Tropical Depression Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok the old thread has reached 25 pages.

Link to the old thread:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=86898



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[Jim Cantore]

This is still a good 4-5 days off from Hawaii, I question if he'll make it.

[Derek Ortt]

It's less than 900 miles and will soon encounter more favorable conditions.

It almost certainly will make it, and I'd say the low end is about 40KT

[Jim Cantore]

It's less than 900 miles and will soon encounter more favorable conditions.

It almost certainly will make it, and I'd say the low end is about 40KT

Really? Do you think it will re-intensify a bit?

[tbstorm]

I have friends on Oahu, and I emailed them this morning about Daniel. They say they haven't heard anything about it on the local news there and were actually somewhat supprised that there was a tropical system out there.

Very interesting that this system may approach from the windward side, which could cause alot of flooding there. Though it is a small system so it would have to make more of a direct hit. The mountianous areas would see much higher winds though.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

...No way Daniel makes it to Hawaii as anything larger than a Depression. Daniel is already on his way out, and the next stretch of ocean is well known for being a graveyard of East Pacific long-trackers like Jova and Kenneth last year.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DANIEL (EP052006) ON 20060725 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060725 0000 060725 1200 060726 0000 060726 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.1N 141.9W 16.2N 143.3W 16.3N 144.7W 16.6N 146.1W
LBAR 16.1N 141.9W 15.8N 142.9W 16.0N 143.8W 16.2N 145.0W
SHIP 65KTS 47KTS 34KTS 26KTS
DSHP 65KTS 47KTS 34KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060727 0000 060728 0000 060729 0000 060730 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 147.7W 19.0N 151.9W 22.4N 156.6W 27.4N 161.1W
LBAR 16.8N 145.9W 18.3N 148.6W 20.6N 151.9W 22.6N 155.6W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 23KTS 24KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 23KTS 23KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.1N LONCUR = 141.9W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 140.4W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 138.0W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 65NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 65NM


00:00z run of the BAM models.Interesting that it is now moving WSW at 260 degrees instead of WNW.If that track continues it may pass south of Hilo.

[Derek Ortt]

and as I have said 75,000 times in this thread, history shows that system re-intensify once they near the Hawaiian Islands

Only way this does not make it is if it stalls like the GFS is forecasting

[Cyclenall]

...No way Daniel makes it to Hawaii as anything larger than a Depression. Daniel is already on his way out, and the next stretch of ocean is well known for being a graveyard of East Pacific long-trackers like Jova and Kenneth last year.

Hurricane Daniel already got past the East Pacific graveyard. From now on the water temps will be nearly the same with it warmer near the Hawaii islands. Therefore, Daniel should not die yet. Another thing, the conditions when Jova and Kenneth were around were not the same so the same thing will not happen.

[cycloneye]

WTPA31 PHFO 250230
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006
500 PM HST MON JUL 24 2006

AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.3 WEST OR ABOUT 875 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1080 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HONOLULU...OAHU.

DANIEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...16.1 N...142.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

537
WTPA41 PHFO 250232
TCDCP1

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052006
500 PM HST MON JUL 24 2006

THE 2224 UTC AMSR INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION IN
SPITE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED CDO SITUATION. DANIEL/S INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT BASED ON A CI NUMBER OF 4.0 FROM PHFO.
AODT HAS A CI OF 4.5 WHILE SAB AND ADT DERIVED A 3.5 VALUE.
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW DANIEL IS SUFFERING THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY
SHEAR...WITH MUCH OF THE CB MASS PUSHED FAR WEST OF THE LLCC. CLOUD
TOPS HAVE UNIFORMLY WARMED AS WELL...JUSTIFYING THE REDUCED INITIAL
INTENSITY. THE 64 KT WIND RADIUS WAS REDUCED TO 10 NM...WHILE THE 12
FEET SEAS RADIUS AT TAU THREE WAS REDUCED FURTHER FROM THE 2100 UTC
RADIUS TO MATCH THE GALE RADIUS.

DANIEL/S INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THIS PROMPTED A
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE
FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE 2100
TRACK. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
TO THE RIGHT A BIT...NOW FALLING SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE FORECAST
TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK NOW REPRESENTS A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
CONSENSUS AND GFN GUIDANCE...THE NOGAPS VERSION OF GFDL...BETWEEN
72 AND 120 HOURS. FORECAST MOTION THROUGH 96 HOURS HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO CORRESPOND TO INITIAL MOTION AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE. ONCE AGAIN...FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NICELY PACKED...WITH
GFDL...BAMD AND LBAR REPRESENTING THE RIGHT OUTLIERS. VANILLA NOGAPS
AND GFS REPRESENT THE LEFT OUTLIERS.

WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES DANIEL OVER 25 DEGREES C WATER
THROUGH 72 HOURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE WARMER WATER AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PASSING LEE OF THE ISLANDS...DANIEL
MAY PASS OVER WATER AS WARM AS 27 OR 28 DEGREES C AT 120 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...BASED ON UW-CIMMS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...ECMWF AND WRF
SHOWS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE BEYOND 72 HOURS. WHILE GFS NO LONGER
WANTS TO RE-INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS...IT DOES
MAINTAIN CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS. ALL OTHER GUIDANCE
SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST ECHOES THIS GRADUAL
WEAKENING...WITH DANIEL STILL AT 50 KT AT 120 HOURS.

THIS FORECAST WILL BRING DANIEL ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A
RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 16.1N 142.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 16.1N 143.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 16.4N 145.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 16.8N 146.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 17.3N 148.6W 55 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 18.3N 152.3W 50 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 19.6N 156.3W 50 KT
120HR VT 30/0000Z 21.3N 160.8W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[cycloneye]

Here is the 5 PM HST forecast track Graphic.

[JonathanBelles]

why will it turn back to the wnw to nw?

[Extremeweatherguy]

When was the last time Hawaii was hit by a strong TS?

[whereverwx]

This webpage, HURRICANES In Hawaii, is an interesting site with tons of information and graphics.

[gatorcane]

if it will be a hurricane the first US hit of 2006 will ironically be from the EPAC, think about that.

[gatorcane]

technically it would be from the CPAC.

[HURAKAN]

if it will be a hurricane the first US hit of 2006 will ironically be from the EPAC, think about that.

Daniel is falling apart very quickly. If it reaches Hawaii it will do so as a tropical storm. As of now, the big area of low pressure over Hawaii is killing him.

[HURAKAN]

If things don't change, what will affect Hawaii will be Daniel's ghost.

[HURAKAN]

Movies:

Daniel 2000:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2000 ... niel00.mpg

Dora 1999:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/1999 ... dora99.mpg

None of these systems had to encounter the trough that this Daniel is encountering.

[Hohwxny]

If things don't change, what will affect Hawaii will be Daniel's ghost.

I'm sorry, you must not have seen Derek's post above in the thread:

and as I have said 75,000 times in this thread, history shows that system re-intensify once they near the Hawaiian Islands

Only way this does not make it is if it stalls like the GFS is forecasting.

Just remember that before you go out and say that Daniel won't survive.