Tropical or Not? We may have an Answer Yet...

[drezee]

Canada or Wonderful Canada has a buoy that seems to be directly in the path of this system.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44137


Ok what we are looking for is: (if we get a close pass)

1. A sharp pressure fall over a small perion of time and rapid rise thereafter

2. A rise in temperature near the core and as the immediate approaches

3. Sharp increase in wind near the core (i.e. not distributed like a extratropical system)

Let's see if we have a player...

[drezee]

Or will we test my conspiracy theory of when things like this pass a viable buoy...the obs for that time period somehow stop reporting...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears to have started becoming extratropical. So you would not get a very good simple of what it was this morning.

[drezee]

It appears to have started becoming extratropical. So you would not get a very good simple of what it was this morning.

AS good as we are going to get on this one...




Also, if it was at some point tropical. The fact that it seems to be transitioning and still has some tropical characteristics would make an interesting argument. The extra tropical transition is not instantaneous and hopefully we can get a glimpse...

[drezee]

So far so good, from 1900 to 2100:
Pressure is down 4 mb and winds have increased from 12 to 23 knots sustained.
AND MOST importantly...even though the sun angle is decreasing...the air temp is increasing...I would love to know the dew point...oh well
Same time yesterday the temperature was decreasing right now

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
44137 O 1700 42.26 -62.00 0 0 160 9.7 11.7 4.3 10 - - 30.05 -0.02 67.1 62.8
44137 O 1800 42.26 -62.00 0 0 130 7.8 9.7 4.6 8 - - 30.03 -0.03 66.4 62.6
44137 O 1900 42.26 -62.00 0 0 130 11.7 11.7 4.6 10 - - 30.02 -0.04 66.4 62.8
44137 O 2000 42.26 -62.00 0 0 100 15.5 17.5 4.6 9 - - 29.96 -0.09 66.7 62.8
44137 O 2100 42.26 -62.00 0 0 100 23.3 27.2 4.3 8 - - 29.90 -0.13 67.1 62.8

[SouthFloridawx]

That's a pretty quick pressure drop for that that area of low pressure.

[curtadams]

Canada or Wonderful Canada has a buoy that seems to be directly in the path of this system.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44137


Ok what we are looking for is: (if we get a close pass)

1. A sharp pressure fall over a small perion of time and rapid rise thereafter

2. A rise in temperature near the core and as the immediate approaches

3. Sharp increase in wind near the core (i.e. not distributed like a extratropical system)

Let's see if we have a player...

Good catch, but isn't the heat increase only at altitude?

[cpdaman]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44137

sustained winds up to 27 knots pressure fell .18 last hour to 29.80

hope those fisherman are prepared for a "no name warm core system with tropical storm winds"

[WindRunner]

New report should be in shortly . . . any guesses on how much of a pressure drop/wind change? I'm willing to go with 29.78 or so inHg and winds approaching 30kts . . .

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I hope so...Really I think this will be upgraded very very likely like tropical storm 28 was. That thing did not even look half as good.

[WindRunner]

Haha . . . didn't see the new data, I swear . . .

[Stormavoider]

I think "The Administration" took out this buoy to cover up for the NHC.

[Stormavoider]

Nevermind the new data is in.

[Stormavoider]

It looks you may have nailed it drezee.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=44137&meas=atmp&uom=E

[Derek Ortt]

but it is still associated with the front; thus, it is NOT a TC as one of the requirements is that the system is not attached to any frontal systems

[drezee]

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

[wxman57]

but it is still associated with the front; thus, it is NOT a TC as one of the requirements is that the system is not attached to any frontal systems

I plotted the 00Z surface analysis of the region. Southeast winds and dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s from Maine through Nova Scotia. Not much evidence of a cold front off the Nova Scotia coast. The structure of the low doesn't look frontal, either.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/98Lb.gif

The pressure at a nearby buoy dropped to 1001.2mb as the center passed to the west, with a sustained wind of 31.1 kts. Stronger winds probably passed west of the buoy.

I guess it'll all even out at the end of the season. This one will counter another storm that probably shouldn't have been named.

[drezee]

Let's get ready to RUMBLE!!!!!
The battle of the Pro Mets!!!!
Derek vs. Wxman57
Who will present the most compelling evidence....

Just kidding...

[brunota2003]

The HPC hasnt got rid of the front icon, meaning there still is a front there...aka no TC...Take the National Map from the NWS: http://nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.php there is your low, connected to a cold front...

[wxman57]

Let's get ready to RUMBLE!!!!!
The battle of the Pro Mets!!!!
Derek vs. Wxman57
Who will present the most compelling evidence....

Just kidding...

Derek is a friend of mine. We're debating whether or not the low is frontal. I have great respect for his opinion.