wxman57 wrote:Wthrman13 wrote:Regarding watching the buoy temperatures for evidence of tropical characteristics: folks should keep in mind that the *surface* temperatures remain relatively constant as one moves toward the center of a TC. The warm core really only becomes apparent above the surface, due to latent heat release in the updrafts, and, in the case that the TC has an eye, due to subsidence warming inside the eye. The reason the surface temperatures remain relatively constant at the surface is that the warming due to the heat flux off of the ocean surface is nearly balanced by the cooling due to the pressure drop as the air moves in toward the center of the TC (where the pressure is lower). It's the first leg of the heat engine (Carnot engine) cycle: isothermal expansion.
That's certainly true, the buoy observations of temperature can't tell us if the system was warm or cold core. However, the buoy can provide other clues as to the structure of the low center. The sharp pressure drop combined with a sharp rise in wind speed near the core is more representative of a warm-core low than a much larger cold-core low. Actually, this system does appear to have both tropical and subtropical characteristics. In my opinion, more tropical than subtropical. But I don't think it's even close to being extratropical (or was earlier today).
Unfortunately, I think this will be one of those forgotten systems at the end of the 2006 season. I say "unfortunately" because I think that we'll see a lot more significant storms in the next 2 months. Kind of like New Orleans not even discussing Cindy after Katrina hit. The east U.S. Coast still looks like a prime area for landfalls in August/September.
I'm still hoping for a 1-storm season, though (1.5 counting this unnamed storm)
Indeed, I agree about the pressure drop, etc. If I had to categorize it, I'd say it was a subtropical storm. The satellite presentation, especially the pattern of the upper-level outflow, seems to argue for a cold core aloft.
