ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Alyono]

Could go back to neutral levels some time next week but if the SOI remains in the dump this ENSO warming will come back

the SOI is low because there is a cyclone

[Hurricaneman]

Could go back to neutral levels some time next week but if the SOI remains in the dump this ENSO warming will come back

the SOI is low because there is a cyclone

after thats gone, we will go back to the neutral Enso and SOI again, but what will later values of both be will yet to be determined

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

wow looks like a stock exchange market atm.

[Kingarabian]

January PDO down to +.77.

[Ntxw]

Slightly up to 0.2C. Nino 4 warmed to 0C so no region is cold anymore as of this update

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 2/20/17 that has Nino 3.4 at +0.2C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Hurricaneman]

The latest IRI\CPC plume shows 2 groups with one group right at Neutral while the other group has a borderline Moderate el nino so which one wins out is anyone’s guess

[WeatherEmperor]

The latest IRI\CPC plume shows 2 groups with one group right at Neutral while the other group has a borderline Moderate el nino so which one wins out is anyone’s guess

Are you able to post a graphic with this information?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Ntxw]

There are two clusters, the dynamical models (GFS/Euro/CFSv2/Canadian etc) which are warmer while the statistical (climo models) which are weaker. This is usually always the case this time of year.

[Portastorm]

I've got nothing of fact to add to this discussion but did want to point out that there is some fascinating discussion ongoing on Twitter about "climate shifts" and how the Nino of 97-98 changed the baseline for a lot of these measurements and how the ongoing ENSO conditions may be doing it again. A guy named Sam Lillo started the discussion with this tweet: "Equatorial wind at 20hPa has been westerly for 21 months straight now. And no sign of that changing any time soon."

[Ntxw]

I've got nothing of fact to add to this discussion but did want to point out that there is some fascinating discussion ongoing on Twitter about "climate shifts" and how the Nino of 97-98 changed the baseline for a lot of these measurements and how the ongoing ENSO conditions may be doing it again. A guy named Sam Lillo started the discussion with this tweet: "Equatorial wind at 20hPa has been westerly for 21 months straight now. And no sign of that changing any time soon."

I have to agree that super events are more than just your average Nino or Nina in that they can alter the oceans and atmosphere long after they are gone. And some consequences are well against the norms.

[cycloneye]

What he said. +1

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/834416732018184192

[Hurricaneman]

The thing is currently the ENSO 1\2 is in El Nino territory but that could change very quickly

[Ntxw]

Posted this in the TX thread but worth noting. CFSv2 continues to tick up

CfsV2 is showing a trendline towards a strong El Nino coming. This would be unprecedented in our short history of watching ENSO. I would caution still forecasts of Enso this early but certainly an eye opener.

[gatorcane]

I am starting to wonder if AGW is playing a role here, last few winters have been very warm for the U.S relatively speaking comparing to previous winters, possibly another El Nino now already? The winters here in Florida seem to be nothing like what they used to be when I was growing up. They are MUCH warmer and looking at comments in the Texas winter thread, they are seeing something similar. Perhaps AGW means more El Ninos and turbulence in the atmosphere (for the Atlantic) which means less hurricanes?

[Ntxw]

I am starting to wonder if AGW is playing a role here, last few winters have been very warm for the U.S relatively speaking comparing to previous winters, possibly another El Nino now already? The winters here in Florida seem to be nothing like what they used to be when I was growing up. They are MUCH warmer and looking at comments in the Texas winter thread, they are seeing something similar. Perhaps AGW means more El Ninos and turbulence in the atmosphere (for the Atlantic) which means less hurricanes?

Agw or not, Major El Nino events do warm the globe substantially in itself with super events felt years after they are gone even.

[cycloneye]

Interesting blog about the El Nino noise.

 https://twitter.com/NOAAClimate/status/834810135323299841




https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ome-during

[Ntxw]

To sum up the blog, a series WWB's will be needed to push warm waters and depress the thermocline (volume). We've all witnessed this phenom well with the last big Nino

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like according to Tropical Tidbits the warm anomalies are starting to surface in the 1\2 region and it looks like an El Nino is going to come on but the question will be not whether it will be a traditional or not as it looks like it will be a traditional but how strong.

Another thing that is starting to favour an El Nino is the SOI has been in the negative the last week or so so it would stand the chance that we may get El Nino numbers in all ENSO sectors by either March or April if current trends continue

[cycloneye]

Subsurface warming west of dateline and also at Nino 1+2 area.