Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[Derek Ortt]

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#1 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88874


#2 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88907

[Lifesgud2]

With what??? Ernesto is bye bye...

[Stephanie]

With what??? Ernesto is bye bye...

Do you have something to back that up with?

[cycloneye]

With what??? Ernesto is bye bye...

And,what do you have to sustain your statement?

[Lifesgud2]

Sure... Just look at the sat pic. I am sure you can somehow find it. Bye Bye Ernieeeeeeeee...Listen, I am not here to get everyone excited about this, just my 2 cents...There is no momentum with this storm. Will you be shocked to find that this will be a 35 MPH storm in the morning????? Please answer that...

[wxman57]

I plotted some models. Took out the "junk" ones on this plot (BAMs, LBAR, XTRAP, ETA, etc.):

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto48.gif

On this one, I just plotted the last NHC track and the CONU and CGUN. I think the CGUN is a consensus model, a combination of GFDL, UKMET, and NOGAPS. The CONU is made up of at least 3 of 5 or 6 different models. It's a pretty darn good model much of the time, that's why the NHC track is very close to it:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto49.gif

[CronkPSU]

With what??? Ernesto is bye bye...

i doubt the people of haiti and cuba are saying it is nothing and has gone bye bye...i don't understand why people get on here and post that kind of thing...even a 50 mph Trop Storm can do real damage and adversely affect people's lives for years...show a little class wontcha?

[Tertius]

With what??? Ernesto is bye bye...

That is opinion, not fact, and it is backed up by exactly nothing. I think I'll give it the respect it deserves......

[Aquawind]

Pretty good agreement..

[tallywx]

wxman57, those look like perfect tracks to get some beneficial rains up here in the Raleigh/Durham area. Hopefully Cuba kills this thing well enough so that it doesn't come into Florida any stronger than a strong TS and then spread drought-busting rains up the Eastern Seaboard.

[Opal storm]

Not looking good for the Tampa area.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Does not a ULL to the NE of a TC help?

[Aquawind]

Well the deep convection with the highest tops have stopped refiring.. waiting for the next hot tower to pop..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[tolakram]

I'm a rank amateur at hurricane tracking but I noticed they jogged the center north last run and now, looking at the latest infrared, it looks like the center might have continue northward, which would explain the continued ragged appearance (still close to shore). Any thoughts on this?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[Frank P]

I plotted some models. Took out the "junk" ones on this plot (BAMs, LBAR, XTRAP, ETA, etc.):

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto48.gif

On this one, I just plotted the last NHC track and the CONU and CGUN. I think the CGUN is a consensus model, a combination of GFDL, UKMET, and NOGAPS. The CONU is made up of at least 3 of 5 or 6 different models. It's a pretty darn good model much of the time, that's why the NHC track is very close to it:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto49.gif

wxman57... looking at that forecast trajectory and steep angle it approaches the Florida coastline, how will it be able to generate any significant storm surge.... even if it were to strengthen,, most of the wind field would be over land... not going to be able to pile up much water coming in at that angle... so if this comes to fruition surge should not be that devastating even it it strengthens...... I remembered during Elena back in 1985 she came in at a pretty good angle and the max surge in front of my house was only 8 feet... and she was at least a strong Cat 2 if my memory doesn't fail me...

[Thatsmrhurricane]

And where is the center? 18N 74W?

Edit for 18? Duh

[cycloneye]

And where is the center? 20N 74W?

Per 8 PM Advisory=18.2n-74.4w.

[frederic79]

Quick question for the pro mets... assuming Ernesto survives, what, if any, track implications would the unexpected slower forward speed have. Looking at previous projections, Ernie is about 24 hours behind schedule. Could this storm possibly stay weak enough and move slow enough to miss the trough altogether? I think this has happened before in the past and the trough lifts out and the ridge builds in.

[wxman57]

I plotted some models. Took out the "junk" ones on this plot (BAMs, LBAR, XTRAP, ETA, etc.):

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto48.gif

On this one, I just plotted the last NHC track and the CONU and CGUN. I think the CGUN is a consensus model, a combination of GFDL, UKMET, and NOGAPS. The CONU is made up of at least 3 of 5 or 6 different models. It's a pretty darn good model much of the time, that's why the NHC track is very close to it:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto49.gif

wxman57... looking at that forecast trajectory and steep angle it approaches the Florida coastline, how will it be able to generate any significant storm surge.... even if it were to strengthen,, most of the wind field would be over land... not going to be able to pile up much water coming in at that angle... so if this comes to fruition surge should not be that devastating even it it strengthens...... I remembered during Elena back in 1985 she came in at a pretty good angle and the max surge in front of my house was only 8 feet... and she was at least a strong Cat 2 if my memory doesn't fail me...

You are quite correct. The key to a large storm surge is the volume of water that's pushed into the coast. A relatively small storm with a short onshore fetch and a shallow angle of approach to the coast will generate a lot lower storm surge. So if a "normal" Cat 1 hurricane hitting the coast head on there might produce a 6-9 ft surge, Ernesto as a Cat 1 may produce a 3-6 ft surge (or less). Surge may be higher in bays/inlets. As always, your mileage may vary.....

[miamicanes177]

is it me or does it look to have taken a big northward jump?