TC Bondo (DISSIPATING)

[Chacor]

ABIO10 PGTW 170230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/170230Z-171800ZDEC2006//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170151ZDEC2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6S, 66.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 65.8E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CON-
VECTION FLARING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
162002Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE DIS-
TURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE 200 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS STRONG WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 170200) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO THE RAPID ORGANIZATION AND IMPROVED CON-
VECTIVE BANDING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO GOOD.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
NNNN

Nothing yet from either RSMC La Réunion-Météo France, or the subregional TCWC in Mauritius. Looks good, though.

[P.K.]

I was just looking at this, it is in the MetArea bulletin but no where else.

SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA VIII (S), METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
MAURITIUS, SUNDAY 17 DECEMBER 2006 .

WIND SPEED IN KNOTS. SEA STATE. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. VISIBILITY.

PART 1 : TTT WARNING OF NEAR GALE

LOW 1004 HPA CENTRED AT 17/0000UTC WITHIN 30 N.M RADIUS OF POINT
8.3 SOUTH 67.0 EAST( LATITUDE EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH
LONGITUDE SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AND WITH A SLOW
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTH WEST MAY CAUSE STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS 20-30 KTS TO EXIST WITHIN 200N.M RADIUS OF CENTRE WITH
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS .SQUALLY WEATHER EXIST WITHIN 200 N.M OF CENTRE
EXTENDING UP TO 500 N.M IN THE NORTH WEST QUADRANT AND 300 N.M IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALL.

PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSIS, AT 170000

.LOW 1004 HPA NEAR 08.3S 67.0 E MOVEMENT SLOW WEST SOUTH WEST.

ITCZ WITH AXIS ALONG 08S 45E,06S 50E,04S 60E,05S 70E,03S 80E.

WAVE NEAR 09S 88E

TROUGH AXIS ALONG 13S 63E,17S 70E,19S 75E.

HIGH 1023HPA NEAR 31S 81E.

IPART 3: AREA FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

8/1: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY 15 GUSTING 30 BECOMING NORTH
EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH.SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY
ROUGH.VISIBILITY GOOD.


8/2: SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH BECOMING EAST
SOUTH EASTERLY TO EASTERLY 15-20 GUSTY IN NORTH. SEA LOCALLY ROUGH.
VISIBILITY GOOD TO LOCALLY MODERATE IN NORTH.


EXTREME NORTH 8/3,SOUTH 8/5:CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15-20 AROUND LOW
NEAR 8.3S 67E.SEA ROUGH .SCATTERED THUNDERY SHOWERS.


REMAINDER 8/3,8/4: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY 15-20
GUSTING 30-35. SEA LOCALLY ROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH. VISIBILITY POOR UNDER SHOWERS IN NORTH AND
MODERATE ELSEWHERE.


REMAINDER 8/5: NORTH WESTERLY TO WESTERLY 10-15. SEA MODERATE TO
ROUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERY SHOWERS. VISIBILITY POOR.


8/6: EAST SOUTH EASTERLY TO SOUTH EASTERLY 10-15 LOCALLY VARIABLE
IN NORTH.SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH UNDER SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBILITY MODERATE BUT POOR IN SHOWERS.


8/7: SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH WESTERLY 10-15 IN SOUTH AND NORTH WESTERLY
TO WESTERLY 15 IN NORTH. SEA MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH UNDER
ISOLATED THUNDERY SHOWWERS.VISIBILITY MODERATE BECOMING POOR UNDER
SHOWERS.




PART 4: OUTLOOK FOR NEXT 24 HOURS:

LOW NEAR 08.3S 67E IS SHOWING INCREASE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ABOUT
THE LLCC AND SO IT IS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING IN RATHER FAVOURABLE
UPPER AIR CONDITION.

T.O.O :=

[P.K.]

The intensity forecast calls for a 60kt severe tropical storm in 72 hours.

WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/12/2006 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 17/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3S / 65.5E
(TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST
) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND ROUGH TO MODERATE SEAS. STRONG GUSTS
UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/12/18 AT 00 UTC:
10.7S / 64.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H, VALID 2006/12/18 AT 12 UTC:
11.0S / 62.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A PROGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.

[Calasanjy]

I'm thinking we may have the first cyclone (hurricane) of the season. It will be Bondo and the projected path is too close to Madagascar for comfort.

And as soon as I posted my storm-by-storm predictions this sucker had to develop and ruin it...heh

[P.K.]

Here is the forecast for the above image from earlier which does indeed take it close to tropical cyclone strength, the next scheduled forecast is not until 1200 GMT tomorrow though.

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/18 00 UTC: 10.7S/64.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2006/12/18 12 UTC: 11.0S/62.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2006/12/19 00 UTC: 10.9S/60.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2006/12/19 12 UTC: 10.8S/58.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 10.6S/56.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 10.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

[Chacor]

Full warnings now.

