Invest 97L making a comeback

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 17, 2003 2:53 pm

This morning it weakened big time as convection was scattered and not concentrated.But this afternoon convection is near the low center mainly to it's north and plenty of banding can be seen.The overall circulation looks solid so it is a matter of the easterly shear fading and we may have interesting days ahead.

Lindaloo · #2 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jul 17, 2003 3:14 pm

Is this the one that just blew out of Africa? I am confused.

southerngale · #3 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Jul 17, 2003 3:18 pm

Yeah, here it is Lindaloo...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

Lindaloo · #4 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jul 17, 2003 3:51 pm

Okay.. thanks Kelly.

#5 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 17, 2003 6:25 pm

Actually, it's the one that blew out of Africa 2-3 days ago. And it looks like a ball of convection is separating form the ITCZ this afternoon - a sign of impending development in many cases.

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 17, 2003 6:28 pm

I agree on your words on that 57 as it looks like that is happening now but as I said in my lead post the overall structure of the system remains good.

#7 Postby **wx247** » Thu Jul 17, 2003 6:35 pm

Is the shear forecast to relax soon?

#8 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Jul 17, 2003 8:08 pm

I don't think that shear has been a problem with this disturbance. Conditions appear favorable for development.

#9 Postby **wx247** » Thu Jul 17, 2003 10:27 pm

Okay thanks Wxman57. I thought someone mentioned shear being a problem.

It bears watching, but doesn't look to develop for the next 24 hours or so.

wow · #10 Postby **wow** » Thu Jul 17, 2003 10:29 pm

wx247 wrote:Is the shear forecast to relax soon?

Not in the next 48 hrs or so...

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Jul 17, 2003 10:52 pm

I checked the wind shear map and now the one Wow kindly posted above and the shear sure is low and expected to be low in the next 48 hours (as of now, according to the map above) in that portion of the eastern Atlantic.

#12 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 1:40 am

Definitely looks like we will be watching this one for a while. Very interesting how the portion that was seperating from the ITCZ looked like it just jumped several degrees North as one big ball of convection. Wxman57 or anyone else is this something usual in this situation? It is not something I remeber seeing previously.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 6:19 am

Well this morning it is like status quo or the same as yesterday but as it moves westward it may get better conditions in terms of the enviroment so this one has to be watched even if it is not doing much at this time.

#14 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 7:58 am

Convection dropped off a bit overnight, but visible satellite imagery hints at a lower-level circulation. Dvorak classification went from 1.0 yesterday to "too weak" this morning. It's certainly in no hurry. Probably 48 hours or more from TD stage.

Looking at the GFS for 6-7 days out (when it would be in the east Caribbean), there is a large weakness in the ridge to the north as a trof digs down along the east U.S. coast. Could be this one is destined for Florida, the east U.S. coast, or across Cuba, Bahamas, and out to sea off the east coast.. It would have to remain pretty far south to reach the Gulf.

#15 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 8:08 am

wxman57 wrote:Convection dropped off a bit overnight, but visible satellite imagery hints at a lower-level circulation. Dvorak classification went from 1.0 yesterday to "too weak" this morning. It's certainly in no hurry. Probably 48 hours or more from TD stage.

Looking at the GFS for 6-7 days out (when it would be in the east Caribbean), there is a large weakness in the ridge to the north as a trof digs down along the east U.S. coast. Could be this one is destined for Florida, the east U.S. coast, or across Cuba, Bahamas, and out to sea off the east coast.. It would have to remain pretty far south to reach the Gulf.

Thank goodness!! We could use a little rest in the GOM, especially TX!!! Not wishing ill on anyone else, but can we catch a little break here?

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 4:08 pm

This afternoon it has gained some convection more to the north away from the ITCZ and the overall structure of it mantains in a fair presentation.

JCT777 · #17 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 4:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:This afternoon it has gained some convection more to the north away from the ITCZ and the overall structure of it mantains in a fair presentation.

So do you think it has a chance to become a tropical depression during the next 24 to 36 hours?

Ola · #18 Postby **Ola** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 4:56 pm

Give it one day to increase convection and close up a llc and then 24 more for it to deepen. The low is still broad and it needs a big flareup to close it up. I would say 48 hours should be enough, but even if it doesnt, it could down the road.

JCT777 · #19 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Jul 18, 2003 5:01 pm

Ola wrote:Give it one day to increase convection and close up a llc and then 24 more for it to deepen. The low is still broad and it needs a big flareup to close it up. I would say 48 hours should be enough, but even if it doesnt, it could down the road.

Thanks for the reply, Ola! I will keep an eye on it to see if we have our next TD by the end of the weekend.

Invest 97L making a comeback

Invest 97L making a comeback

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