ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[TheStormExpert]

El Niño is looking less likely according to the latest CFS.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/856673625260384262

Is it possible the CFS is finally realizing the sub surface cool pools wont be able to sustain a full El Nino event?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Maybe, I'm really starting to believe the only way we can get an El Niño is if it's a Modoki.

[hurricanetrack]

FWIW - the BOM POAMA certainly has "cooled" its jets as of late:

April 23 run of POAMA model - 84% chance of neutral conds by Sept with only 15% chance of .80 or higher.

[Kazmit]

If it does end up developing, in my opinion, a Modoki El Niño seems to look more likely than a traditional one. But I'm still skeptical about the chances of an El Niño forming at all.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/856955194474627072

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Issued 26 April 2017
The ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH. El Niño WATCH means there is around a 50% chance of El Niño developing in 2017, which is approximately twice the normal likelihood.
ENSO is currently neutral, however a warming trend has been observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean since the start of the year. A majority of climate models suggest this warming is likely to continue with El Niño thresholds being met by spring 2017. All atmospheric indicators of ENSO remain neutral.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

[GeneratorPower]

In my opinion, this El Niño isn't happening. It's already on shaky ground with the way the subsurface anomalies are (not). You've basically got a broad, Pacific-basin-wide warming of around 1/4 to 1/2 a degree. It shares some characteristics of an El Niño but I think it's just not happening.

This El Niño threat reminds me of the SPC's High and Moderate risks for severe weather this year. There is some bad weather but overall the threats are being exaggerated. Not intentionally, but still the rumors of our demise are greatly exaggerated.

Not saying my analysis is scientific completely but it has a feel to it. The trend is your friend. And the trend I see is mushy evidence of a supposed weak El Niño supposedly coming on later this year, forecasted by models that have a known predictability barrier in April. Not impressive.

I think at some point the Itty Bitty El Niño Committee taking to Twitter with their fresh-off-the-press copies of unreliable model output back in March are gonna change their tune. We're already seeing some reversals.

[Ntxw]

In my opinion, this El Niño isn't happening. It's already on shaky ground with the way the subsurface anomalies are (not). You've basically got a broad, Pacific-basin-wide warming of around 1/4 to 1/2 a degree. It shares some characteristics of an El Niño but I think it's just not happening.

This El Niño threat reminds me of the SPC's High and Moderate risks for severe weather this year. There is some bad weather but overall the threats are being exaggerated. Not intentionally, but still the rumors of our demise are greatly exaggerated.

Not saying my analysis is scientific completely but it has a feel to it. The trend is your friend. And the trend I see is mushy evidence of a supposed weak El Niño supposedly coming on later this year, forecasted by models that have a known predictability barrier in April. Not impressive.

I think at some point the Itty Bitty El Niño Committee taking to Twitter with their fresh-off-the-press copies of unreliable model output back in March are gonna change their tune. We're already seeing some reversals.

Keep in mind, just because an official Nino may not happen does not mean you won't see El Nino like conditions. In fact this has been happening in the mid latitudes even during the Nina as the +PDO and IO forcings have resembled more Nino. The overall background state of the globe (particularly in the northern latitudes) look more Nino than a Nina. So just because you may not officially see 0.5C does not mean to write off that hurricane seasons or weather patterns won't show Nino. In fact you can make the argument the broad warming is due to this background state imposed to be Nino-like since 2014

You can see the Pacific state wants a Nino per say. Arguably it is what stunted the Nina growth of last year, never got going strong with the PDO never flipping negative.



+PDO on the left, or decadal Nino trends. Negative PDO on the right or Nina decadal trends.

[Yellow Evan]

In my opinion, this El Niño isn't happening. It's already on shaky ground with the way the subsurface anomalies are (not). You've basically got a broad, Pacific-basin-wide warming of around 1/4 to 1/2 a degree. It shares some characteristics of an El Niño but I think it's just not happening.

This El Niño threat reminds me of the SPC's High and Moderate risks for severe weather this year. There is some bad weather but overall the threats are being exaggerated. Not intentionally, but still the rumors of our demise are greatly exaggerated.

Not saying my analysis is scientific completely but it has a feel to it. The trend is your friend. And the trend I see is mushy evidence of a supposed weak El Niño supposedly coming on later this year, forecasted by models that have a known predictability barrier in April. Not impressive.