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


PERTURBATION TROPICALE 03-20062007

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1003 HPA.
POSITION LE 18 DECEMBRE A 04 HEURES LOCALES: 10.8 SUD / 64.5 EST
(DIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE-QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1465 KM AU NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 7 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 11.4S/61.7E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 11.5S/56.8E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 11.3S/53.5E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.

[JonathanBelles]

PERTURBATION TROPICALE is a TD?

[P.K.]

Tropical disturbance. A tropical depression would be a dépression tropicale. Latest forecast calls for a 40kt moderate TS to the end of the forecast period.

[P.K.]

Down to 1000hPa.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/3/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2006/12/18 AT 1200 UTC :
10.8S / 63.1E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST
)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/19 00 UTC: 10.8S/61.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2006/12/19 12 UTC: 10.9S/59.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 11.1S/57.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
48H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 11.1S/55.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
60H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 10.9S/53.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 10.8S/51.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0+
DESPITE RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SITUATION NEAR THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES SLOWLY AND SHOWS A CURVED BAND.
THE TRACK SHOULD REMAIN WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
MORE SUSTAINED MOTION.

[Chacor]

NRL says 05S.

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 62.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM NORTH-
EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-
WARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED POLEWARD
OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREE-
MENT WITH THIS FORECAST AND TRACK THE SYSTEM TOWARD NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
181123Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 05S
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 180121Z
DEC 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 180130).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

[P.K.]

Tropical Depression 03R has formed. The forecast takes this to 60kts in 72 hours.


BULLETIN DU 18 DECEMBRE A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


DEPRESSION TROPICALE 03-20062007

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 998 HPA.
POSITION LE 18 DECEMBRE A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 11.0 SUD / 61.6 EST
(ONZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE ET UN DEGRES SIX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1265 KM AU NORD-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 20 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 11S/57.2E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 11.4S/53.3E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 11.9S/51.2E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
BULLETIN ACTUALISE A 04H30

[P.K.]

Now Moderate Tropical Storm Bondo. The 65kts STS forecast below should say "Tropical Cyclone" at that point.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/3/20062007
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/19 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 60.5E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/19 12 UTC: 11.2S/58.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
24H: 2006/12/20 00 UTC: 11.3S/56.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2006/12/20 12 UTC: 11.4S/53.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2006/12/21 00 UTC: 11.5S/52.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2006/12/21 12 UTC: 11.7S/51.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2006/12/22 00 UTC: 12.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION (CF. TRMM 1948Z DATA). THE UPPER LEVEL CONFIGURATION IS
FAVOURABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWING 2 OUTFLOW
CHANNELS (POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD) ; IN THE LOWER LAYER, THE MONSOON
FLOW IS WEAK.
THE SYSTEM "BONDO" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS,
FOLLOWING A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 59.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED POLEWARD OF
THE SYSTEM. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MADAGASCAR
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STR ALLOWING FOR A SLOW POLEWARD DRIFT BET-
WEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. BY TAU 36 THE TROUGH WILL FILL ALLOWING THE
STR TO BUILD AND REORIENT OVER MADAGASCAR CAUSING A SLIGHT EQUATOR-
WARD TURN AROUND TAU 48. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
181848Z TRMM PASS REVEAL THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING EQUA-
TORWARD OUTFLOW ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.
THROUGH TAU 48 THIS INCREASED OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TC
05S. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//

[HURAKAN]

Northern Madagascar must get ready for hurricane-winds in a few days. Then, maybe Mozambique must watch it.

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

First severe tropical storm of the year here.

BULLETIN DU 19 DECEMBRE A 10H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.
*****************************************************



NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL
PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN


FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE BONDO

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 976 HPA.
POSITION LE 19 DECEMBRE A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 10.5 SUD / 59.5 EST
(DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 1225 KM AU NORD-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST A 18 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 10.3S/54.8E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 10S/50.7E
CYCL. TROP. INTENSE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 11.4S/47.2E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE
PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE
COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA
POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON
EXTENSION.




CE BULLETIN EST A
PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN A 16H30 LOCALES

[HurricaneBill]

An eye has formed. I wouldn't be surprised if Bondo was upgraded to a cyclone later today.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looks like Bondo's gonna become a strong one. Here's the latest advisory that's arrived in my inbox:

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/3/20062007
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/19 AT 0600 UTC :
10.5S / 59.5E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/19 18 UTC: 10.5S/57.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2006/12/20 06 UTC: 10.3S/54.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2006/12/20 18 UTC: 10.0S/52.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2006/12/21 06 UTC: 10.0S/50.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2006/12/21 18 UTC: 10.5S/49.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2006/12/22 06 UTC: 11.4S/47.2E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM "BONDO" HAS RAPIDELY INTENSIFYED LAST NIGTH, WITH A BIULDING
EYE THIS MORNING (CF IMAGE WINDSAT 0154Z).
IT REMAINS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING.

[Chacor]

An eye has formed. I wouldn't be surprised if Bondo was upgraded to a cyclone later today.

No kidding!



19/0230 UTC 10.7S 59.9E T3.5/3.5 BONDO -- South Indian Ocean