TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

[THead]

Carry on.........

[rnbaida]

i give up on this system...I bet it is a TD right now....

[skufful]

"I am seeing a more NW-NNW movement and not totally north. If this hugs the east coast it could likely produce a fairly decent amount of rain in the state."

Seems too far West already to ride up the coast, Yes?

[tgenius]

There's gonna be alot of upset business owners in the morning, they lost serious business over this. Yes, they went to err on side of caution,but won't stop the complainers...

[SouthFloridawx]

The ridge is moving more quickly to the east than the models have shown. They will make the correction tonight as the new data is input. This is going to move more east of the track than expected. It is easy to see.

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/R ... e_anim.gif

http://img182.imageshack.us/img182/1221/14co7.jpg
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

so ernesto will move more to the east than expected???

I am not expecting too much of a shift eastward... still within the NHC's cone of error. But maybe 15-25 miles east of the forecast "line".

EDIT: My numbers above.

[THead]

"I am seeing a more NW-NNW movement and not totally north. If this hugs the east coast it could likely produce a fairly decent amount of rain in the state."

Seems too far West already to ride up the coast, Yes?

Still appears to me to be heading right towards Key Largo, looks darn near due north on the latest frames, so who knows, its possible to go right up the east coast.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes

[deltadog03]

This HASN'T and WILL NOT strengthen. WHY? Well, just run the radar loop out of miami. Then look west towards key west. Notice how all that precip is racing NW. Ernie is getting sheared like mad crazy.

[skufful]

"I am seeing a more NW-NNW movement and not totally north. If this hugs the east coast it could likely produce a fairly decent amount of rain in the state."

Seems too far West already to ride up the coast, Yes?

Still appears to me to be heading right towards Key Largo, looks darn near due north on the latest frames, so who knows, its possible to go right up the east coast.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes

And hopefully on out to sea.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Ernesto doesn't look like its getting sheared.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

It still looks like a TS to me.

[Grease Monkey]

"I am seeing a more NW-NNW movement and not totally north. If this hugs the east coast it could likely produce a fairly decent amount of rain in the state."

Seems too far West already to ride up the coast, Yes?

Still appears to me to be heading right towards Key Largo, looks darn near due north on the latest frames, so who knows, its possible to go right up the east coast.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=AMX&loop=yes

I'm started to see more of what you mean now. It does appear to be moving NNW in that loop.

[AJC3]

Winds at the lower and middle keys have started to back around to NW-NNW. Center looks to pass between Long Key and Molasses Reef C-mans, head across Florida Bay with a Glades landfall east of the Flamingo fish camp.

lol, Flamingo fish camp? I'm not familiar with FL... where is that (lat/long)?

http://tinyurl.com/zam9g

[tgenius]

Is there any likelyhood that the rain will start to wrap around the bottom of the COC? I can't believe that one band of rain is all we will get from this...

[Grease Monkey]

Ernesto doesn't look like its getting sheared.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

It still looks like a TS to me.

You can tell his convection is thinning out on the east side. Also if you look at the vis loop, it looks like just about all his convection no longer looks as deep.

Edit:

That might just be the suns angle playing tricks. Not sure what to make of it right now.

[robbielyn]

Business owners maybe upset but they shouldn't blame the nhc. Why? Because this was a backwards upside down crazy acting storm thanks to all the ull that were affecting it. It got affected by three of them each step of the way just when it had a chance shear pulled it north over hispaniola's mountains then into the northeastern cuban mountains.

[mettski]

GOMS 0 v KEYS 1

[THead]

Is there any likelyhood that the rain will start to wrap around the bottom of the COC? I can't believe that one band of rain is all we will get from this...

You'll get more than one band, you're going to get the "core", such as it is. You might get a better look at the southern section of Ernie as he progresses north, from the Key West radar.

[tgenius]

So we will actually get something more than this? Will we even get any wind since there doesn't appear to be any convection on the east/southeast side anymore

[storms in NC]

I don't see him going into a Hurricane after he comes off Fla. Tops TS here in NC or TD

[rnbaida]

This is off topic but what does it mean to be a S2K Supporter?

I always see this but i dont know what it means....

[wxman57]

Here's a very nice radar image on which I've identified the center. It's not far from the coast now:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto63.gif