TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[rnbaida]

lets pick up here.

[storms in NC]

Now wait I am in NC and I have been here from the start.

[dcuevas]

scmedic - I'm sorry you feel that way. I'm here everyday. I don't always post because most of my questions are answered by another poster and I don't want to take up space with unrelated information. Such as this. I just wanted to defend myself and some other Floridians. It is alot for the MODs and they do this for free. ---Off my soap box now.

[ronjon]

Tropical storm force conditions reported at Fowley Rocks - gusts as high as 49 kts with sustaind winds as high as 43 kts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

[storms in NC]

Back to the TD as they called it

[dcuevas]

Where is Fowley Rocks?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060830 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060830 1200 060831 0000 060831 1200 060901 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.0N 81.0W 28.0N 81.3W 30.7N 80.5W 33.6N 79.2W
BAMM 26.0N 81.0W 27.7N 81.0W 29.9N 80.0W 32.3N 78.6W
A98E 26.0N 81.0W 27.7N 81.0W 29.9N 80.7W 32.4N 80.5W
LBAR 26.0N 81.0W 27.7N 81.1W 29.8N 80.6W 32.3N 79.7W
SHIP 30KTS 29KTS 34KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060901 1200 060902 1200 060903 1200 060904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.5N 78.0W 41.8N 74.4W 44.5N 66.6W 40.0N 56.7W
BAMM 34.8N 77.8W 39.6N 76.2W 44.0N 72.6W 45.5N 65.3W
A98E 34.8N 80.2W 38.8N 78.7W 43.5N 73.2W 43.6N 60.1W
LBAR 35.1N 78.4W 39.9N 74.7W 43.5N 73.2W 45.5N 66.1W
SHIP 48KTS 58KTS 62KTS 59KTS
DSHP 32KTS 28KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.0N LONCUR = 81.0W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 24.8N LONM12 = 80.4W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 23.1N LONM24 = 79.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$


In case someone missed this from the other thread,the models downgraded Ernesto to a TD and NHC will follow at 11 AM.

[MBismyPlayground]

Although the national media may have dropped their reports on this storm, the local mets have not. We continue to get hourly updates here. And if this thing DOES pick up again, then there might be some head shaking going on. I for one, am prepared for anything. I am more concerned over flooding that will impact our area with in SC/NC. And remember this storm still will be hitting the gulf stream.
I won't write anything off after last year.

[boca]

Scmedic I'm sorry you feel like that too. You can't single out the whole state of Florida on a few people and some moderators are from Florida too.

[rainbird]

Now wait I am in NC and I have been here from the start.

Ditto - watching, learning and lurking - I am sure there are a lot of members from North Carolina who have been "keeping the watch" from the start - lets get on with the topic at hand please - Thank you -

[UpTheCreek]

I'm in NC and I certainly don't come here except for the real big 'canes or the others that will effect me personally. I'm not much of an enthusiast I guess, just watching out for my own butt.

To those of you that post here often, are enthusiasts and don't like folks like me coming out of the woodwork.....well, too bad!

[krisj]

Now the models look to shift more E? Am I seeing the right?

[storms in NC]

Have to go be back in a few hours to see what is going on and where

[sponger]

We are awfully testy today. Of course once a storm is over land interest drops. Its not going to bomb over the everglades. /when it makes it off the coast we will be watching again to see what happens.


As for Florida is the only state, you can have our pain and suffering any day. Florida has had its butt kicked and if you want a turn, you are welocme to it.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I was at this board when i lived in NC in the 90's and I am at this board now that I live in FL. -and I was at this board's predecessor, or at least the board that many of the Mods started at before they made this board! My name has changed a few times over the years, but like many many others, it has nothing to do with where you live, its about your love of the weather.
Ernesto has been an extreme roller coaster ride for many Floridians. The entire state was literally "under the gun" at some point. Early on we were imagining the impact of a Katrina-like storm on our areas.
The lack of Florida posters is easily explainable...most are having to catch up on the work they have been neglecting to follow the storm! We had lots of weekend posters, and people "cheating" by watching from work the last 2 days. But now that the storm is considered "safe" (not gone), we can resume our lives again.
Thank God.

[krisj]

Hey guys, settle down. We are all testy cause we've been watching this thing for days now.
So PLEASE back to TD Ernesto discussion.

[Okibeach]

Now wait I am in NC and I have been here from the start.

I've been here with you too, just dont post unless I have something to share or a queston to ask. I think it's normal to see less posts once a storm has moved beyond your lattitude, kind of time to take a breather after the adrenaline rush. I am disappointed in the lack of infromation however within the local and national media in getting out info. TWC doesn't even mention the Hurricane watch on the local forecast, just thunderstorms for tommorow and tommorow night. Hope the tourists are aware of whats coming.

[boca]

Its human nature to to go online to various sites and find out about the weather and theirs nothing wrong with being a lurker and going on s2k either when threatening weather occurs.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Check out the reformation attempt ( which failed) near Everglades City.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Notice how Ernesto is all bent out of shape by the ridge?



The slower speed will probably result in a more recurved track if this trend holds

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html


But did anybody notice the anticyclone which Ernesto is about to move under? Betcha we see some changes in the forecast track....perhaps the intensity too. I need to go check the lastest models runs to see if this is showing up Hmmm

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The stall is good for NC I think. It may allow the front a lot more forward progress before it starts absorbing Ernesto's energy. Hopefully the storm will even be shunted off the coast entirely and never make a 2nd landfall!