Hurricane Ileana in EPAC Thread

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cycloneye
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Hurricane Ileana in EPAC Thread

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 19, 2006 6:06 pm

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

From the 4:00 PM PDT TWO.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

If this system develops into a named cyclone the next name on the EPAC list is Ileana.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Aug 23, 2006 10:30 am, edited 12 times in total.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 19, 2006 6:19 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982006) ON 20060819 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060819 1800 060820 0600 060820 1800 060821 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.0N 96.6W 10.3N 97.9W 10.5N 98.9W 10.6N 99.9W
BAMM 10.0N 96.6W 10.4N 97.9W 10.5N 98.9W 10.6N 100.2W
LBAR 10.0N 96.6W 10.3N 97.8W 10.7N 99.1W 10.9N 100.6W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 36KTS 46KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 36KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060821 1800 060822 1800 060823 1800 060824 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.8N 101.2W 12.4N 105.2W 15.0N 110.2W 17.5N 114.4W
BAMM 10.9N 101.6W 12.3N 105.6W 14.8N 110.6W 17.4N 114.6W
LBAR 11.1N 102.6W 13.0N 108.1W 16.4N 113.9W 21.1N 117.8W
SHIP 55KTS 70KTS 74KTS 75KTS
DSHP 55KTS 70KTS 74KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 96.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 95.3W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 94.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#3 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Aug 19, 2006 6:22 pm

Sometimes East Pacific Hurricanes make landfall on Mexico and can move up towards Texas. I remember that's how the October 15-19, 1994 flood happened in Southeast Texas. Hurricane Rosa, a category 1, which made landfall on Mexico then moved northeast towards Texas. Its remnant stalled and all the moisture was drawn because a of upper level trough, a high pressure system over Canada, and slow moving Pacific front. Up to 32 inches of rain fell, including 24 hour rainfall amounts of up to 24 inches. A large area of Southeast Texas got rain.
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#4 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Aug 19, 2006 6:32 pm

Well, what do you know? I suspected this area might be the next invest, although I didn't think it would happen so soon.
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 19, 2006 6:36 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Well, what do you know? I suspected this area might be the next invest, although I didn't think it would happen so soon.


I guess that one of the factors this system is organizing more quicker is because of this:

Image

The MJO (Madden Julien Occillation) is in the wet phase in the EPAC now.
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#6 Postby bombarderoazul » Sat Aug 19, 2006 7:11 pm

I'm a EPAC fan, unlike most people here, so I am not sad or mad that the Atlantic hurricane season is being slow. I was born in El Salvador, and many EPAC storms are born off our coast, but they rarely hit land.
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#7 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Aug 19, 2006 7:40 pm

I'm watching this one. Two of the Big Guns - the ECMWF and GFS - are developing this system into a powerful hurricane by a Global's standards. Now, given the likely northerly trajectories into a weakness in the subtropical ridge, it won't get that powerful before crossing cooler waters, but just something to ponder about.
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 19, 2006 7:42 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982006) ON 20060820 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060820 0000 060820 1200 060821 0000 060821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.7N 98.0W 10.9N 99.1W 10.9N 100.1W 10.9N 101.3W
BAMM 10.7N 98.0W 10.9N 99.1W 10.9N 100.3W 11.0N 101.6W
LBAR 10.7N 98.0W 11.1N 99.7W 11.7N 101.3W 12.1N 103.2W
SHIP 25KTS 36KTS 49KTS 60KTS
DSHP 25KTS 36KTS 49KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060822 0000 060823 0000 060824 0000 060825 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.9N 102.9W 12.1N 106.8W 14.1N 111.1W 16.0N 114.7W
BAMM 11.2N 103.2W 12.3N 107.0W 14.3N 111.1W 16.4N 114.4W
LBAR 12.6N 105.5W 14.8N 111.1W 18.7N 116.2W 23.3N 119.6W
SHIP 70KTS 82KTS 83KTS 82KTS
DSHP 70KTS 82KTS 83KTS 82KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 98.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.9N LONM12 = 96.1W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 94.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

Ship takes it up to 83kts.
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#9 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Aug 19, 2006 7:49 pm

Could this be the storm that some of the models are showing a very powerful hurricane? We will see.
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2006 6:22 am

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201018
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HECTOR...CENTERED ABOUT 1460 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:44 am

ABPZ20 KNHC 201637
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM HECTOR...CENTERED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING ORGANIZED AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM HEADS GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

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#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2006 1:57 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982006) ON 20060820 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060820 1800 060821 0600 060821 1800 060822 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.7N 99.6W 10.8N 100.8W 11.0N 102.2W 11.4N 103.9W
BAMM 10.7N 99.6W 11.0N 100.9W 11.3N 102.3W 11.7N 104.1W
LBAR 10.7N 99.6W 10.9N 100.6W 11.5N 102.3W 12.3N 104.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060822 1800 060823 1800 060824 1800 060825 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 106.0W 14.6N 110.8W 16.8N 114.9W 18.7N 118.0W
BAMM 12.6N 106.3W 15.0N 110.9W 17.3N 114.8W 19.5N 117.8W
LBAR 13.6N 107.8W 16.9N 114.2W 20.2N 119.2W 20.9N 119.1W
SHIP 64KTS 77KTS 78KTS 72KTS
DSHP 64KTS 77KTS 78KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 99.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 98.8W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 97.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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#13 Postby WmE » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:15 pm

A TCFA has been issued!!

