91C.Invest - Very far to the north (42.5 N, 146.5 W)

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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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#21 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:16 pm

Eastern Pacific satellite loop has switched over!!!

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html
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#22 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:30 pm

Not surprised they took it down...

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#23 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:34 pm

Based one what? It has a eye and is warm core.
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#24 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:37 pm

Based on almost no convection, I suppose? The last IR image on NRL only showed minimal cloud tops to -30ish°C.
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#25 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:43 pm

The convection is near 40 to 50c around the eyewall, and also these kinds of systems don't have deep convection.
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#26 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:44 pm

You may just be right! 91C back on NRL!
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#27 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:47 pm

And FNMOC, too.
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#28 Postby Chacor » Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:54 pm

Yeah, -50°C it seems near the "eye" structure. 25 kt on NRL. Midget system.
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#29 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Nov 01, 2006 9:41 pm

This is surprising. That is very north and in the Central Pacific too. Has a system ever formed that far north in either the Eastern or Central Pacific basins? I haven't heard or seen one. Also the date is like November 1. Does it have what it takes to be a tropical cyclone? Man, I would love recon to go into this. It looks like a mini hurricane that isn't fully tropical. Very cool.
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#30 Postby tbstorm » Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:00 pm

Jim Cantore was just talking about it on the weather channel. He agreed that there was an eye like feature and he commented that the QuickScat indicated that it was a Subtropical Storm.

Pretty cool!Image
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#31 Postby craptacular » Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:08 pm

I was actually looking at the QuikScat page as you posted that ... it was very impressive, with a definite closed center and lots of red (up to 35kt) and even a brown (35-40kt) wind barb.
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#32 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:13 pm

im thinking this is a subtropical storm.
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#33 Postby whereverwx » Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:35 pm

Cool-looking storm.

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#34 Postby Hurricanehink » Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:39 pm

990 mbar, according to NRL.
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#35 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:59 pm

this kind of reminds me a little of the Brazilian mets who said that their hurricane in March 2004 was not a hurricane.

This should be classified, at least as an STS from a scientific standpoint
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#36 Postby Coredesat » Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:02 pm

Still nothing in the CPHC TWO.
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#37 Postby Windspeed » Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:17 pm

This certainly looks like a subtropical storm per satellite imagery now. Subtropical with 30-40kt winds? I am not surprised a surface low could intensify with baroclinic forcing at such a high lat in the eastern Pacific, but I am surprised at its persistance and structure. Derek did bring up an important bit about atmospheric temperatures vs. SSTs with relation to thunderstorm development. No, you do not have to have 26º SSTs to intensify a warm core surface low if your surface air temps are far cooler than the SST temp. Evaporation will still occur and instability will assist in uplift/thunderstorm development. We see plenty of examples of this with storms that have formed in the eastern Atlantic at high latitudes. However, the thing that surprises me about this storm is that there is only a 10º difference between 950mb air temperature and SST temperature. I am surprised there can be enough evaporation to support this, but then again, the thundestorms aren't all that impressive. Pretty fascinating stuff to say the least.

Also, with regards to the "eye" comments, we have seen many times in the past where a strong surface vortex can form in an intensifying surface low that is not purely tropical and the thunderstorms will wrap around a center to give the appearance of an eye. We have seen this occur with several strong nor'easters moving just off the east coast of the U.S. These usually weak thunderstorms are not an eyewall feature, they usually just rotate around a dry region of the center sometimes making the storm look like a hurricane when it is not. This storm appears to be doing the same thing. In contrast, the eye of a hurricane is the result of high pressure and warm, stable sinking air (spent fuel at the top of the wall column) that has nowhere to go but down if too close to the center; though the bulk of the air gets evacuated at the tropopause away from the center thanks to your resulting upper-level high. Of course, most of you already know this phenomenon well enough. I'm just reminding folks. We don't have that situation here with this particular storm. :)
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#38 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:38 pm

This looks just as good as Vince, in there is no way, this is not a cyclone of subtropical features.
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#39 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:44 pm

The latest loop shows the eye closing off, with the system becoming better organized. It is moving at least 20 mph to the west. So landfall into southern Oregon, just south of me. I know what a tropical cyclone looks like, in this is one.
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#40 Postby Hurricanehink » Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:48 pm

Well, if it reaches 140 W, it could be a good sign. The NHC would more likely classify it than the CPHC. However, I doubt it will last to reach the US.
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