TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[tgenius]

#5 reached 25 page limit.

[Jevo]

Looks like we have an interesting morning indeed.... NHC forecast is not much different than 11PM... At this point its anybodys game.... I guess its all relavtive to your view of the storm from where you live to figure out a forecast track..... Thats what makes storms like these fun... I personally am going to back the models and forecasters and call for a shot up Florida's spine as a TS min cat 1 JMHO

[tgenius]

My bigger concern is that 24 hr over water... if thats the case, then I think we may see a strong TS come landfall time, with the NE Quad ("dirty side" affecting Dade county)

[johngaltfla]

Matt, your analysis of the high pressure appears to me to be spot on. My question as from the previous thread is do you think that weakness will be enough to steer it more NNW or are we looking for a WNW to NW movement for the next 24 hours. If this storm crosses 82W, I figure we're in for a Cat 1 at least, especially when it passes the Keys.

[tgenius]

From what I can see on IR, the convection seems to be firing pretty symmetrically at the moment...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Ernie just looks so close to FL, how is he expected to be over water for 24 hrs?

[johngaltfla]

From what I can see on IR, the convection seems to be firing pretty symmetrically at the moment...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Ernie just looks so close to FL, how is he expected to be over water for 24 hrs?

If it moves WNW to NW, and I mean a true 290 to 315, then it will not come ashore in Monroe County. It will start to parallel the coast up to Marco Island, IMO.

[xraymike1]

Tgenius you have to remember that even though it looks close for 22,000 miles up it is still about 235+ miles from Miami, Fl. and moving about at about 14mph so with wiggles, wobbles and other motions it is at least 20 hours off shore. I have never seen one move in a straight line for long..

[cpdaman]

he's got 15 hours over water then he is in the middle keys

22.6 78.9 5 am

23.0 79.4 8am 50mph

23.4 79.8 11am 50mph

23.8 80.2 2pm 55mph

24.2. 80.6 5pm 65mph

24.7 80.9 8pm (landfall middle keys 70mph

25.1 81.0 11pm 75mph

25.6 81.0 2am 2'nd landfall sw florida (unpopulated areas) 75-80mph

[caneman]

he's got 15 hours over water then he is in the middle keys

21.6 78.9 5 am

23.0 79.4 8am 50mph

23.4 79.8 11am 50mph

23.8 80.2 2pm 55mph

24.2. 80.6 5pm 65mph

24.7 80.9 8pm (landfall middle keys 70mph

25.1 81.0 11pm 75mph

25.6 81.0 2am 2'nd landfall sw florida (unpopulated areas) 75-80mph

25.6 81.1 5am inland sw florida

Keys won't afftect him at all. If he gets West of the Keys and buys several more hours. Could make the difference of at least a Category,

[SouthFloridawx]

Well that is rather rapidly intensifying for only 15 hours don't you think?

[Deathray]

Useful Links?

Current Wind Field

Latest Camaguey, Cuba radar loop

Nassua, Bahamas radar loop: Caution loads slowly

Miami, FL Radar - Long Range Reflectivity

Tropclass (T-scale?)

GOES satellites

Computer Model Tracks

Personally, as far as I can see, every model that has updated at 29/0600z has shifted this westward... Wonder what the other models will show when they update. Also, looks like the storm is still maintaining a more western motion, still seems west-northwest

(thought i'd post the links in one go so people don't have to search at odd places

[caneman]

Well that is rather rapidly intensifying for only 15 hours don't you think?

From what I can tell there is 0 wind shear from where he is to the SW coast. We saw Charley go from Cat. 1 to Cat. 4 in no time. I think if he comes in on the West around Naples to Ft. Meyers. Yeah I could see 90 mph.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Matt, your analysis of the high pressure appears to me to be spot on. My question as from the previous thread is do you think that weakness will be enough to steer it more NNW or are we looking for a WNW to NW movement for the next 24 hours. If this storm crosses 82W, I figure we're in for a Cat 1 at least, especially when it passes the Keys.

If has to do with cyclones strength. If weak then it will be steered by the lower levels. Which will turn it northwestward into Florida then northward. If it strengthens into a storm that is steered from a higher level around 500 millibars then a more west-northwest to northwest track can be expected for the next 24 hours. This weakness will turn it north theres no quastion but when is the quastion. I say if this thing bombs/IRC then west coast Florida has some chance of getting a cane.

[tampawx]

Thanks Deathray....great links!

[caneman]

[quote="Deathray"]Useful Links?

Current Wind Field

Latest Camaguey, Cuba radar loop

Nassua, Bahamas radar loop: Caution loads slowly

Miami, FL Radar - Long Range Reflectivity



Tropclass (T-scale?)




Take a look at the current 5:00 Advisory. The 06z plots are right on while the systems is currently West of the 0z plots. Looks like it will have extra time over water. Watch it Tampa to Ft. Myers

[cpdaman]

yes it could and is a going to be a very close call

if he starts gaining more latitude than longitude on each advisory like i expect he prob wont make it to west coast

if he goes back to a wnw/nw 300degree motion than this could be more intresting

[Normandy]

Well that is rather rapidly intensifying for only 15 hours don't you think?

From what I can tell there is 0 wind shear from where he is to the SW coast. We saw Charley go from Cat. 1 to Cat. 4 in no time. I think if he comes in on the West around Naples to Ft. Meyers. Yeah I could see 90 mph.

In all fairness, Charley entered the Gulf a major hurricane

[tgenius]

yes it could and is a going to be a very close call

if he starts gaining more latitude than longitude on each advisory like i expect he prob wont make it to west coast

if he goes back to a wnw/nw 300degree motion than this could be more intresting

I expect 60mph TS if things continue, however I wonder if that NAM (or was it NOGAPS) that stalled it through South FL?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We will just have to see when theres enough of a weakness to do it. If it stays weak this will likely start feeling it with in the next 3 or 4 hours. If it bombs or go through a IRC then a west-northwest movement is likely through the keys. With time the weakness should grow stronger intill all parts of the Atmosphere takes this northward. So any where from 3 hours form now a more northwest(Really so) or 24 hours from now.

For John, in case you can't understand that last post I made.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

what time do the other models update that haven't come in yet?