Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

[Brent]

Thread 1 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88874

Thread 2 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88907

Thread 3 http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88951

[BensonTCwatcher]

Ok,

I'll have another serving of crow ( pass the hotsauce) I did not see an east FL or east coast scenario. Of course it hasn't happened yet. The strong ridge that was supposed to be in place may still guide the storm on a more westerly track, albeit a timing thing. The SW FL folks should be prepared until this is well N of their lattitude. The NHC track makes the most sense, but the synoptic set up looks like everything from no US landfall to a zig zag across the FL peninsula.

I think this looks like a typical late August scenario for the east coast; The position of the Bermuda high will be the main steering mechanism for the system once it is N of the Miami area ( presuming it stays on the east side of FL) I think by that time all the really unpredictable stuff will be over, and we will be focused on intensity and wobbles given the curvature of the coastline. In other words looks like from a strong TS to a strong Cat 2 from Savannah to OBX I guess this is why we are all addicted to tracking these things

[jimvb]

I just took a look at http://www.granma.cu . Now they have an article on Ernesto - but not the main headline. I am not sure where Hurakan got his copy of Granma. Was it from the web or was it hard copy that was scanned?

[gatorcane]

looks like Ernesto continues to wobble north searching for the "water" - latest frames show a NNW wobble - we need to hope for it feel the ridge while over Cuba or it could mean a dramatic change in the intensity forecast.

[tgenius]

I'm getting my gas at 2am Gatorcane, I refuse to get into long lines...

[CocoCreek]

looks like Ernesto continues to wobble north searching for the "water" - latest frames show a NNW wobble - we need to hope for it feel the ridge while over Cuba or it could mean a dramatic change in the intensity forecast.

Seems to be moving kind of slow too doesn't it?

[Sanibel]

I was just about to post the same thing. NHC has underestimated ridge strengths recently. The Florida west coast should stay alert since that potential track would involve more overwater time coming up from the Straits.

[gatorcane]

I was just about to post the same thing. NHC has underestimated ridge strengths recently. The Florida west coast should stay alert since that potential track would involve more overwater time coming up from the Straits.

Yes anybody in the cone should be concerned.......which includes the entire peninsula of Florida might I add

[westmoon]

we need to hope for it feel the ridge while over Cuba or it could mean a dramatic change in the intensity forecast.

Are you thinking it will be stronger or weaker??

[gatorcane]

we need to hope for it feel the ridge while over Cuba or it could mean a dramatic change in the intensity forecast.

Are you thinking it will be stronger or weaker??

I think the mountains are causing some erratic motion but once it pops out over the straits I do concur with the NHC and forecast a more NW motion.

[wjs3]

we need to hope for it feel the ridge while over Cuba or it could mean a dramatic change in the intensity forecast.

Are you thinking it will be stronger or weaker??

Just to try to "translate" here...I think the point being made is that if the storm feels the ridge, it will move more east-west and stay over Cuba longer...so weaker becasue of land interaction...IF that happens.

[CrazyC83]

Right now it seems likely Ernesto will emerge as a 35mph TD, but that means very little...the conditions are favorable for rapid intensification. I am currently working on a new prediction.

[westmoon]

thanks, I wasn't sure where you were going with that.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Right now you can clearly see the ridge coming over top of Ernesto right now and cloud pattern above him is flattening out...WWd Jog to follow..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Blown Away]

Zoom in, Ernesto seemed to split the to major mountainous areas along the S coast.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... =flashtool

[gatorcane]

Well I will argue my point - I REALLY think Ernesto is looking much better with each hour and is really positioning itself for some rapid intensification once it emerges over the FL straits.

Latest AVN shows alot of deep reds now showin up in Eastern Cuba:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[TampaFl]

[Sanibel]

The center vortex is disappearing on visible meaning land could be weakening it back into a wave-like TD.

Now we wait for re-emergence. If you have things to do, do them now because this will be over land for the rest of today.


Glad somebody else observes terrain. Yes, Ernesto split the high ranges to its left and right and went through the most favorable gap.

[Wthrman13]

Overall, Ernesto is pretty disorganized right now. The LLC looks broad and elongated E-W (pretty much like it has been ever since this time yesterday, actually). Radar, however, shows a fairly vigorous MLC near the north Coast of Cuba, and there could be a tighter LLC underneath that. In the upper levels, at least in the short term, the UL north of the system continues to dive SW and is now imparting some light NW shear, restricting the outflow in that quadrant. I expect this to be a short-term problem though, as the UL looks fairly weak, and as it continues SW, it should end up in a favorable position to enhance outflow, similar to what happened with the other UL that is now located near the BOC. I expect the storm to emerge off the northeast coast of Cuba within the next couple of hours, and probably start to restrengthen after that, although it could take a while.

[Stormavoider]

Look at this loop!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19.5&lon=-75.5&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=spect.pal