her cousin Emily.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145888
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ABPZ20 KNHC 181032
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 815 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WITHIN THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 815 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WITHIN THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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16Z TWD
LOW 1008 MB NEAR 9N102W IS MOVING W 5 KT. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS
OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED
TO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE S SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING
NORTHERLY SHEAR AT THIS TIME WHICH IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
LOW 1008 MB NEAR 9N102W IS MOVING W 5 KT. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS
OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED
TO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE S SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING
NORTHERLY SHEAR AT THIS TIME WHICH IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
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cycloneye
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DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922006) ON 20060718 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060718 1800 060719 0600 060719 1800 060720 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.5N 102.2W 9.3N 103.5W 9.2N 104.4W 9.4N 105.4W
BAMM 9.5N 102.2W 9.7N 103.3W 9.8N 104.3W 10.0N 105.5W
LBAR 9.5N 102.2W 9.6N 103.3W 10.1N 104.6W 11.2N 106.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060720 1800 060721 1800 060722 1800 060723 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.5N 106.4W 9.5N 108.5W 10.2N 110.8W 11.2N 112.5W
BAMM 10.2N 106.9W 9.9N 109.7W 10.0N 111.8W 10.9N 112.5W
LBAR 11.9N 107.8W 13.4N 111.5W 14.6N 115.8W 16.3N 119.4W
SHIP 47KTS 60KTS 63KTS 61KTS
DSHP 47KTS 60KTS 63KTS 61KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 102.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 9.3N LONM12 = 101.1W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 100.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060718 1800 060719 0600 060719 1800 060720 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.5N 102.2W 9.3N 103.5W 9.2N 104.4W 9.4N 105.4W
BAMM 9.5N 102.2W 9.7N 103.3W 9.8N 104.3W 10.0N 105.5W
LBAR 9.5N 102.2W 9.6N 103.3W 10.1N 104.6W 11.2N 106.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060720 1800 060721 1800 060722 1800 060723 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.5N 106.4W 9.5N 108.5W 10.2N 110.8W 11.2N 112.5W
BAMM 10.2N 106.9W 9.9N 109.7W 10.0N 111.8W 10.9N 112.5W
LBAR 11.9N 107.8W 13.4N 111.5W 14.6N 115.8W 16.3N 119.4W
SHIP 47KTS 60KTS 63KTS 61KTS
DSHP 47KTS 60KTS 63KTS 61KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 102.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 9.3N LONM12 = 101.1W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 100.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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AnnularCane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2872
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
- Location: Wytheville, VA
clfenwi wrote:16Z TWD
LOW 1008 MB NEAR 9N102W IS MOVING W 5 KT. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS
OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED
TO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE S SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING
NORTHERLY SHEAR AT THIS TIME WHICH IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
Come on, honey. You're not going to let a little shear get in your way, are you?
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Epsilon_Fan
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