I think at some point the Itty Bitty El Niño Committee taking to Twitter with their fresh-off-the-press copies of unreliable model output back in March are gonna change their tune. We're already seeing some reversals.

it's April 26. Most ENSO events peak during the wintertime. Not every event is like 2015 and gets started in the spring.

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw, PDO over/under +1.00 for April?

It has indeed taken on a classic horseshoe shape. In fact it's the best its looked since the warm phase flip.

[weathaguyry]

It's been almost a week since we've had any SOI values below -15, and today's value came in at 18.67. I'm not saying that this is going to 100% ward off a Nino, but I'm just saying that if a Nino were to develop, it would have a tough time and probably wouldn't get going until the fall, I know that I shouldn't focus on the daily values, but if the SOI stays positive for any longer, it will really start to chip away at that negative 30 day value

[Alyono]

It's been almost a week since we've had any SOI values below -15, and today's value came in at 18.67. I'm not saying that this is going to 100% ward off a Nino, but I'm just saying that if a Nino were to develop, it would have a tough time and probably wouldn't get going until the fall, I know that I shouldn't focus on the daily values, but if the SOI stays positive for any longer, it will really start to chip away at that negative 30 day value

SOI is meaningless now as there is a cyclone by Darwin

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, PDO over/under +1.00 for April?

It has indeed taken on a classic horseshoe shape. In fact it's the best its looked since the warm phase flip.

Not sure about 1 but could be in the .80s or .90s and more defined than March was

[weathaguyry]

It's been almost a week since we've had any SOI values below -15, and today's value came in at 18.67. I'm not saying that this is going to 100% ward off a Nino, but I'm just saying that if a Nino were to develop, it would have a tough time and probably wouldn't get going until the fall, I know that I shouldn't focus on the daily values, but if the SOI stays positive for any longer, it will really start to chip away at that negative 30 day value

SOI is meaningless now as there is a cyclone by Darwin

Ok, that makes more sense

[Macrocane]

Keep in mind, just because an official Nino may not happen does not mean you won't see El Nino like conditions. In fact this has been happening in the mid latitudes even during the Nina as the +PDO and IO forcings have resembled more Nino. The overall background state of the globe (particularly in the northern latitudes) look more Nino than a Nina. So just because you may not officially see 0.5C does not mean to write off that hurricane seasons or weather patterns won't show Nino. In fact you can make the argument the broad warming is due to this background state imposed to be Nino-like since 2014

You can see the Pacific state wants a Nino per say. Arguably it is what stunted the Nina growth of last year, never got going strong with the PDO never flipping negative.

I agree, a +PDO can have effects in the Atlantic similar to those of an El Niño with higher than normal wind shear and drier air, but surely they won't be as bad as 2015 IMO.

2014 was an anomaly as El Niño started to develop until the end of the year but the Caribbean experienced very high wind shear in the summer. I think no other non El Niño year had such conditions before and I don't believe the +PDO was the only climate pattern to blame.

[Kingarabian]

That cold pool continues its trek east, but the latest frame from April 23 some what seems to shows it smaller in size.

Looks like cool anomalies have already reached 1+2.

[Kingarabian]

It's been almost a week since we've had any SOI values below -15, and today's value came in at 18.67. I'm not saying that this is going to 100% ward off a Nino, but I'm just saying that if a Nino were to develop, it would have a tough time and probably wouldn't get going until the fall, I know that I shouldn't focus on the daily values, but if the SOI stays positive for any longer, it will really start to chip away at that negative 30 day value

Daily values for the 28th should be less positive (if im reading the Euro and GFS correctly). Then we should see big negatives come back around this weekend as the TC over northern Australia moves away and higher pressures build again.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/857678062577741825

[dexterlabio]

How does this year's ENSO state compare with that of 2006?

At this point I think we're in a similar situation as last year when the models were showing a strong La Nina event happening, and we have seen folks easily jumping on the Nina wagon.

[Kingarabian]

How does this year's ENSO state compare with that of 2006?

At this point I think we're in a similar situation as last year when the models were showing a strong La Nina event happening, and we have seen folks easily jumping on the Nina wagon.

Completely different. Cold PDO, Nino regions not as warm compared to this time of the year.

[Kingarabian]

Nino 3.4 should be at least +0.5C for the 2nd straight week. Could be higher if it maintains over the weekend.