WTPN21 PHNC 202030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7N 99.5W TO 11.9N 103.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7N 99.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 10.7N 099.6W, APPROXIMATELY
365 NM SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING
NEAR A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 200108Z QUIKSCAT PASS
AND A 201702Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED UPON INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 212030Z.
//
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#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2006 6:09 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202227
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HECTOR...CENTERED ABOUT 1355 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

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#15 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Aug 20, 2006 6:45 pm

I think this has a very good chance at becoming a depression tomorrow or even tonight. It's been getting better organized all day and with the models showing a powerful hurricane coming out of this, I think it's almost safe to say this will form.
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#16 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 20, 2006 7:31 pm

SHIPS still peaking at 78kts.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982006) ON 20060821 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060821 0000 060821 1200 060822 0000 060822 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.9N 100.1W 11.2N 101.5W 11.5N 103.1W 12.2N 105.0W
BAMM 10.9N 100.1W 11.3N 101.6W 11.8N 103.3W 12.5N 105.3W
LBAR 10.9N 100.1W 11.3N 101.4W 12.2N 103.5W 13.4N 106.1W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 54KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 43KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060823 0000 060824 0000 060825 0000 060826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 107.3W 15.5N 111.9W 17.6N 115.9W 19.3N 119.1W
BAMM 13.6N 107.7W 15.7N 112.2W 17.8N 116.1W 19.6N 119.2W
LBAR 14.9N 108.9W 18.2N 114.6W 21.0N 119.1W 21.3N 119.7W
SHIP 65KTS 77KTS 76KTS 69KTS
DSHP 65KTS 77KTS 76KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 100.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 99.3W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 98.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 20, 2006 8:52 pm

Image

Still has to organize a bit more to then be a TD but slowly is getting there.
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#18 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Aug 20, 2006 9:04 pm

This looks alot more organized then the caribbean system by far. I say once it forms convection over the LLC. In which the quickscats now show closed. Then we will have a depression.
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#19 Postby clfenwi » Mon Aug 21, 2006 1:59 am

TPPZ1 KGWC 210623
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO
B. 21/0531Z (68)
C. 10.2N/3
D. 100.5W/6
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T1.5/1.5/STT D0.5/3HRS -21/0531Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 3.5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. FT BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

AODT: N/A

CRUZ/CAMPBELL

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982006) ON 20060821 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060821 0600 060821 1800 060822 0600 060822 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 100.9W 11.7N 102.5W 12.4N 104.1W 13.4N 106.0W
BAMM 11.3N 100.9W 11.9N 102.6W 12.6N 104.4W 13.5N 106.5W
LBAR 11.3N 100.9W 11.8N 102.4W 12.9N 104.6W 14.3N 107.2W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060823 0600 060824 0600 060825 0600 060826 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 108.2W 17.2N 112.4W 19.7N 116.2W 21.7N 119.3W
BAMM 14.7N 108.8W 17.2N 113.0W 19.5N 116.5W 21.4N 119.4W
LBAR 15.8N 110.0W 19.1N 115.2W 22.2N 118.7W 24.0N 119.6W
SHIP 64KTS 76KTS 74KTS 64KTS
DSHP 64KTS 76KTS 74KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 100.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 99.8W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 98.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:51 am

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982006) ON 20060821 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060821 1200 060822 0000 060822 1200 060823 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 102.0W 12.6N 103.7W 13.6N 105.5W 14.9N 107.7W
BAMM 12.0N 102.0W 12.7N 103.8W 13.7N 105.8W 14.9N 108.1W
LBAR 12.0N 102.0W 12.7N 103.8W 14.2N 106.1W 15.8N 108.7W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060823 1200 060824 1200 060825 1200 060826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.3N 109.9W 18.8N 114.0W 21.0N 117.6W 22.9N 121.1W
BAMM 16.2N 110.4W 18.6N 114.5W 20.6N 118.1W 22.5N 121.6W
LBAR 17.3N 111.4W 20.4N 116.0W 23.3N 119.6W 24.8N 122.1W
SHIP 66KTS 76KTS 71KTS 61KTS
DSHP 66KTS 76KTS 71KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 102.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 100.3W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 99.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
21/1145 UTC 12.1N 101.8W T1.0/1.0 98E -- East Pacific Ocean
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